ME: Independents Gaining Traction

[MAINEiac4434]

Damn near clowncar level. And while he has an ex-Baldacci and Michaud staffer already lined up with him, I don't see him making headway against Eves and Mills.

[MAINEiac4434]

Damn near clowncar level. And while he has an ex-Baldacci and Michaud staffer already lined up with him, I don't see him making headway against Eves and Mills.

Yeah all we need is for Michaud, Pingree, and Jackson to all run and then it'll be chaos

The winner would have like 17.9% of the vote.

Jackson has already said he'd sit this one out, though.

[MAINEiac4434]

Diane Russell is awful.

[MAINEiac4434]

How much of a chance does Terry Hayes have to win?

Too soon to tell. No one's heard of her, and I doubt centrist-leaning Democrats (of which she was one before she took the position of Treasurer) are willing to allow LePage Jr. (Mayhew) to win like they did in 2010 and 2014. But if she has a decent campaign, and the Dem candidate is crap (I'm looking at Diane Russell here), anything can happen.

No one knows her name now, but no one knew Cutler's in August 2009.

[MAINEiac4434]

Wrong Betsy, guys...

[MAINEiac4434]

Businessman Alan Caron is running as an independent: http://www.pressherald.com/2017/11/06/alan-caron-joins-governors-race-as-an-independent/

Swells the total number of candidates across all parties to 18. When Moody declares later this month it'll be 19.

[MAINEiac4434]

Another Independent declared a few days ago: John Jenkins, former Mayor of Lewiston and Auburn and first black person elected to the State Senate: http://www.pressherald.com/2017/11/16/former-mayor-of-both-lewiston-and-auburn-files-for-2018-governors-race/

He's been out of politics for awhile though...

[MAINEiac4434]

Shawn Moody is running as a Republican, as expected.

http://www.wcsh6.com/news/local/moody-expected-to-join-race-for-governor/493622406

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Found those last two paragraphs fascinating. Would be a HUGE blow to Mayhew and Fredette if LePage endorses him.

And here I was, thinking he'd be running as the moderate, not a LePage-ite.

[MAINEiac4434]

So, uh, getting back on topic:

LePage backing Moody would be HUGE. It’d really screw over Mayhew and Fredette, who are unpopular with the public at large but arguably the two most prominent LePage-ites in the state. A LePage endorsement might be enough to get him over the finish line in a crowded primary such as this.

Not being a politician would help him in the general, too, especially if the Democrat is Janet Mills or Mark Eves (which it will be), two people who have gotten into very public spats with LePage. Moody could run as a quasi-“Drain The Swamp” candidate fighting “Dysfunction in Augusta” (even as the people running his campaign are largely responsible for that dysfunction, not Mills or Eves) and Mills would bleed enough to Hayes that it would be an agonizingly close race even as the Democrats probably retake the State Senate (they need only one seat).

[MAINEiac4434]

So, as jfern mentioned in the USGD board, the Maine Green Independent Party now has its second state representative: Henry John Bear (I already updated the Wikipedia page ).

Bear, as a Tribal Representative, doesn’t have a vote but sits in the legislature, sponsors and co-sponsors legislation and is a member of a handful of committees.

Pingree: maybe.

Who the hell isn’t running? Might as well get Pingree’s daughter to run as well.

Ohmigod

She’d lose. Too closely associated with Portland.

[MAINEiac4434]

So I’ve done the math: Maine, despite being one of the smallest states in the union, currently has the most candidates running for Governor in 2018.

And all of them (okay, most of them) have a chance to win their primaries and the general election. I love Maine politics. I hate Maine politics.

[MAINEiac4434]

Does Hayes have a chance at making as much of an impact as Cutler in 2010?

She’s ten times the candidate and person Cutler is. If it’s Mills/Mayhew/Hayes, I’d put money on Hayes.

She’s running publicly financed, though, so she won’t have as much money as Cutler did to saturate the airwaves.

The major parties underestimate her at their own risk.

[MAINEiac4434]

Maine really is the Montana of the Northeast in many ways, lol.

Or, Montana is the Maine of the West.

This. We were a state first.

[MAINEiac4434]

John Jenkins sounds amazing. I’d like to see him and Hayes reach some agreement, though, where maybe she runs for the House and endorsed him.

Hayes is a much, much stronger general election candidate than the motivational speaker and ex-body builder.

[MAINEiac4434]

http://www.wcsh6.com/news/local/rep-chellie-pingree-says-shes-seriously-considering-running-for-governor/496673023

Well, this is interesting...

She would tank badly in the 2nd district.

Yup. And Hayes would sweep up enough of the moderate and left-leaning vote to give us Governor Mayhew or something.

[MAINEiac4434]

I think this race is lean R. Purely because of Terry Hayes and a stronger GOP field than a Democratic one.

Not sure it's stronger than the Dem field...Mayhew is the most likely candidate to emerge and she has low approval ratings, Mason is young and associated with the alt-right, Fredette is a dumbass, Thibodeau has no personality. The only one who makes it lean R would be Moody.

[MAINEiac4434]

I believe he’s the only candidate who openly supported Trump during the primaries.

[MAINEiac4434]

I love Maine politics. Only election I know of where practically everyone in the primaries + independents have realistic chances of winning.

It can be quite stressful, though. And our Senate races are boring.

[MAINEiac4434]

Completely missed this, but:
Former Bangor Mayor and current City Councillor Sean Faircloth announced a campaign for Governor a week before Christmas. Really poor timing.

Faircloth is mostly noted for his radical atheism (his photo is included in the "Atheists and Agnostic" section of the Factions of the Democratic Party Wikipedia page). He joins Betsy Sweet and Terry Hayes as the three major candidates running clean elections campaigns.

Faircloth is a progressive troll. He wrote the 2014 book Attack of the Theocrats, a veritable tome for the Reddit Atheist crowd.

Can Faircloth win? In a primary that will be this divided, absolutely. I think he'd have trouble in a general election, though.

[MAINEiac4434]

Emily's List has unsurprisingly but disappointingly endorsed Janet Mills

https://www.pressherald.com/2018/01/31/mills-campaign-for-governor-secures-endorsement-from-emilys-list/

[MAINEiac4434]

Emily's List has unsurprisingly but disappointingly endorsed Janet Mills

https://www.pressherald.com/2018/01/31/mills-campaign-for-governor-secures-endorsement-from-emilys-list/

Do you have anyone you're pulling for? I'm underwhelmed with the choices thus far.

Betsy Sweet, who has no chance. I like Hayes more than I liked Cutler. If it’s Mills for the Dems I’ll provably bite the bullet for Hayes unless she’s polling below 25.

[MAINEiac4434]

What is the deal with Adam Cote I have read up on him and he looks like the strongest Dem candidate?

He’s the most moderate, which would have the base of the party fleeing to Hayes and the Green. His background looks strong but he’s never been in politics before. I’m not comfortable with non-politicians in chief executive roles.

[MAINEiac4434]

Jim Boyle and Sean Faircloth are out. Faircloth announced his endorsement of Mark Eves; Boyle has not endorsed anyone.

It is expected more will drop out March 15th, which is the deadline for signatures to qualify for the primary ballot.

Unsurprising about both; Faircloth only entered in December, and Boyle was gaining no traction.

[MAINEiac4434]

All major candidates save Moody (and including the recently withdrawn Faircloth) weighed in on five proposed gun control measures:

https://www.pressherald.com/2018/02/25/candidates-for-governor-weigh-in-on-gun-reform/

The Democrats were Democrats and the Republicans were Republicans on the issue. Only Mills had anything interesting to say on the issue, defying liberal orthodoxy on gun control, no doubt already pivoting to the general election.

Independent Alan Caron sided with the Democrats on everything except gun free school zones (a bizarre place to break with the Dems, especially in light of Parkland), while Hayes had a brain fart and could only answer “probably” to 4 of the 5 questions. Not a good look; she appears indecisive and uninformed on the issues.

[MAINEiac4434]

That shows why I'll likely support Mills. With such a controversial issue in our state, it's smart to give nuanced explanations.

Mills is the only one who really stood out in that piece, agreed.