Reaction if a Whitmer 2028 candidacy ends up flopping

[Del Tachi]

Expected.  Winning a Democratic primary is about putting different ideological/ethnic coalitions together, and the primary calendar/delegate allocation rules make winning Black Southerners vastly overpowered.  Whitmer is a candidate for Chicago wine moms, but when did they ever decide a Democrat primary?

Raphael Warnock or Wes Moore, 2028!   

[Del Tachi]

She would flop badly honestly, Whitmer would fail miserably with black voters which make up the structure of the Dem primary. Dread from it, run from it, a Wes Moore 2028 ticket arrives all the same (if he wants it).

Whitmer has the electability card though because she won by big margins in a state that was only narrowly democratic for president in 2016 and 2020. That seems to appeal to AA's

"Electability" is a buzz word establishment Democrats throw around when they can't think of any real reason to justify supporting their preferred goons.  It isn't a real thing.

[Del Tachi]

Expected.  Winning a Democratic primary is about putting different ideological/ethnic coalitions together, and the primary calendar/delegate allocation rules make winning Black Southerners vastly overpowered.  Whitmer is a candidate for Chicago wine moms, but when did they ever decide a Democrat primary?

Raphael Warnock or Wes Moore, 2028!   

Black southerns support the "establishment". If Harris doesn't run in 2024, I could see black voters 40+ supporting Whitmer. But that depends on Warnock not running

What makes Whitmer part of the "establishment"?  She's the progressive governor of a Midwestern state; if anything, she is more Sanders/Warren than Biden/Harris.

Black Southerners are mostly low-information voters who strongly weigh visible idpol factors.  Biden didn't win South Carolina because he's "the establishment", he won because of nearly 100% name recognition and the warm, fuzzy vibes that came with being Obama's VP.  Polls showed that, in a sans-Biden race, most Black voters would have supported Sanders.