Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Del Tachi]

My god

The Dobbs Effect is real

The blue wave is BACK

https://twitter.com/stevenportnoy/status/1590107477923622912?s=46&t=zW454TLs...

What Democrat in their right mind is going to say “economy/inflation” though?  I think people are starting at their vote and then working backwards to an issue/messaging that justifies it, as always.

[Del Tachi]

It would seem to me that Kemp/Warnock voters (i.e., Buckhead Bettys) would be more apt to vote early.  I doubt the margin separating Kemp/Walker holds up as more ED comes in.  

[Del Tachi]

Miami-Dade is ground zero for what happens when disinformation campaigns are allowed to materialize among racial minorities without any pushback, the alt-right media and the proud boys effectively taking control of the Miami-Dade GOP is literally a massive red flag for anyone who values democracy and civil politics.

That’s right, because the only way racial minorities can support the GOP is DISINFORMATION. They belong to US!

[Del Tachi]

If the Republicans do win the Senate, I'm increasingly thinking it won't be by more than 51-49.

I'm increasingly confident that the difference between 51-49 R and 50-50 is going to be Nevada and/or the probable Georgia runoff. I really can't see any other outcome unless the Philly Main Line randomly turned into quack TV doctor country.

The other piece of the equation is turnout in Philly.  How’s that looking?

[Del Tachi]

Things I’m confident saying as of now:  GA-SEN looks like a runoff; PA-SEN will come down to Philadelphia turnout.  Even if Oz is running behind Trump, he can make it up if Philly is not as much of the statewide % as 2020.

[Del Tachi]

For gaining super majority in state legislatures, does a party need to win 60% of the seats or 67% of the seats ? or does it differ from state to state ?

It depends on the state.  Although the concept of a "supermajority" in state legislatures mostly refers to one party holding a veto-proof majority, since state legislatures mostly don't have filibuster rules., 

[Del Tachi]

Has anyone noted that Democrats will now control every House seat that borders the Pacific Coast?  The pickups in AK-AL and WA-03 ensure it, I think

[Del Tachi]

Was D+8.6 the final result in 2018 before or after accounting for uncontested races?

before