UK local by-elections, 2023

[YL]

Cons have managed to lose Worfield to the Liberals. I know the area. This is a hysterically atrocious result.

A sign the Lib Dems might have an eye on the LudlowSouth Shropshire parliamentary seat again?

Disappointing result for Labour in the Norwich suburbs, though they'd never won that ward before the previous by-election last year.  Better in Newcastle-under-Lyme; both those seats looked a bit vulnerable.

[YL]

Thursday 14 September

Andrew Teale's preview

Barking & Dagenham; Mayesbrook

Lab 632 (46.8%, -22.9)
Con 444 (32.9%, +2.6)
Green 192 (14.2%, new)
Lib Dem 81 (6.0%, new)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Lab hold

Liverpool; Fazakerley East

Lab 350 (40.9%, -26.8)
Liverpool Community Independent 258 (30.2%, -2.1)
Lib Dem 148 (17.3%, new)
Ind Maguire 87 (10.2%, new)
Con 12 (1.4%, new)
(changes from 2023)

Lab hold

Lincolnshire County Council; Carholme

Lab 896 (48.0%, -9.8)
Lib Dem 680 (36.4%, +32.5)
Con 150 (8.0%, -16.5)
TUSC 74 (4.0%, +2.3)
Reform UK 66 (3.5%, new)
(changes from 2021)

Lab hold

Lancashire County Council; Chorley Rural West

Lab 1642 (52.1%, +11.1)
Con 1279 (40.6%, -7.9)
Lib Dem 231 (7.3%, +2.0)
(changes from 2021)

Lab gain from Con

Chorley; Croston, Mawdesley & Euxton South

Con 878 (47.9%, -3.6 on 2023, +1.6 on 2022)
Lab 710 (38.8%, +3.0 on 2023, +13.3 on 2022)
Lib Dem 244 (13.3%, +6.3 on 2023, -11.3 on 2022)

Con hold

Swale; Minster Cliffs

Swale Independents 395 (35.8%, +9.7)
Lab 339 (30.7%, +14.9)
Con 331 (30.0%, +7.6)
Lib Dem 39 (3.5%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Swale Independents gain from Con; ward now Swale Ind 2, Con 1

[YL]

Thank you for these as ever, but the Chorley result doesn't have the advertised 2021 changes?

Sorry, I wrote that and then remembered that Chorley elects by thirds so there were 2022 and 2023 figures available, and I've decided that it isn't worth doing comparisons with all-ups when there are other single seat elections available, mainly because of the messy questions about just how to do the calculations in the all-ups, which I don't think have a very satisfactory answer. (I try to be consistent about which method I actually use, but there are some examples, e.g. Swale this week, where it just doesn't feel right.)

Anyway, shouldn't the Liverpool Conservatives be congratulated on getting a 14% swing from Labour?

[YL]

Thursday 21 September

Andrew Teale's preview

South Ayrshire; Girvan & South Carrick

First preferences:
Con 1315 (47.5%, +19.5)
SNP 778 (28.1%, +3.2)
Lab 499 (18.0%, +9.2)
Lib Dem 108 (3.9%, new)
Alba 70 (2.5%, +1.4)
(changes from 2022)

Con gain from SNP; transfers to follow

Kingston upon Hull; Bricknell

Lab 919 (43.7%, -9.1 on 2022, -4.0 on 2021)
Lib Dem 647 (30.8%. +25.3 on 2022, +26.5 on 2022)
Con 418 (19.9%, -15.9 on 2022, -20.9 on 2021)
Green 98 (4.7%, -1.3 on 2022, -2.5 on 2021)
Yorkshire Party 19 (0.9%, new)

Lab hold
(Hull elects by thirds, but this ward is two member and had no election in 2023)

Milton Keynes; Newport Pagnell South

Lib Dem 1088 (43.5%, -3.6 on 2023, -7.0 on 2022, +5.4 on 2021)
Lab 684 (27.4%, +11.5 on 2023, +11.2 on 2022, +13.5 on 2021)
Con 561 (22.4%, -11.9 on 2023, -10.9 on 2022, -19.9 on 2021)
Green 80 (3.2%, didn't stand in 2022 or 2023, -2.5 on 2021)
Ind Cocksedge 53 (2.1%, new)
Women's Equality 34 (1.4%, new)

Lib Dem gain from Con; all councillors in the ward now Lib Dem

Colchester; Highwoods

Lib Dem 563 (39.4%, -7.1 on 2023, +3.1 on Dec 2022 "top vote", +18.1 on 2022, +31.0 on 2021)
Lab 447 (31.3%, -1.4 on 2023, -7.1 on Dec 2022 "top vote", -9.5 on 2022, +11.3 on 2021)
Con 418 (29.3%, +12.3 on 2023, +4.0 on Dec 2022 "top vote", -8.6 on 2022, -0.5 on 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Lab; ward now 2 Lib Dem 1 Lab

[YL]

It's also worth posting Ballot Box Scotland's preview of Girvan & South Carrick.

[YL]

Girvan & South Carrick transfers

	Count1	Alba	Count2	Lib Dem	Count3	Lab	Count4
		transfers		transfers		transfers
Con	1315	8	1323	23	1346	151	1497
SNP	778	24	802	22	824	150	974
Lab	499	8	507	44	551
LibDem	108	5	113
Alba	70
nt		25	25	24	49	250	299

[YL]

Thursday 28 September

Andrew Teale's preview

Highland; Tain & Easter Ross

(see also Ballot Box Scotland's preview)

First preferences:
Ind Ross 1022 (41.5%, new)
Lib Dem 603 (24.5%, +3.0)
SNP 464 (18.8%, -11.8)
Con 207 (8.4%, -2.2)
Lab 88 (3.6%, new)
Green 56 (2.3%, new)
Libertarian 23 (0.9%, new)

Ind Ross gain from Lib Dem

Wolverhampton; Bushbury South & Low Hill

Lab 686 (59.2%, -5.4)
Con 256 (22.1%, -0.5)
Lib Dem 139 (12.0%, -0.8)
Green 78 (6.7%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lab hold

North Yorkshire; Hutton Rudby & Osmotherley

Con 954 (48.4%, +8.9)
Lib Dem 747 (37.9%, +14.2)
Green 243 (12.3%, new)
Yorkshire Party 27 (1.4%, new)
(changes from 2022; note that the Conservative candidate this time stood as an Independent then and got 28.5%)

Con hold

South Norfolk; Mulbarton & Stoke Holy Cross

Lib Dem 667 (37.1%, -11.4)
Con 434 (24.2%, -10.8)
Ind Legg 404 (22.5%, new)
Lab 164 (9.1%, -7.4)
Green 128 (7.1%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

South Norfolk; South Wymondham

Lib Dem 286 (35.0%, -12.4)
Con 268 (32.8%, +4.9)
Lab 173 (21.2%, -3.5)
Green 89 (10.9%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem hold

[YL]

Tain & Easter Ross transfers

	C1	Libert	C2	Green	C3	Lab	C4	Con	C5	SNP	C6
		trans		trans		trans		trans		trans
Ross	1022	3	1025	8	1033	25	1058	73	1131	181	1312
LibDem	603	2	605	13	618	26	644	61	705	96	801
SNP	464	3	467	24	491	15	506	8	514
Con	207	3	210	0	210	6	216
Lab	88	2	90	6	96
Green	56	2	58
Libert	23
nt		8	8	7	15	24	39	74	113	237	350

[YL]

Wednesday 4 October

Andrew Teale's preview

Haringey, South Tottenham

Lab 1268 (68.2%, +4.6)
Con 286 (15.4%, +0.4)
Green 235 (12.6%, -3.3)
Lib Dem 71 (3.8%, -2.2)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Lab hold

Haringey, White Hart Lane

Lab 1081 (59.0%, +1.6)
Con 289 (15.8%, +3.7)
Green 247 (13.5%, new)
Lib Dem 215 (11.7%, +1.4)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Lab hold

[YL]

Thursday 5 October

Featuring a visit to Tamworth two weeks before the main event there...

Andrew Teale's preview (after the Parliamentary Special)

Lambeth; Vauxhall

Lab 595 (42.0%, -11.1)
Lib Dem 395 (27.9%), +16.8
Green 256 (18.1%, -2.1)
Con 160 (11.3%, -4.3)
Socialist Party (GP) 9 (0.6%, new)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Lab hold

Tamworth; Amington

Lab 669 (42.9%, -7.8)
Con 526 (33.7%, -15.6)
Ind Cook 242 (15.5%, new)
Reform UK 98 (6.3%, new)
UKIP 25 (1.6%, new)
(changes from 2023)

Lab hold

[YL]

Some have pointed out the two "other" right wing candidates very likely helped Labour and hurt the Tories in that byelection - but both those parties are standing the week after next, as well.

Given how the vacancy came about, Labour must be pretty content.

Not just both those parties: both those candidates.

The Independent, though, who is a former Tory councillor for the ward, isn’t standing in the Westminster by-election. So the result perhaps isn’t quite as good for Labour’s prospects in two weeks’ time as first impressions suggest, but OTOH it would be over-simplistic to just add her vote to the Tory’s and on balance I’d agree that it’s a decent result for the red team.

[YL]

Thursday 12 October

Andrew Teale's preview

Suffolk County Council; Woodbridge

Lib Dem 990 (51.2%, -12.3)
Con 642 (33.2%, -3.4)
Lab 301 (15.6%, new)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem hold

Cheltenham; Prestbury

People Against Bureaucracy 644 (37.2%, -8.6 on 2022, -12.8 on 2021)
Green 484 (27.9%, +9.6 on 2022, didn't stand in 2021)
Lib Dem 346 (20.0%, +5.4 on 2022, +0.3 on 2021)
Con 258 (14.9%, -6.5 on 2022, -15.4 on 2021)
(NB Cheltenham elects by halves and had no election in 2023)

People Against Bureaucracy hold

[YL]

As has been commented on Twitter, a bit of a swing towards bureaucracy there.

[YL]

Another sideshow today.

Thursday 19 October

Andrew Teale's preview (after the Parliamentary Specials)

Shropshire; Alveley & Claverley

Lib Dem 662 (58.8%, +36.6)
Con 408 (36.3%, -33.0)
Lab 55 (4.9%, new)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Con

Surrey County Council; Horsleys

Residents for Guildford and Villages 1095 (39.3%, -8.5)
Lib Dem 1023 (36.7%, +25.2)
Con 569 (20.4%, -17.0)
Lab 99 (3.6%, +0.3)
(changes from 2021)

RGV hold

Worcestershire County Council; Warndon Parish

Green 1139 (44.2%, +28.7)
Con 623 (24.2%, -36.9)
Lib Dem 579 (22.5%, +16.3)
Lab 237 (9.2%, -7.5)
(changes from 2021)

Green gain from Con

Worcester; Warndon Parish South

Green 733 (53.7%, -11.6 on 2023, +36.2 on 2022)
Con 340 (24.9%, +2.5 on 2023, -28.4 on 2022)
Lab 171 (12.5%, +2.6 on 2023, -11.1 on 2022)
Lib Dem 92 (6.2%, +3.9 on 2023, +0.6 on 2022)
Reform UK 29 (2.1%, new)
(Worcester elects by thirds, but this is a two member ward and had no election in 2021)

Green gain from Con

[YL]

Thursday 26 October

Andrew Teale's preview

Herefordshire; Golden Valley South

Ind Engel 548 (61.2%, new)
Con 249 (27.8%, -7.4)
Lab 34 (3.8%, new)
Ind Jones 34 (3.8%, new)
Lib Dem 30 (3.4%, -9.1)
(changes from 2023)

"Ind hold"

Coventry; Earlsdon

Lab 1388 (43.0%, -9.3 on 2023, -10.0 on 2022, -0.6 on 2021)
Con 1017 (31.5%, +2.3 on 2023, +2.5 on 2022, -4.0 on 2021)
Lib Dem 489 (15.1%, +7.8 on 2023, +7.2 on 2022, +5.3 on 2021)
Green 193 (6.0%, -1.0 on 2023, +1.3 on 2022, -0.1 on 2021)
Coventry Citizens 107 (3.3%, +0.4 on 2023, -0.1 on 2022, -0.9 on 2021)
TUSC 37 (1.1%, -0.2 on 2023, +0.2 on 2022, +0.2 on 2021)

Lab hold

Waltham Forest; Higham Hill

Lab 924 (57.3%, -3.6)
Lib Dem 268 (16.6%, +7.0)
Green 198 (12.3%, -7.8)
TUSC 144 (8.9%, +4.1)
Con 78 (4.8%, +0.2)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Lab hold

Lancashire County Council; Burnley Central West

Green 630 (32.4%, +1.4)
Lab 583 (30.0%, +14.7)
Con 574 (29.5%, +5.7)
Lib Dem 156 (8.0%, -3.1)
(changes from 2021)

Green hold

Burnley; Trinity

Green 347 (59.5%, -4.5 on 2023, -7.2 on 2022, +2.1 on 2021)
Lab 163 (28.0%, +1.0 on 2023, +4.1 on 2022, +6.1 on 2021)
Con 73 (12.5%, +3.5 on 2023, +3.2 on 2022, -2.2 on 2021)

Green hold

[YL]

A less bad week for the Tories, though they didn't have any seats to lose.

I suspect a student turnout effect in Earlsdon caused by it being before this year's electoral register comes out: people will say that students don't vote in local elections, and of course there's some truth to this, but some do, and in a place as student heavy as Earlsdon they will have an effect and one which would normally help Labour.

Higham Hill is an unusually good result for TUSC; I wonder whether there's a small Gaza effect there?

Fellow cricket followers may know the winner in Golden Valley South as the journalist and former Wisden editor Matthew Engel.

[YL]

Lancashire County Council; Burnley Central West

Green 630 (32.4%, +1.4)
Lab 583 (30.0%, +14.7)
Con 574 (29.5%, +5.7)
Lib Dem 156 (8.0%, -3.1)
(changes from 2021)

Green hold

Burnley; Trinity

Green 347 (+2.1 on 2021)
Lab 163 (+6.1 on 2021)
Con 73 (-2.2 on 2021)

Green hold

Interesting that the swing was noticeably different in the country council ward to (one) of its constituents district wards. it’s quite a demographically and especially politically polarised county council ward and seems to have gotten even more so yesterday.

This is at least partly to do with the disappearance of the Burnley and Padiham Independent Party, who got 17.5% in 2021 in the county council division but much less in Trinity ward (and hadn't stood since).  The Labour candidate in the county council election is actually a councillor in another Burnley ward (also overlapping with the county division) elected under that label.

[YL]

I suspect there might be some low turnouts in these given the weather today, though none of them are in the worst affected areas.

Thursday 2 November

Andrew Teale's preview

Rotherham; Kilnhurst & Swinton East

Lab 810 (64.6%, +7.1)
Con 293 (23.4%, -7.3)
Reform UK 58 (4.6%, new)
Yorkshire Party 38 (3.0%, new)
Lib Dem 30 (2.4%, -4.1)
Green 25 (2.0%, new)
(changes from 2021 "top vote")

Lab hold

Trafford; Bucklow St Martins

Lab 794 (62.2%, -3.3)
Con 284 (22.3%, +3.4)
Reform UK 82 (6.4%, new)
Green 80 (6.3%, -3.7)
Lib Dem 36 (2.8%, -2.8)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lab hold

Buckinghamshire; Buckingham East

Lib Dem 690 (39.8%, +29.3)
Con 593 (34.2%, -5.5)
Lab 371 (21.4%, +7.3)
Green 81 (4.7%, -5.4)
(changes from 2021 "top vote")

Lib Dem gain from Con; ward now 2 Con, 1 Lib Dem

Argyll & Bute; South Kintyre

First preferences:
Ind Kelly 913 (57.7%, new)
SNP 271 (17.1%, -15.7)
Con 208 (13.1%, -9.4)
Lib Dem 183 (11.6%, +2.8)
Freedom Alliance 7 (0.4%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Ind hold (on first count)

Melton; Asfordby

Lab 163 (34.1%, new)
Con 123 (25.7%, +1.6)
Ind Faulkner 100 (20.9%, new)
Green 92 (19.2%, -10.9)
(changes on 2023 "top vote")

Lab gain from Green; ward now 1 Ind, 1 Lab

Elmbridge; Molesey East

Lib Dem 694 (36.1%, -6.5 on 2023, -0.1 on 2022, +17.1 on 2021)
Con 627 (32.6%, +11.4 on 2023, -3.8 on 2022, +2.0 on 2021)
Molesey Residents 523 (27.2%, -4.5 on 2023, +6.6 on 2022, -7.6 on 2021)
Green 77 (4.0%, didn't stand in 2023, +0.2 on 2022, -4.4 on 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Molesey Residents; ward now 2 Lib Dem, 1 Con

City of London; Cripplegate

Lab 279 (40.8%)
Ind Hogg 182 (26.6%)
Ind Petroschka 177 (25.9%)
Ind Mielken 46 (6.7%)

Lab gain from Ind; ward now 4 Lab, 4 Ind.

City of London; Langbourn (alderman)

Ind Pryke 57
Ind Scott 31
Ind Bologna 22
Ind Biggs 15
Ind Bridgeland 13
Ind Denison-Pender 7
Ind Gocher 7
Ind Barrington-Hibbert 5
Ind Wright 5

"Ind hold"

[YL]

An unusual example of Labour winning a seat "from nowhere", though they had won in the area in the past.  And a rather less unusual example of the Lib Dems surging to win a seat in a historically strongly Tory area.

[YL]

An unusual example of Labour winning a seat "from nowhere", though they had won in the area in the past.  And a rather less unusual example of the Lib Dems surging to win a seat in a historically strongly Tory area.

which seat are you referring too?

Asfordby for the first and Buckingham East for the second.

A statistical quirk perhaps - but if you treat the two Indies who stood in that Bucks seat in 2021 as a team and not separate individuals, the fall in the Tory share is almost doubled to nearly 10%.

Indeed, but I think this is just an illustration that there isn't a single way to calculate percentages in multi-member FPTP and none of them are entirely satisfactory.  Sometimes Independents will function as a slate, sometimes not (and I don't know which in this case).  Sometimes candidates of different parties can effectively function as a slate.

[YL]

Thursday 9 November

Andrew Teale's preview

Mayor of Hackney

Lab 18474 (49.8%, -9.3)
Green 9075 (24.8%, +7.8)
Con 5039 (13.6%, +0.2)
Lib Dem 1879 (5.1%, -2.0)
Ind Smorthit 1382 (3.7%, new)
TUSC 1265 (3.4%, new)
(changes from 2022 first preferences; that election was under SV)

Lab hold

Lewisham; Deptford

Lab 1596 (71.2%, +21.4)
Green 382 (17.0%, -0.7)
Con 174 (7.8%, +0.1)
Lib Dem 91 (4.1%, -2.3)
(changes from 2022 "top vote" treating the four Independents separately)

Lab hold

Powys; Crickhowell with Cwmdu and Tretower (2 seats)

Lib Dem 698 (57.4%, -1.6)
Lib Dem 658
Con 292 (24.0%, -17.0)
Con 275
Ind Games 116 (9.5%, new)
Lab 92 (7.6%, new)
Ind Markinson 18 (1.5%, new)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

2 Lib Dem holds

Lincolnshire County Council; Grantham North

Con 762 (39.2%, -31.6)
Ind Harrison 446 (23.0%, new)
Lab 380 (19.6%, +2.1)
Green 193 (9.9%, 1.8)
Lib Dem 87 (4.5%, new)
Ind Ward 74 (3.8%, new)
(changes from 2021)

Con hold

South Kesteven; Grantham St Wulfram's

Con 361 (33.7%, +6.2)
Ind Swinburn 233 (21.8%, -3.0)
Lab 173 (16.2%, -0.7)
Green 145 (13.5%, new)
Lib Dem 135 (12.6%, new)
Ind Ward 24 (2.2%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote" treating the two Independents separately)

Con hold; ward remains 1 Ind, 1 Con

South Holland; Spalding St Paul's

Con 155+ (24.9%, -12.1) (won after drawing lots)
South Holland Ind 155 (24.9%, -38.1)
Ind Timewell* 132 (21.2%, new)
Lab 108 (17.3%, new)
Ind (no description) Wheeler 73 (11.7%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Con gain from South Holland Ind

* This candidate was shown on the ballot paper as a "True Independent".  This description is not allowed according to UK election law, which other than plain "Independent" and no description only allows registered descriptions of registered political parties.  This may mean that this result is subject to a court challenge.

[YL]

Lincolnshire remains Lincolnshire, I see.

[YL]

Thursday 16 November

Andrew Teale's preview, and Ballot Box Scotland's.

North Lanarkshire; Motherwell South East & Ravenscraig

First preferences
Lab 1368 (44.0%, +12.8)
SNP 934 (30.1%, -12.7)
Con 296 (9.5%, -7.1)
Green 255 (8.2%, +0.4)
Brit Unionist 96 (3.1%, new)
Lib Dem 68 (2.2%, new)
Alba 66 (2.1%, new)
UKIP 24 (0.8%, +0.1)
(changes from 2022)

Lab gain from SNP; see next post for transfers; ward now 2 Lab, 1 SNP, 1 Con

Doncaster; Rossington & Bawtry

Lab 1467 (56.7%, +16.2)
Con 492 (19.0%, +1.2)
Ind Cooke 461 (17.8%, -5.5)
Reform UK 168 (6.5%, new)
(changes from 2021 "top vote" counting the two Independents then separately)

Lab hold

Bolton; Kearsley

Farnworth and Kearsley First 1081 (66.0%, +42.5)
Lab 365 (22.3%, +8.2)
Reform UK/Bolton for Change 121 (7.4%, +1.2)
Con 38 (2.3%, -6.9)
Green 18 (1.1%, new)
Lib Dem 15 (0.9%, -0.1)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

FKF gain from One Kearsley who did not defend the seat; ward now 2 Lab (both elected as One Kearsley), 1 FKF

Bolton; Westhoughton North & Hunger Hill

Lib Dem 959 (41.5%, +11.3)
Con 665 (28.8%, -0.7)
Lab 440 (19.0%, -1.2)
Westhoughton First 118 (5.1%, -5.3)
Reform UK/Bolton for Change 101 (4.4%, -0.7)
Green 28 (1.2%, -3.4)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem gain from Con; ward now 2 Lib Dem, 1 Con

North Somerset; Wrington

Green 336 (32.7%, new)
Con 297 (28.9%, +6.8)
Lib Dem 283 (27.5%, new)
Lab 112 (10.9%, new)
(changes from 2023)

Green gain from Ind

Ceredigion; Aberystwyth Penparcau

Plaid 201 (36.7%, -9.8)
Lab 122 (22.3%, -5.5)
Ind Morgan 122 (22.3%, new)
Lib Dem 76 (13.9%, -0.3)
Con 27 (4.9%, new)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Plaid hold

[YL]

Here's Ballot Box Scotland's chart of the transfers in Motherwell South East & Ravenscraig:

[YL]

Here's Ballot Box Scotland's chart of the transfers in Motherwell South East & Ravenscraig:

That's a very strong Con -> Lab transfer rate.

Yes, though not unusual. My rule of thumb for Con transfers when there’s only Lab and SNP left is that only a handful go SNP and the rest split roughly evenly between Lab and non-transferable, which is pretty much what happened here.

It’s also a noticeably poor first preference total for the Tories: if there were a full four seat STV election with those first preferences you’d expect them to lose their seat.