So it's probably going to be a centre-right VVD-CDA-D66-CU government. Excellent result. D66 and CU will clash, but GL and PvdA won't join VVD-CDA-D66 if there is another viable 4 party coalition so it's probably the only option. I actually don't think a formation with those 4 parties should take very long.
What about the possibility of VVD-D66-GL-PvdA? It's difficult for me to see what motivation the CDA would have to go into coalition with Rutte. If they refuse to participate, they essentially force Rutte into purple plus and can position themselves as the main party of the right at the next election. What incentive do they have to play nice?
As good as that sounds, PvdA want to take a step back from governing after this defeat and GroenLinks is accepting the mantle of "non-Wilders opposition."
I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact
Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.
I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.
Still can't believe they lost a seat with PvdA's total collapse. Such a missed opportunity.
