2013 Elections in Canada

[RogueBeaver]

Based on the German threads.

The big ones this year are BC and Nova Scotia. It is also widely expected that Ontario will go to the polls this summer once the Liberals elect their next premier.

BC: On or before May 14.

Latest poll (Ipsos-Reid, Nov. 26-30): NDP 48, Liberal 35, Tory 9, Green 7.

NS: TBD

Latest poll (CRA, Nov. 30): Liberal 41, NDP 29, PC 27.

ON: TBD


Latest poll (Forum Research, Dec. 17): PC 33, NDP 31, Liberal 27.

[RogueBeaver]

I like Dexter, will be a bit sad to see him go but no problem for me having a Liberal takeover in NS. Ontario is what really worries me. Though given that Pupatello had a few gaffes recently with the "marvelous" Grit healthcare record and importance of Grit patronage... I'd be a bit more worried about the NDP. If it becomes a personality contest then advantage Horwath.

[RogueBeaver]

No, still a strong majority for the NDP. As much as I dislike Dix I certainly won't be shedding any tears over Clark. Ontario will be the interesting one to watch if it happens. Depends who wins the OLP leadership of course- and no one has name recognition above 40% (closest is Kennedy, who won't win, at 38%). Maybe Glen Murray as a compromise candidate if it stalls between leftie Wynne and rightie Pupatello. However smart money would be on Pupatello.

[RogueBeaver]

Paging Al Fine... and I agree with you that McDonald was a clown.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, Clark's a panderer and shameless opportunist. She'll say whatever sounds like a vote-catcher and claims the outsider mantle despite being the incumbent and having been in government for most of her career. Not of all this was her own doing- Campbell nuked them with the HST train wreck, then the Tory split, a divisive leadership race, in government for 11 years... but she still gets a good of blame. BC dynasties always get vaporized: Social Credit and the NDP ended up like this in their day too. Which means Gateway is dead and buried, I don't know if Dix would be open to an alternate route.

[RogueBeaver]

According to the Star, Wynne narrowly leads Pupatello 1533-1281. Hoping this holds.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1311972--kathleen-wynne-leads-liberal-leadership-race
 

[RogueBeaver]

Any predictions as to who Ontario's next premier will be? I don't have any idea who'll ally with whom on the floor... except that Kennedy will a) probably screw himself again b) not send his delegates to Pupatello.

Ian Macdonald on the troika, put this here for his take on the provincials.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/opinion/Liberals+three+chances+start+over/7791913/story.html

The scheming has begun.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1312268--ontario-liberal-leadership-candidates-in-secret-one-on-one-talks

[RogueBeaver]

Back OT, looks like Wynne is gathering some mo. Rumours that Murray will drop out and endorse her. John Wilkinson is defecting from Pupatello to Wynne.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/wynnes-ontario-liberal-leadership-campaign-gets-key-endorsement/article7152903/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-liberal-leadership-candidates-push-for-peace-with-teachers/article7153498/

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/education-takes-centre-stage-in-ontario-liberal-leadership-debate-1.1107753

[RogueBeaver]

Murray has dropped out and endorsed Wynne.

[RogueBeaver]

I decided to put that stuff here. It'll be over in 2 weeks anyways.

[RogueBeaver]

Per Radwanski's Twitter feed, looks like Pupatello will emerge with a narrow delegate lead in tonight's balloting. Keeping in mind that GTA will only vote later today. 231-200 with Kennedy at 105.

[RogueBeaver]

And if Pupatello wins, the Liberals will have their first seatless premier in eons. Grits better hope she doesn't pull some sort of idiotic stunt that backfires, like Eves' Magna budget.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1314392--ontario-liberals-sandra-pupatello-leads-after-first-day-of-delegate-voting

Per the OLP Twitter feed, we won't get official delegate counts from today's voting till later in the week. Dunno how soon the Queen's Park reporters will get an unofficial one.

[RogueBeaver]

I spoke too soon: Pupatello 438, Wynne 383, Kennedy 231. So far.

[RogueBeaver]

Now Pupatello 504, Wynne 463, Kennedy 257, Tahrar 244.

[RogueBeaver]

Uhh, wow. Just wow.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1315045--harinder-takhar-as-deputy-premier-is-a-scary-thought-cohn

[RogueBeaver]

Alain Paquet, aka the guy who LBB beat, is supporting Couillard despite having been Bachand's junior minister. LOL. Something about presumptive Liberal nominees poaching people in close proximity to their chief rivals.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201301/15/01-4611680-alain-paquet-se-rallie-a-lequipe-couillard.php

Hoskins: Now wasn't my time, might release delegates or throw them to Wynne.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1316004--ontario-liberal-leadership-candidate-eric-hoskins-maybe-this-just-isn-t-my-time

[RogueBeaver]

Horwath wants a public inquiry into the gas plants appointed within 30 days. I doubt she makes that a confidence-breaker or that Wynne agrees.

[RogueBeaver]

We're in complete agreement.

[RogueBeaver]

PLQ race is getting rather sharp-edged. Despite being a professional's party among professional's parties, 1983 was even fiercer and 1970 had the convention outright rigged.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201301/29/01-4616292-couillard-deplore-la-campagne-de-denigrement-de-bachand.php?

[RogueBeaver]

The ad wars have begun in BC.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/01/30/british-columbia-election/

[RogueBeaver]

EKOS has a new BC poll with the Dippers leading 39-27. Also, Abacus has an Ontario poll: 33-31-30 PC. That Place projects 41-33-33 as Hudak continues to have an image/urban problem.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2013/02/pcs-narrowly-ahead-in-three-way-ontario.html?spref=tw

[RogueBeaver]

EKOS-ON: 33 OLP, 29 PC, 26 NDP.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2013/02/15/wynnes-win-breaths-new-life-into-ontario-grits-poll/

[RogueBeaver]

'Tis EKOS. But yeah, they should be doing better- again we come back to the urban problem.

[RogueBeaver]

Kinsella: expect Wynne's government to fall on its budget sword in March.

http://warrenkinsella.com/2013/02/overheard-family-day-musings/

[RogueBeaver]

Doesn't seem implausible to me: NDP can't vote for Grit budgets forever. However I'd think fall or perhaps early next year more likely.