Indeed, the wartime presidency boost that Bush got would have been multiplied tenfold had Osama actually been caught.
McCain's supposed strong areas, foreign policy and military affairs, wouldn't help him much against a successful wartime president.
Yeah, I would even say that my estimate is conservative. Bush won a lot of states Clinton successfully appealed to in 1992 and 1996 (Montana, Georgia, Virginia, Kentucky, etc.) quite easily in 2004. Gore may have carried some of those if he was percieved as a great national leader.
