Prediction: MS Gov. Primary Tues.

[Del Tachi]

I voted this morning.

I think Reeves will avoid a runoff but it’ll be close.  Something like 53-38-9.  Reeves will run strong in South MS, Rankin Co and Tupelo/NE.  Waller will do better in Hinds/Madison, the Delta and College Counties.  AG primary seems very unpredictable too.  I’ll predict wins for McRae, Watson as well (sadly). 

Hood could fall into a runoff but his name recognition + high Democratic balloting by North MS whites should get him >55%.

[Del Tachi]

Bill Waller dropped out

I discovered that there was a Democratic Mississippi governor in the 70's also named Bill Waller. What a coincidence!

It’s Bill Waller, Jr.’s (the candidate) dad. 

[Del Tachi]

I discovered that there was a Democratic Mississippi governor in the 70's also named Bill Waller. What a coincidence!

It’s Bill Waller, Jr.’s (the candidate) dad. 

Okay. That makes sense. LOL
But they were members of opposite parties. Or would be Waller Sr. be a Republican nowadays?

Almost all MS governors from the post-Civil Rights era “would be Republicans today” except Finch, Mabus and Musgrove.

And yes they’ll be a runoff is Reeves finishes under 50 percent. 

[Del Tachi]

I voted this morning.

I think Reeves will avoid a runoff but it’ll be close.  Something like 53-38-9.  Reeves will run strong in South MS, Rankin Co and Tupelo/NE.  Waller will do better in Hinds/Madison, the Delta and College Counties.  AG primary seems very unpredictable too.  I’ll predict wins for McRae, Watson as well (sadly). 

Hood could fall into a runoff but his name recognition + high Democratic balloting by North MS whites should get him >55%.

Why did you expect Waller to do well in Hinds/Madison but not Rankin?

Reeves is from Rankin, and it is generally considered the most “conservative” of the Metro Jackson counties. 

Waller winning it is the story of the night (thus far). 

[Del Tachi]

Tate Reeves is a sweaty ginger and gives off Fat Pat vibes.

Jim Hood to pull a Joe Manchin?

I mean, I’m one of like three people on this forum who thinks he’s more likely to win than Beshear. It obviously won’t be easy, but I think people are underrating his chances.

A Reeves-Waller runoff probably means a lot of Waller voters get their feelings hurt and either vote for Hood or stay home.

[Del Tachi]

Reeves creeping up (now up to 48.7 percent) now that pretty much all of South MS is in, other considerable counties still not fully-reported are Lee, Lauderdale and Oktibbeha.  I expect OK to flip to Waller.

[Del Tachi]

Runoff predictions (for now):

Reeves:  57%
Waller:  43%

A very underwhelming performance for Reeves, Waller will win more counties in the runoff than he did in the first round.

Fitch: 65%
Taggart:  35%

Fitch is going to bloody Andy in the AG runoff because she can attack him on his lukewarmness toward Trump. 

[Del Tachi]

Just messing around with some numbers in my head...

Waller's base is more motivated, so he get's 70% of his August 6 vote in the runoff.

Reeves' base is more marginal and he relied more on name recognition on August 6, so let's say he gets 55% of his August 6 turnoff.

40% of Foster's August 6 voters turn-out again for the runoff, and let's be generous and assume they break 60-40 for Waller.

Results:

Tate Reeves:  111,268 votes (51.9%)
Bill Waller: 103,240 votes (48.1%)

This is probably Waller's best case scenario.

[Del Tachi]

Looks like Andy Taggart will have a very respectable showing, but Reeves appears to be on-track for an 8-10 point win.

[Del Tachi]

The AG race is close though

>   Lynn Fitch   157,053   52%
    Andy Taggart   146,405   48%

This is actually surprising.  Looking at the county results seems to suggest there were a good number of Reeves/Taggart voters and Waller/Fitch voters in Metro Jackson and the Northeast, respectively.  I wonder what’s driving this dynamic.

[Del Tachi]

Waller did win all the "educated" county in the State, it's just that they don't have that many votes.

The MS Gulf Coast is relatively educated and it delivered

The AG race is close though

> Lynn Fitch 157,053 52%
 Andy Taggart 146,405 48%

This is actually surprising.  Looking at the county results seems to suggest there were a good number of Reeves/Taggart voters and Waller/Fitch voters in Metro Jackson and the Northeast, respectively.  I wonder what’s driving this dynamic.

I was definitely surprised by this too.

I'll just chalk it up to the AG's race being less defined by policy and more personality-driven.  Lynn Fitch would be more well known in the northern regions of the state, whereas Andy Taggert has been on TV in Metro Jackson for a long time.

[Del Tachi]

Waller did win all the "educated" county in the State, it's just that they don't have that many votes.

The MS Gulf Coast is relatively educated and it delivered

The AG race is close though

> Lynn Fitch 157,053 52%
 Andy Taggart 146,405 48%

This is actually surprising.  Looking at the county results seems to suggest there were a good number of Reeves/Taggart voters and Waller/Fitch voters in Metro Jackson and the Northeast, respectively.  I wonder what’s driving this dynamic.

I was definitely surprised by this too.

I'll just chalk it up to the AG's race being less defined by policy and more personality-driven.  Lynn Fitch would be more well known in the northern regions of the state, whereas Andy Taggert has been on TV in Metro Jackson for a long time.

This is a good point, especially about Taggart.

One thing that really stood out to me between the two runoffs was the difference between Reeves and Fitch in Marshall County, which is Fitch's home county as she's from Holly Springs. Reeves garnered 81% while Fitch just managed to get 54%. It's just quite strange to me.

I think TV is the culprit here.  Andy Taggert and Jere Nash regularly appear on WLBT for political commentary.  The counties Taggert won around Jackson almost perfectly correspond to WLBT's market area.

Also, while Fitch is nominally from Marshall County she's based her career and entire adult life in Metro Jackson.

[Del Tachi]

Waller did win all the "educated" county in the State, it's just that they don't have that many votes.

The MS Gulf Coast is relatively educated and it delivered

I thought the Gulf Coast would be educated too, but it really isn't, at least according to the Census

Top counties with Bachelor Degree or higher

Madison 46.5
Oktibbeha 42.6
Lafayette 41.9
Lamar 35.9
Rankin 29.2
Hinds 28.6
Forrest 26.7

The GC ranged from 20.7 to 22.2

Why did Reeves do so well on the Coast?  Was he in tight with the Casinos?
 

Reeves was quite vocally supportive of the idea that BP disaster relief funds should have only been spent in the coastal counties, while a lot of other statewide officials wanted to use the windfall to support projects in other regions of the state.  Tate Reeves got a bill through the MS Legislature that earmarked 75% of the $750 million settlement for the six southernmost counties.

This of course endeared him to a lot of Gulf Coast businesses and residents, and it was probably a smart political calculation on his part considering how vote-heavy the Gulf Coast is in Republican nominating contests.

[Del Tachi]

Some interesting notes on MS Senate District 5, where incumbent Demosaur J.P. Wilemon is retiring after 20 years representing this 78-20 Trump district.  All but confirmed bachelor and Oxford-based attorney Daniel Sparks won the GOP primary with 5,724 (53.1%) votes on August 6, while Democrat Steve Eaton ran unopposed.  Sparks' primary opponent was County Commissioner Patrick Eaton, so there's possibly going to be some name-confusion at-play in November along with traditional Democratic strength and rumors about Sparks' personal life.  Seeing this seat stay Dem in 2019 would be quite the sight.   

For illumination, this is the district where a private event hall recently refused to host an interracial marriage due to its "Christian beliefs". 


Also, since the old thread is lost several pages back and this thread seems to have gotten more activity as of late, can we rename and make this the MS Gov Megathread?

[Del Tachi]

In what will undoubtedly be a marquee issue of the fall campaign, the Attorney General's office released its 43-page report on the Lakeland frontage road scandal.  For those unaware, the scandal revolves around allegations that Reeves directed his staff to interfere in an MDOT state highway project to promote the construction of a $2 million frontage road between Reeve's gated neighborhood and a shopping center in suburban Jackson.

The report hinges on testimony by MDOT executive director Melinda McGrath and an unnamed "confidential informant" (who I hypothesize is MDOT Commissioner Dick Hall) that indicated Tate Reeves' used his position to exert pressure on MDOT to expedite the Lakeland project.  There's also a stream of text messages, emails, and meetings between the Lieutenant Governor's staff and MDOT staff concerning the project.  The report indicates that the Reeves' wanted the project reprioritized, which necessarily meant other statewide safety projects would be moved further down the list. 

The report includes such great anecdotes as Tate Reeves cursing out the mayor of Flowood, Republican state senator Josh Harkins (a big Tate ally) attempting to record cell phone conversations, and confirmation that Dick Hall routinely hangs-up on the Lieutenant Governor when he calls.  All great political fodder.

As far as criminal considerations, Mississippi's lax public corruption laws mean that Reeves can probably only be dinged if there's a conflicting financial interest involved.  The report suggests that this might be the case because Reeves holds membership in a local neighborhood association that would be involved in right of way transfer if the Lakeland project had proceeded.  I think that's a pretty weak case, but Mrs. Tate Reeves did vote on her husband's behalf in favor of demanding MDOT to pay the association for any property transfer.           

Playing into the political melodrama, Reeves' supporters are calling the investigation an abuse of power by Jim Hood (who is directing the AG's office to investigate a political opponent of his).  The investigation was handled by two special assistant attorneys general and reviewed by two former MS Supreme Court justices, but the AG's office has declined to press charges or continue the investigation at this time (claiming that the LG's office unwillingness to turn over documents prevents the investigation from going forward).  In the press yesterday, Jim Hood was out saying that the media and the public "need to read the report".   

Unrelated note:  2/3 MDOT commissioners are retiring this year, and its understood that neither one of them necessarily enjoys working with Tate Reeves.