Bachmann wins Iowa straw poll

[RogueBeaver]

What are the chances that TPaw will be the Tommy Thompson of 2011 ?

Doing worse than expected in the straw poll and then dropping out afterwards ?

Chris Cillizza will be heartbroken.

Ditto for George Will.

On the OP: Bachmann.

[RogueBeaver]

1) Paul isn't placing second.

2) Gingrich and Santorum aren't cracking 5%.

3) Giuliani, Perry and Palin aren't on the ballot.

[RogueBeaver]

1) I don't think Paul is winning anything (apart from the CPAC fluke) other than Internet polls.

2) So did Chris Dodd and Silky Pony (aka Edwards) in 2008.

3) Didn't know that.

[RogueBeaver]

I'll take a stab at the top 3:

T1) Bachmann: ~29%
T2)Paul: ~28%
T3)Perry Write In: ~12%
T3)Pawlenty: ~12%

I highly doubt Paul's doing that well, but another part of me hopes he outpolls some of the more mainstream white-noisers in order to trigger a couple of dropouts.

[RogueBeaver]

This debate starts exactly at what time (eastern time) ?

9 PM.

[RogueBeaver]

Bachmann or Paul, and Paul winning discredits the straw poll even more than it already is.

[RogueBeaver]

Iowans take it seriously. But as a predictor of the caucuses and the nomination, not so much. The only candidate to grab the troika was GWB.