AL-SEN: Shelby retiring

[Del Tachi]

As much as I disagree with him on politics this yet another example of the "Brain Drain" of the Republican party.

"Brain drain" isn't quite to the point. More like there's a system/anti-system axis in the GOP along with the conservative-moderate one, and Shelby is in the Conservative System quadrant and his replacement is going to be in the Conservative Antisystem quadrant, a firebrand like Mo Brooks.

Shelby's also the classic "workhorse not showhorse" who quietly grinds away in the powerful Appropriations Committee, while he'll be replaced by a hack who spends hours a week on cable news saying inflammatory things, if his replacement is Mo Brooks like we think it will be.

Their voting records will be identical, probably. But the effect on the Senate GOP caucus of having another loudmouth firebrand is more significant than any actual ideological difference.

Good post, but I would also add that this difference in Southern Republicans is also largely generational.  Shelby was a contemporary of people like Thad Cochran and Lamar Alexander - Southern Republicans of the 1970s and 1980s who ran/governed as agents of conservative reform against established, dyanstic Dixiecrat patriarchies.  Shelby, even though first elected to the Senate as a Democrat himself*, is the last national GOP politician of this sort.  There's an added, literary wrinkle here too:  Shelby will (most likely) be the last "pre-Boomer" to represent a former Confederate State in the Senate.

*After Shelby retires, I believe the only Southern Democrat-to-Republican "party switchers" left in the Senate will be Cindy Hyde-Smith and John Kennedy, who made the jumps in 2010 and 2007, respectively. 

 
     

[Del Tachi]

As much as I disagree with him on politics this yet another example of the "Brain Drain" of the Republican party.

"Brain drain" isn't quite to the point. More like there's a system/anti-system axis in the GOP along with the conservative-moderate one, and Shelby is in the Conservative System quadrant and his replacement is going to be in the Conservative Antisystem quadrant, a firebrand like Mo Brooks.

Shelby's also the classic "workhorse not showhorse" who quietly grinds away in the powerful Appropriations Committee, while he'll be replaced by a hack who spends hours a week on cable news saying inflammatory things, if his replacement is Mo Brooks like we think it will be.

Their voting records will be identical, probably. But the effect on the Senate GOP caucus of having another loudmouth firebrand is more significant than any actual ideological difference.

Good post, but I would also add that this difference in Southern Republicans is also largely generational.  Shelby was a contemporary of people like Thad Cochran and Lamar Alexander - Southern Republicans of the 1970s and 1980s who ran/governed as agents of conservative reform against established, dyanstic Dixiecrat patriarchies.  Shelby, even though first elected to the Senate as a Democrat himself*, is the last national GOP politician of this sort.  There's an added, literary wrinkle here too:  Shelby will (most likely) be the last "pre-Boomer" to represent a former Confederate State in the Senate.

*After Shelby retires, I believe the only Southern Democrat-to-Republican "party switchers" left in the Senate will be Cindy Hyde-Smith and John Kennedy, who made the jumps in 2010 and 2007, respectively.       

It appears possible that Kennedy retires as well. He was reportedly considering a run for Governor in 2019 and as JBE is term-limited anyways, he might just go for it.

Or JBE himself could run for Senate in 2022 and win (over Kennedy or another Republican), I suppose

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/katiebrittforal/status/1402222623950528512?s=21

Endorsed

[Del Tachi]

Brooks as the prohibitive frontrunner was always motivated wishcasting by D.C. types in support of their preferred narrative that GOP primary voters are literally insane, lol.  Britt will win. 

[Del Tachi]

Brooks as the prohibitive frontrunner was always motivated wishcasting by D.C. types in support of their preferred narrative that GOP primary voters are literally insane, lol.  Britt will win. 

After what happened to Strange and Sessions, especially Sessions, it's hard not to blame 'em.

Strange was the Trump-endorsed candidate, so I don't know why Trump's pseudo-endorsement of Brooks is supposed to mean he can't lose here.

[Del Tachi]

Katie Britt gang rise up

[Del Tachi]

Alabama Republicans have made it clear before they don't really care about Trump's endorsement (recent polling has even reiterated the fact); the former president is transparently chasing winners this election season only in service to his upcoming 2024 bid.

Brooks as a prohibitive favorite solely on the basis of Trump's endorsement never made any sense but that's the narrative red avatars and online politicos needed to paint the AL-GOP as brainwashed and crazy as possible, lol

[Del Tachi]

Why does Brooks seem to have such trouble breaking out statewide? He got third in 2017 to garbage-tier candidates Luther Strange and Roy Moore and he's getting trounced this year by two first-time candidates. He's plenty right-wing enough for the GOP base, so what gives?

As another R-AL poster said, Huntsville has long been the red-headed stepchild of Alabama politics.  It's socially and economically disconnected from Alabama's historic political "establishment" centered on Montgomery/the Black Belt.  Newer, transplant-driven metroes tend to suffer the same fate in other Southern states as well (i.e., Charlotte, Greenville-Spartanburg, MS Gulf Coast, even South Florida to a certain extent, etc.) until critical mass is reached (i.e., Atlanta) 

[Del Tachi]

Why did Brooks win Shelby County of all places? It's suburban and high income compared to the rest of Alabama and has a lot of R voters that went for Doug Jones. Did a lot of anti-Trump Republicans there vote for Brooks because Britt had the Trump endorsement in the end?

Suburban, high-income areas are typically very conservative.