TX-SEN: True to Form

[MAINEiac4434]

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I get the feeling I'm gonna become a very big Beto O'Rourke fan by the end of the year.

Beto 2020

[MAINEiac4434]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/850512353049419777

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FF!

That'll win him supporters. Texans love them some Texas.

[MAINEiac4434]

O'Rourke doesn't even have to win this thing.  If he can keep Cruz's margin of victory to below 10%, he'll help pave the way for Texas Democrats in the future.

Not to mention he'll be bandied about in 2020 as a potential running mate. He could return to congress that year too as an almost-conquering hero.

[MAINEiac4434]

Now if O'Rourke gets the nomination and manages to pull an upset against Cruz, expect him to perhaps run in 2020?

He will definitely be in the conversation, but I doubt he runs just two years into a senate term. Texans might consider that a betrayal.

[MAINEiac4434]

I just wish Beto would fix his terrible campaign logo. I want a bumper sticker that I'd actually be willing to put on my car.

Yeah, all-black logos aren't appealing.

[MAINEiac4434]

Now if O'Rourke gets the nomination and manages to pull an upset against Cruz, expect him to perhaps run in 2020?

He will definitely be in the conversation, but I doubt he runs just two years into a senate term. Texans might consider that a betrayal.

I could see him as a strong candidate in 2024 though if there is an open Democratic primary then.

No offense to Beto, but hopefully there isn't.

[MAINEiac4434]

He holds super pac money high and he lies! Lyin' Ted!

Give an example of a lie.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/01/fox_news_is_getting_really_good_at_spotting_ted_cruz_s_lies.html

1. Don't cite Slate please in academic discussion.
2. The videos in the debate were wording issues, meant to sound moderate when the position really was not and/or flip flops depending on how you take it.  A flop is not a lie; it is a flop.

ELL OH ELL

[MAINEiac4434]

The Republican senator would not say whether he’ll fire the staff aide or deny the aide access to his social media accounts, though he did note that the aide did not act maliciously.

http://www.news.com.au/technology/online/social/ted-cruz-blames-aide-for-liking-porn-tweet/news-story/9bb3058d9dd1a6bd017dd63e9e076053

This "Aide did this" sounds like total BS

Because it is.

He'd fire the aide responsible if it was an aide responsible.

He did it. He can't fire an aide for something try didn't do.

[MAINEiac4434]

Congressman Joaquin Castro said on the Daily Show yesterday that he believes Beto will win. Source.

I mean what else would he say

Right?

“Hahaha, no Trevor, Beto’s screwed and this was a horrible decision for his career”

[MAINEiac4434]

If Beto pulls it off this fall, Trump is DEFINITELY in trouble come 2020.

If Cruz somehow loses then I think Trump is not DOA, but bordering close to it. If those 38 electoral votes are tossup or Lean R instead of Safe/Likely R that changes the dynamics of 2020 in the Democrats favor. Trump could win the state in 2020 but it could come at the expense of spending and campaigning more there than a NC or a FL perhaps.

Drawing conclusion from an O'Rourke victory for 2020 would be a big mistake. Just because everything aligns perfectly in a Senate race doesn't mean the state has become competitive at the presidential level. Remember a Republican won Illinois in 2010.

Republicans won an unfortunate special election in Massachusetts too.

Massachusetts is more elastic than Texas, though. Democrats haven't won statewide in Texas since Ann Richards in 1990. Since 1990, Massachusetts has only had one Democratic governor.

[MAINEiac4434]

Lol.

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1036669764846977025

Guys is it just me or is Ted Cruz not good at this politics thing

[MAINEiac4434]

Lol.

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1036669764846977025

Guys is it just me or is Ted Cruz not good at this politics thing

It's just you, he did after all take down the Lt. Governor and win a senate seat.

That being said Beto is much better at it.

Being a right-winger and winning a Republican primary in Texas is not a sign of political skill.

[MAINEiac4434]

Jalaketu West has said a number of objectionable things to me previously. At any rate, this thread should not be derailed any further then it already has been.

Whether or not Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalaketu West has said objectionable things to you previously is irrelevant to the intellectual argument advanced by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalaketu West. That argument was namely that the purpose Doctor Imperialism was trying to achieve with Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Doctor Imperialism's post was to achieve the behavior known as "humor." Now, let's be clear. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalaketu West's argument that the purpose Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Doctor Imperialism was trying to achieve with Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Doctor Imperialism's post was to achieve the behavior known as "humor" is either a valid argument or an invalid argument, but its validity or invalidity does not depend upon the fact that Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalaketu was the person who put forth the argument into a public forum for our mutual due consideration and debate. Determining the validity of Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalekatu West's argument, rather, requires making an extensive and detailed list of the points that are pro and the points that are con. You must consider both sides of the argument in weighing the quality of the claim, and then think "on the one hand x, but on the other hand y."

In addition to this argument, Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalaketu West also deigned to make a suggestion that you yourself might consider trying to engage in the behavior known as "humor" some time. Of course, it goes without saying that in order to do such a thing you would also need to formulate a list of the arguments in favor and opposed to engaging in such a behavior. Now, let's be clear once again. The suggestion advanced by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jalaketu West could be either a good suggestion or a bad suggestion, but the quality of the suggestion doesn't depend upon whether it was made by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered User Jaleketu West, or alternatively by Donald Trump or Barack Obama (neither of whom, as far as I am aware, are Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Registered Users). Whoever made the suggestion, it is either a good one or a bad one on its own actual merits, wouldn't you say?

I hope that this post has been edifying and makes it easier to understand how to proceed in analyzing arguments on an online bulletin board such as the Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Forum Congressional Elections sub-forum.

Marry me