Who will win the runoff in Mississippi?

[Del Tachi]

Thad Cochran will win with around 50.8% of the vote.  Turnout will drop heavily in the Pine Belt/Coast, but it will stay propped-up in the northeast (around Tupelo).  Turnout in Oktibbeha, Lafayatte and DeSoto will actually increase.  For some reason, Cochran runs well ahead of other "establishment" candidates in the northeast.  The race is split along regional cleavages, not ideological ones. 

[Del Tachi]

Seriously, June 3rd was a statistical tie.

Normally insignificant things such as the weather could end-up making a world of difference in the runoff.  And I've seen nothing to indicate that the runoff is anything besides 50/50.  Granted, McD was up in a few polls but IIRC they only included responses from June 3rd GOP primary voters.  Normally this difference would be insignificant but in razor-thin elections concerned moderates/Democrats who skipped-out on June 3rd who are now terrified of losing Columbus AFB or shipbuilding contracts could end-up throwing this to Cochran.  Moreover, this "fear mongering" tactic tends to be what Cochran is going for now (albeit I wish Cochran would shift his regional emphasis from the Coast to North MS, where he seems to have a natural advantage over other establishment Republicans in primary elections).

[Del Tachi]

Thad Cochran will win with around 50.8% of the vote.  Turnout will drop heavily in the Pine Belt/Coast, but it will stay propped-up in the northeast (around Tupelo).  Turnout in Oktibbeha, Lafayatte and DeSoto will actually increase.  For some reason, Cochran runs well ahead of other "establishment" candidates in the northeast.  The race is split along regional cleavages, not ideological ones. 

My reasoning was a bit off, but I got within 0.1% of the actual result!