How will America be in 2050

[Del Tachi]

I think over the next 30 to 50 years we'll see the parties becoming a little more like this...

Democrats--The Democratic Party will continue to be the “liberal” party of the American political scene.  They will move slowly to the left on economic issues--advocating higher and higher taxation on America’s corporations and the wealthy, more centralized oversight of the health care industry, and a protectionist trade policy.  On social issues I see the Democrats remaining relatively the same, with perhaps a stronger emphasis on homosexual and abortion rights in their national campaigns.  I expect them to move to the left and become more vocal on gun control, an issue many Democrats aren’t comfortable talking about.  The Democrats will hold together a relatively strong coalition of Hispanics, African-Americans, poor, undereducated, non-religious Whites, and young urban professionals.  There regions of strength will be the Northeast (even though they won’t have such a tight hold as they have on it today), the California, the Southwest (with the exception of TX and AZ, who will only “lean Dem”).  They will be highly competitive in the Mid-Atlantic (VA, NC, GA) and Florida.   

Republicans--On the other hand, the Republican Party will remain relatively constant on economic issues--the Tea Party will constitute less and less of their base over the next few years. By 2018, the Tea Party or anything like it WILL NOT EXIST.  They will still be economic conservatives but not fiscal conservatives, if you catch my drift.  They will be more receptive to the “Nanny State” and gladly accept pork-barrel funding for pet projects.  They will be unafraid, outspoken, vehement supporters of corporate interests.  A neoconservative foreign policy will still be the predominant ideology among Republicans concerned with international affairs.  In social issues, expect them to become more “laissez-faire” but not libertarian.  Most Republicans will favor gay marriage, abortion, and other liberal social causes at a personal level--but will tend to oppose federal intervention in those matters, preferring to leave those issues up to state governments.  They will hold together a very, very loose coalition of middle-class and upper-middle-class Whites, rural voters, the “Capitalist Class”, and young suburban professionals.  They will make inroads into the black vote and will win between 45% and 55% of the Asian vote in national elections.  There areas of strength will be the Industrial Midwest (plus maybe PA and NJ), the Great Plains, Mountain West, and the Pacific Northwest.  The South will still be SOLID, minus GA, NC, and VA.       

I think that a socially conservative, major third-party will emerge sometime in the next 20 years.  Comprised of Bible-thumping Christians, they will offer mainly regional candidates who appeal in the Deep South and Deep South only (MS, AL, LA, AR).  In most elections they will win about 5% of the national popular vote.  In some years this party will enjoy a stronger-than-usual showing, maybe even carrying a few Southern states or at least denying any of the other two major parties a clear electoral majority.