Prediction: MS Gov. Primary Tues.

[terp40hitch]

Prediction for Mississippi's Governor primary that is Tuesday.

Mine:

Republican primary=
1. Tate Reeves: 53%
2. Bill Waller: 38%
3. Robert Foster: 9%

Democratic primary=
1. Jim Hood: 61%
2. Robert Shuler Smith: 29%
3. Others: 10%

[smoltchanov]

Close to what i think too. Though i would prefer Waller on Republican side.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Hoping for Foster

[smoltchanov]

Hoping for Foster

That would be a sensation. But - too unlikely..

[pops]

GOP -
Tate Reeves 48%
Bill Waller 35%
Robert Foster 17%

DEM -
Jim Hood 53%
Robert Shuler Smith 32%
Others 15%

I'm pretty uncertain about the Dem primary, Hood could run away with it or it could go to a runoff. I think Republicans are looking at a runoff though.

[Politician]

Hoping for a runoff on the Republican side.

[Pollster]

Based on recent rhetoric it seems like Reeves is headed for a runoff. Cw is that it will be against Waller but I wouldn't be surprised if the second runoff slot is too close to call for a bit.

[Del Tachi]

I voted this morning.

I think Reeves will avoid a runoff but it’ll be close.  Something like 53-38-9.  Reeves will run strong in South MS, Rankin Co and Tupelo/NE.  Waller will do better in Hinds/Madison, the Delta and College Counties.  AG primary seems very unpredictable too.  I’ll predict wins for McRae, Watson as well (sadly). 

Hood could fall into a runoff but his name recognition + high Democratic balloting by North MS whites should get him >55%.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Chokwe Antar Lumumba for the dems and Jeb Bush for the republicans

Ok idk much about these races at all, but my gut feeling is that Hood does worse than expected and Reeves does better than expected. Both avoid a runoff.

[136or142]

Any place to hear the results?  Mississippi public radio?

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/06/us/elections/results-mississippi-primary-election.html

[136or142]

First result

Dem   Hood, Jim   306   66.67 %   
Dem   Brown, Michael   63   13.73 %   
Dem   Williams, Velesha P   29   6.32 %   
Dem   Smith, Robert Shuler   24   5.23 %   
Dem   Wilson, Albert   11   2.40 %   
Dem   Compton, William Bond   10   2.18 %   
Dem   Ray, Robert J   9   1.96 %   
Dem   Wash, Gregory   7   1.53 %   

iIncumbentRunoffWinner
Governor - GOP Primary
1 of 1768 Precincts Reporting - 0%Updated: 20:32 ET
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %   
GOP   Foster, Robert   5   38.46 %   
GOP   Waller, Bill   4   30.77 %   
GOP   Reeves, Tate   4   30.77 %   

[Politician]

First result

Dem   Hood, Jim   306   66.67 %   
Dem   Brown, Michael   63   13.73 %   
Dem   Williams, Velesha P   29   6.32 %   
Dem   Smith, Robert Shuler   24   5.23 %   
Dem   Wilson, Albert   11   2.40 %   
Dem   Compton, William Bond   10   2.18 %   
Dem   Ray, Robert J   9   1.96 %   
Dem   Wash, Gregory   7   1.53 %   
iIncumbentRunoffWinner
Governor - GOP Primary
1 of 1768 Precincts Reporting - 0%Updated: 20:32 ET
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %   
GOP   Foster, Robert   5   38.46 %   
GOP   Waller, Bill   4   30.77 %   
GOP   Reeves, Tate   4   30.77 %   

From a majority-black county so good for Hood.

[Oryxslayer]

The Desoto and Hinds numbers arn't that good for Reeves, but admittedly the hinds ones are a bit early...

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Bill Waller dropped out

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Go Foster go!

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Bill Waller dropped out

I discovered that there was a Democratic Mississippi governor in the 70's also named Bill Waller. What a coincidence!

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Will there be a run-off on the Republican side if Reeves doesn't receive a majority of votes?

[Del Tachi]

Bill Waller dropped out

I discovered that there was a Democratic Mississippi governor in the 70's also named Bill Waller. What a coincidence!

It’s Bill Waller, Jr.’s (the candidate) dad. 

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I discovered that there was a Democratic Mississippi governor in the 70's also named Bill Waller. What a coincidence!

It’s Bill Waller, Jr.’s (the candidate) dad. 

Okay. That makes sense. LOL
But they were members of opposite parties. Or would be Waller Sr. be a Republican nowadays?

[Del Tachi]

I discovered that there was a Democratic Mississippi governor in the 70's also named Bill Waller. What a coincidence!

It’s Bill Waller, Jr.’s (the candidate) dad. 

Okay. That makes sense. LOL
But they were members of opposite parties. Or would be Waller Sr. be a Republican nowadays?

Almost all MS governors from the post-Civil Rights era “would be Republicans today” except Finch, Mabus and Musgrove.

And yes they’ll be a runoff is Reeves finishes under 50 percent. 

[DINGO Joe]

I voted this morning.

I think Reeves will avoid a runoff but it’ll be close.  Something like 53-38-9.  Reeves will run strong in South MS, Rankin Co and Tupelo/NE.  Waller will do better in Hinds/Madison, the Delta and College Counties.  AG primary seems very unpredictable too.  I’ll predict wins for McRae, Watson as well (sadly). 

Hood could fall into a runoff but his name recognition + high Democratic balloting by North MS whites should get him >55%.

Why did you expect Waller to do well in Hinds/Madison but not Rankin?

[Del Tachi]

I voted this morning.

I think Reeves will avoid a runoff but it’ll be close.  Something like 53-38-9.  Reeves will run strong in South MS, Rankin Co and Tupelo/NE.  Waller will do better in Hinds/Madison, the Delta and College Counties.  AG primary seems very unpredictable too.  I’ll predict wins for McRae, Watson as well (sadly). 

Hood could fall into a runoff but his name recognition + high Democratic balloting by North MS whites should get him >55%.

Why did you expect Waller to do well in Hinds/Madison but not Rankin?

Reeves is from Rankin, and it is generally considered the most “conservative” of the Metro Jackson counties. 

Waller winning it is the story of the night (thus far). 

[Matty]

Headed to a runoff on gop side

[Meatball Ron]

Bill Waller dropped out

Source? Not seeing this anywhere.