North Carolina

[Del Tachi]

Obama's 2008 squeaker was powered by rural Democratic turnout in the Sandhills and parts of Western NC.  Robeson County (pop. ~130k) had a huge swing from 2008-20, going from 57-43 Obama to 58-40 Trump.   You seem some similar GOP gains in places like Madison County (Western NC), while the suburbs are very stable (Union was 63-36 McCain, 62-37 Biden; Johnson was 61-38 McCain, 62-37 Trump.)

The only significant Democratic gains (in a numerical sense) are in the urban counties of Mecklenberg and Wake.  Biden got close to 2/3 in Mecklenberg and 62% in Wake, which are both marginal improvements over Obama's 2008 performance (62% and 57%, respectively.)  Bush actually won both of these counties in 2004, even with favorite son John Edwards on the ballot (evidence that the "college educated" trend among Democrats started with Kerry/Obama, not Trump.)

The problem for D's going forward is that Charlotte and RDU are relatively small in both an abosolute and relative sense (especially compared to Atlanta's influence on GA, for example.)  Moreover, while the industry mix in RDU (science/tech, engineering, higher ed) is good for attracting diverse, college-educated transplants to the metro, Charlotte (the bigger of the two) is more of a mixed-bag due to the heavy influence of the finance sector there.  Georgia also has the benefit of a more urbane Black population that is wealthier and easier to turnout/organize.     

Basically, as long as current partisan trends continue, North Carolina will continue to be a tough nut for Democrats to crack.  It's cities are smaller and less dynamic than Atlanta, so while they are growing these gains are being matched by further Democratic collapse in the rural areas and decreased turnout/margins among Black voters.

[Del Tachi]

Obama's 2008 squeaker was powered by rural Democratic turnout in the Sandhills and parts of Western NC.  Robeson County (pop. ~130k) had a huge swing from 2008-20, going from 57-43 Obama to 58-40 Trump.   You seem some similar GOP gains in places like Madison County (Western NC), while the suburbs are very stable (Union was 63-36 McCain, 62-37 Biden; Johnson was 61-38 McCain, 62-37 Trump.)

The only significant Democratic gains (in a numerical sense) are in the urban counties of Mecklenberg and Wake.  Biden got close to 2/3 in Mecklenberg and 62% in Wake, which are both marginal improvements over Obama's 2008 performance (62% and 57%, respectively.)  Bush actually won both of these counties in 2004, even with favorite son John Edwards on the ballot (evidence that the "college educated" trend among Democrats started with Kerry/Obama, not Trump.)

The problem for D's going forward is that Charlotte and RDU are relatively small in both an abosolute and relative sense (especially compared to Atlanta's influence on GA, for example.)  Moreover, while the industry mix in RDU (science/tech, engineering, higher ed) is good for attracting diverse, college-educated transplants to the metro, Charlotte (the bigger of the two) is more of a mixed-bag due to the heavy influence of the finance sector there.  Georgia also has the benefit of a more urbane Black population that is wealthier and easier to turnout/organize.     

Basically, as long as current partisan trends continue, North Carolina will continue to be a tough nut for Democrats to crack.  It's cities are smaller and less dynamic than Atlanta, so while they are growing these gains are being matched by further Democratic collapse in the rural areas and decreased turnout/margins among Black voters.

So generally the problem they have in Texas and Florida to some extent and what they are coming up against in the Rust Belt.  People are just more spread out than they are in other states. The cities aren't that big and a lot of the rural areas are just exurban sprawl.

Yes, this really is the weak spot of the Dems' coalition going forward.  The type of metroes where they're seeing the biggest swings/trends (ATL, Chicago, DFW, D.C./NoVa, SF Bay, NYC, etc.) are either very concentrated in a few states (most of which are already Likely/Safe D) or in states where they can easily be swamped by the exurban/rural vote (i.e., Texas, Florida and North Carolina.)  Really, the only bright spots for Dems in 2020 were in  states dominated (as in, >50% of state population) by a single metro (GA and AZ). 

North Carolina is only 66% urban, which means it's more rural than Florida, Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania or even states like Louisiana or Tennessee.