Gore v. McCain '04

[Del Tachi]

Gore wins the 2000 election by pulling off slim victories in Ohio and his home state of Tennessee.  Florida goes to Bush, and since the election does not hinge on the Floridian results, the Florida election debacle never occurs.  The Senate is still 50-50 and the House remains Republican.  Gore and Liebermann are sworn in on January 20, 2001.

Gore pursues a liberal domestic policy, pushing for both education and health reform.  He achieves education reform in the summer of 2001 (some water-downed version of NCLB).  While he is using almost all of his political capital to get health care reform through before the 2002 midterms, the 9/11 attacks occur just as they did in RL.

Gore takes a weaker stance on terrorism than Bush, but nontheless orders the invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001.  Health care reform has currently been but on the back-burner and the Gore administration has unvealed the "Safe America Act of 2001".  The bill takes a more defensive posistion when it comes to fighter terrorism, focusing on emergency response and risk   minimization.  Meanwhile, Arizona Senate John McCain proposes his own PATRIOT ACT which give more authority to the CIA and FBI to combat terrorism as well as establishes the Department of Homeland Security. 

Debate continues on the proposed bills for several months, finally over a White House luncheon between John McCain, Dennis Hastert, Tom Daschle, and Al Gore a compromise bill is reached.  It is passed by both the House and Senate and signed by President Gore in March 2002.  In this bill the Office of Emergency Management is enlarged and FEMA receives a large funding boost, also more authority is given to the federal government when it comes to fighting terrorism domestically and deportation regulations are relaxed.

Osama Bin Laden is captured in fall 2003, which is seen as a major victory for the Gore administration.  However, congressional Republicans are now pushing for the President to consider an invasion of the War in Iraq.  However, President Gore does not feel that enough evidence exists to support claims that Iraq has a WMD program.

It is now January 2004 and these are the Republicans have announced their intentions for the presidency:

John McCain
Olympia Snowe
Dick Cheney
Rudy Giuliani
Mike Huckabee
Fred Thompson

Who wins the nomination?  Can they beat Gore in '04?  Discuss with maps...   

[Bo]

As a side note, I think it would be much more realistic for Gore to narrowly win FL (by several thousand votes) than to win TN & OH. McCain would win the GOP nomination in 2004, but I have five questions:

-How do the 2002 midterms turn out?
-Is the economy the same way as in RL?
-Do fuel prices still begin rising in 2003-2004?
-Did Gore achieve any other foreign policy successes?
-Do all the GOP candidates directly call for an invasion of Iraq, or are they just saying that the U.S. needs to be more active in sponsoring Iraqi opposition groups?

[Del Tachi]

As a side note, I think it would be much more realistic for Gore to narrowly win FL (by several thousand votes) than to win TN & OH. McCain would win the GOP nomination in 2004, but I have five questions:

-How do the 2002 midterms turn out?
-Is the economy the same way as in RL?
-Do fuel prices still begin rising in 2003-2004?
-Did Gore achieve any other foreign policy successes?
-Do all the GOP candidates directly call for an invasion of Iraq, or are they just saying that the U.S. needs to be more active in sponsoring Iraqi opposition groups?

In the 2002 midterms, Democrats take control of the Senate 52-48 and gain about 15 seats in the House. 

The economy is the same as in RL.


Fuel prices are the same as in RL.

The Taliban has been overthrown and a democratic government has been established in Afghanistan, however, violence is still a major issue in thr region.

All of the GOP candidates, except for Olympia Snow and Rudy Giuliani, call for a U.S. lead invasion of Iraq.

[Bo]

McCain wins 285-253. The sluggish economy, rising fuel prices, and rising violence in Afghanistan hurt Gore. However, Gore's domestic achievements and his capture of bin Laden keep the race close. Due to his charisma and war hero status, McCain is able to squeak out a narrow victory in the end. (Personally, though, I doubt McCain would directly call for an invasion of Iraq.)

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

358-180

[Psychic Octopus]

While if Bin Laden had not been captured I would expect McCain to win a comfortable victory, in the absence of that a "rally around the flag" effect would have taken place, leading Gore to a comfortable victory.

347-191

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

While if Bin Laden had not been captured I would expect McCain to win a comfortable victory, in the absence of that a "rally around the flag" effect would have taken place, leading Gore to a comfortable victory.

Indeed, the wartime presidency boost that Bush got would have been multiplied tenfold had Osama actually been caught.

McCain's supposed strong areas, foreign policy and military affairs, wouldn't help him much against a successful wartime president.

[Psychic Octopus]

Indeed, the wartime presidency boost that Bush got would have been multiplied tenfold had Osama actually been caught.

McCain's supposed strong areas, foreign policy and military affairs, wouldn't help him much against a successful wartime president.

Yeah, I would even say that my estimate is conservative. Bush won a lot of states Clinton successfully appealed to in 1992 and 1996 (Montana, Georgia, Virginia, Kentucky, etc.) quite easily in 2004. Gore may have carried some of those if he was percieved as a great national leader.

[hcallega]

I don't see bin Laden getting captured.

Perhaps a more realistic scenario is that his mountain stronghold of Tora Bora is smashed into smithereens. bin Laden's body is never found, but many, including the administration, believe that he has been killed.

[Zacoftheaxes]

I'm writing a timeline a lot like this scenario on another site. McCain will probably win, but it will be close.

[Derek]

http://

McCain/Giuliani 317 (52%)
Gore/Lieberman 221 (47%)

[Bo]

http://

McCain/Giuliani 317 (52%)
Gore/Lieberman 221 (47%)

I doubt McCain would have picked Giuliani for VP due to his position on abortion.

[Sasquatch]

Gore would win in a similiar fashion to what Bush did in 2004. One state deciding it all. Gore could use the same tactics that Bush used in RL. Any time his polls number looked bad, he could raise the terror alert and scare the piss out of Americans.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Four years later, a victory for the Huckster against Vice President Lieberman: