Gingrich/Thune vs. Obama/Biden

[King]

Newt is too outspoken and off-putting to win in a Presidential campaign.  He'd do well early because he'd ignite the conservative base, but then he'd gradually lose almost all independent support.

[King]

Newt is too outspoken and off-putting to win in a Presidential campaign.  He'd do well early because he'd ignite the conservative base, but then he'd gradually lose almost all independent support.

consider unemployment and the war on terror too though

What about it?

[King]

it would hurt Obama if he's the one in office just like Jimmy Carter

Only if a quality candidate can capitalize on it, like Reagan.  Newt is no Reagan.  Ideologically, they are similar and Newt is experienced and informed, but Reagan was warm and reassuring.  Newt's a downer (i.e. the Bob Dole problem).

Palin can be warm and reassuring, but is an unexperienced gaffe waiting to happen (i.e. the Dan Quayle problem).

If the Republicans are serious about returning the party of Reagan and finding the next Reagan, they need to remember who Reagan really was.

[King]

I'm not sure. I think Bush or Dole could've beaten Carter then too. What was his approval rating around election night? Wasn't it around 29%? Either way, Newt does have what it takes as we saw in the 90's and he's better than Bob Dole was after the 1994 victory.

29% approval and he got 41% of the vote.

Carter was leading in some polls in just a couple of weeks prior to the election.  It didn't break for Reagan until late, mainly because of his rock solid campaign.  I'm not saying Bush or Dole couldn't have done it, but neither was as a good of a candidate as Reagan nor were they as bold in their proposals of change.

Newt's Contract with America was a great campaign, but what does that really mean? Hillary Clinton didn't benefit from the 90s.  Plus, Newt's tenure as speaker was mediocre and that might be more memorable than CwA's campaign prowness.  And even if you make the argument that campaigning skill is more important than the result, can Contract with America really have a major advantage over Hope and Change?

If the climate is anti-Obama, Newt could win.  But the GOP still could and should do a lot better than Newt--or Palin.

[King]

Also, keep in mind that 29% approval does not mean 29% in the PV. There would have been democrats who thought Carter did a poor job but weren't willing to vote for the other party in a Presidential Election. I am interested to find out Carter's approval rating though in the time of the election. This is a good discussion though!

Those are called the aforementioned Anderson supporters.

My main point is that if the political climate is easy enough for a guy like Gingrich to win, why settle on him?  Gingrich winning means virtually every non-Paulite has a chance, including guys who are not even in office like Santorum or Sununu.