Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Del Tachi]

An interesting tidbit re: Trump's recent approval surge is that he's been doing better in polls including all adults than those screening for likely voters.  I'll interpret this to mean that his approval surge is being powered by less-engaged, low-information voters who are only following the news tangentially.   

[Del Tachi]

Trump's numbers will go up/come home on culture war issues. This is why Democrats need to focus on turnout.

I'm not so sure that the data has backed up that notion thus far. Unlike in 2016 culture war issues don't seem to be affecting peoples' opinion of Biden and instead seem to be reflecting poorly on Trump who is the President, after all, during all this upheaval.

 You guys can keep fooling yourselves but if Democrats don't have record turnout, Trump will win.

The horse race polls ask if you're going to vote and take that into account right? They're not just straight surveys asking how you would vote if you hypothetically decide to.

Sure if hardly any Dems show up to vote and lots of Republicans do, Trump will win. But right now the polling is showing sufficient democrats plan to vote to effect a landslide.

Uhm...yes, they do but they're based on the same "black box" likely voter models that we're so off in states like FL, OH and MI in 2016/18

[Del Tachi]

Don't look now, but the 538 average now has Trump approval higher than it was exactly one year ago (43.3% vs 41.3%)

[Del Tachi]

Trump 48% Approval, Fox News

The race is tightening. If Trump can hold onto recent high approvals (upper 40s), he will win the EC. Game on.

You're citing one outlier as "recent high approvals." That outlier brought his average up to a low 43% for Trump on 538. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=irpromo

That said, 43% is certainly a "higher approval" compared to the 40% he had in the depths of COVID + George Floyd protests.

In fact, 43.1% approval (the 538 avg today) is the highest at any point in Trump's presidency (Trump also hit 43.1% on 538 on Sept. 24, 2019)

Record first-term approval less than two months from election day should be the cover story.  Yet, headlining the 538 page today is some speculative click-bait about what would happen if Trump refuses to leave office (how many times have we all read this article before?) 

[Del Tachi]

Trump 48% Approval, Fox News

The race is tightening. If Trump can hold onto recent high approvals (upper 40s), he will win the EC. Game on.

You're citing one outlier as "recent high approvals." That outlier brought his average up to a low 43% for Trump on 538. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=irpromo

That said, 43% is certainly a "higher approval" compared to the 40% he had in the depths of COVID + George Floyd protests.

In fact, 43.1% approval (the 538 avg today) is the highest at any point in Trump's presidency (Trump also hit 43.1% on 538 on Sept. 24, 2019)

Record first-term approval less than two months from election day should be the cover story.  Yet, headlining the 538 page today is some speculative click-bait about what would happen if Trump refuses to leave office (how many times have we all read this article before?)  

Hmm? 538 showed he was over 45% in March when some people gave him credit for fighting COVID.

I was thinking mainly in the context of pre-2020 polls, since this year has been so whacky.

Still, it's obvious that (not just for the past few months, but really for the entirety of Trump's presidency) his approvals have been somewhere between flat or a gradual upward trend.

His approvals now are higher than they were at any point in 2017-19, maybe because COVID/BLM doesn't give any room to Mueller/Russia/Ukraine type scandals?