UK local by-elections, 2023

[YL]

Thursday 29 June

Andrew Teale's preview

Bedford; Wyboston

Con 610 (63.1%, -12.9)
Lib Dem 323 (33.4%, +19.9)
Lab 34 (3.5%, -7.0)
(changes from 2023)

Con hold

Haringey; Hermitage & Gardens

Lab 822 (59.6%, -3.6)
Green 224 (16.2%, -7.4)
Lib Dem 217 (15.7%, +8.7)
Con 100 (7.3%, +1.1)
Christian People's Alliance 16 (1.2%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Lab hold

Southwark; Newington

Lab 1524 (57.6%, -5.2)
Lib Dem 738 (27.9%, +15.4)
Green 237 (9.0%, -6.1)
Con 149 (5.6%, -3.9)
(changes from 2022)

Lab hold

Dorset; Sherborne West

Lib Dem 589 (50.8%, -2.7)
Con 489 (42.2%, +4.1)
Lab 81 (6.9%, new)
(changes from 2019)

Lib Dem hold

Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole; East Cliff & Springbourne

Green 817 (38.4%, +9.5)
Con 614 (28.8%, -0.5)
Lab 590 (27.7%, -5.9)
Lib Dem 108 (5.1%, -3.2)
(changes from 2023 top vote)

Green gain from Lab

[YL]

Good result for the Greens in Bournemouth, though the circumstances (a case where a newly elected councillor resigned within days) were unlikely to be helpful for Labour.

[YL]

Except that it isn't actually a universal rule - Oxford is bringing in similar driving measures, and there hasn't yet been a Tory return from the dead there electorally.

The Oxford scheme is different, isn’t it?  Not actually a congestion charge, but restrictions on using certain roads, and they only apply to city residents if they want to use them a lot.

[YL]

Tuesday 4 July

Cambridge; King’s Hedges

Con 622 (34.9%, +3.0 on 2023, +21.9 on 2022)
Lab 598 (33.6%, -5.8 on 2023, -17.0 on 2022)
Lib Dem 418 (23.5%, +8.5 on 2023, +3.5 on 2022)
Green 142 (8.0%, -6.0 on 2023, -8.4 on 2022)

Con gain from Lab

[YL]

Wot, no colouring in?

I don't know what you're talking about

(But seriously, the reason this thread died before is because the only person who was posting the results stopped doing so.  So I'd suggest that others should be prepared to do so if I don't.)

[YL]

Thursday 6 July

Andrew Teale's preview

Kent County Council; Maidstone Central

Lib Dem 1860 (28.5%, -1.6)
Green 1849 (28.4%, +13.9)
Con 1564 (24.0%, -12.4)
Lab 914 (14.0%, -5.0)
Reform UK 278 (4.3%, new)
Ind Kenward 56 (0.9%, new)
(changes from 2021 "top vote")

Lib Dem hold (this is a 2 member division which elected one Con and one Lib Dem in 2021)

South Lanarkshire; East Kilbride West

First preferences

Lab 1386 (40.3%, +14.0)
Con 904 (26.3%, +6.5)
SNP 778 (22.6%, -8.2)
Green 131 (3.8%, new)
Ind Keane 99 (2.9%, new)
Lib Dem 83 (2.4%, +0.3)
Scottish Family Party 42 (1.2%, -0.4)

Lab gain from SNP
(on count 6; I will try to post transfer details later)
Ward now 2 Lab, 1 Ind

[YL]

East Kilbride West transfers

	C  1	Family	C  2	Lib Dem	C  3	Keane	C  4	Green	C 5	SNP	C 6
		transfers		transfers		transfers		transfers		transfers
Lab	1386	6	1392	42	1434	35	1469	31	1500	345	1845
Con	904	10	914	5	919	14	933	4	937	28	965
SNP	778	0	778	7	785	21	806	93	899	-899
Green	131	0	131	8	139	16	155	-155		0
Keane	99	13	112	11	123	-123		0		0
LD	83	2	85	-85		0		0		0
Family	42	-42		0		0		0		0
nt	0	11	11	12	23	37	60	27	87	526	613

[YL]

Thursday 13 July

Andrew Teale's preview

Norfolk County Council; West Depwade

Green 663 (29.0%, +19.7)
Con 582 (25.4%, -18.2)
Lib Dem 409 (17.9%, +7.4)
Ind Spratt 405 (17.7%, -6.0)
Lab 228 (10.0%, -2.8)
(changes from 2021)

Green gain from Con

Rotherham; Dinnington

Con 1064 (42.7%, +10.5)
Lab 820 (32.9%, +10.2)
Lib Dem 262 (10.5%, +2.4)
Ind Smith 196 (7.9%, -9.1)
Reform UK 61 (2.4%, new)
Green 59 (2.4%, -6.6)
Yorkshire Party 28 (1.1%, new)
(changes from 2021 top vote)

Con hold

Newham; Boleyn

Ind Mirza 1153 (42.5%, new)
Lab 871 (32.1%, -27.0)
Green 572 (21.1%, +3.5)
Con 69 (2.5%, -15.6)
Reform UK 23 (0.8%, new)
Lib Dem 22 (0.8%, new)
(changes from 2022 top vote)

Ind Mirza gain from Lab

Newham; Wall End

Lab 1659 (61.1%, +12.5%)
Con 739 (27.2%, +5.3)
Lib Dem 138 (5.1%, new)
Green 123 (4.5%, -4.5)
Reform UK 58 (2.1%, -0.3)

Lab hold

City of London; Castle Baynard (alderman)

Ind Grekos 173
Ind Saluja 148
Ind Bridgeland 27
Ind Goodchild 18
Ind Artesi 8
Ind Wong 5
Ind Shah 0 (sic)

[YL]

That really is a shockingly good result for the Tories in Dinnington.

[YL]

why does city of London always have mostly independents running?

The City is very odd.  Its residential population is tiny -- among principal authorities only Scilly is smaller -- and unlike any other council it retains a business vote: most votes in City elections are cast by nominated employees of companies with offices there.  I think both of those things, together with its very long history, encourage a tradition that most candidates are nominally Independent.

The wards are drawn so that most residential voters are concentrated in four wards: Aldersgate and Cripplegate, which cover the Barbican development (think upmarket Brutalism) and the nearby Golden Lane estate, Portsoken, which borders Tower Hamlets, and Queenhithe, which I think is mostly riverside apartments.

Labour have stood a number of candidates in recent years, and some of them have even been elected, but they concentrate on the residential wards.  There have also been some slates of candidates who have formed their own small parties, and there are certainly party members (including Labour ones) among the Independent candidates.

[YL]

A bit of a sideshow from the main event...

Thursday 20 July

Andrew Teale's preview (includes the Parliamentary by-elections)

Ceredigion; Llanfarian

Lib Dem 298 (48.2%, -19.9)
Plaid Cymru 290 (46.9%, +15.0)
Con 30 (4.9%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Lib Dem hold

Swindon; St Margaret & South Marston

Con 1143 (50.6%, +11.6 on 2023, +2.2 on 2022, -5.9 on 2021)
Lab 1118 (49.4%, -0.4 on 2023, -2.2 on 2022, +15.0 on 2021)

Con gain from Lab

Worcester; Nunnery

Lab 1048 (59.7%, +12.1 on 2023, +13.2 on 2022 "top vote"+ 23.6 on 2021)
Con 518 (29.5%, -2.7 on 2023, +0.2 on 2022 "top vote", -21.0 on 2021)
Lib Dem 102 (5.8%, -0.5 on 2023, +0.7 on 2022 "top vote", +3.2 on 2021)
Ind Carney 88 (5.0%, no change on 2023, -1.9 on 2022 "top vote")

[YL]

I wonder why Conservatives gained a seat in Swindon.

I don't know, but possibly it's to do with people no longer having a Conservative council to protest against.

[YL]

Here are last week's raw results.  I haven't had time to work out vote share changes; several of them are from previous multi-vacancy elections which always complicates this.

Thursday 27 July

East Sussex County Council; Heathfield & Mayfield

Green 1373 (61.5%)
Con 858 (38.5%)

Green gain from Con

Buckinghamshire; Denham

Con 848 (42.2%)
Lib Dem 634 (31.5%)
Ind Harding 404 (20.1%)
Lab 125 (6.2%)

Con hold

Plymouth; Plymstock Dunstone

Lab 1072 (33.2%)
Con 919 (28.4%)
Lib Dem 596 (18.4%)
Ind Stickland 480 (14.9%)
Green 97 (3.0%)
Heritage 55 (1.7%)
TUSC 12 (0.4%)

Lab gain from Con

Plymouth; St Peter & the Waterfront

Lab 1126 (48.0%)
Con 488 (20.8%)
Green 206 (8.8%)
Lib Dem 175 (7.5%)
Reform UK 174 (7.4%)
Ind Singh 126 (5.4%)
TUSC 52 (2.2%)

Lab hold

Warrington; Poulton North

Lab 999 (56.3%)
Con 606 (34.2%)
Lib Dem 168 (9.5%)

Lab hold

[YL]

Thursday 3 August

Andrew Teale's preview

East Sussex County Council; Meads

Lib Dem 1649 (50.0%, +10.0)
Con 1367 (41.4%, -4.2)
Lab 157 (4.8%, -1.1)
Green 127 (3.8%, -2.3)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Con

Norfolk County Council; Freebridge Lynn

Lib Dem 669 (38.4%, new)
Con 539 (31.0%, -33.7)
Green 418 (24.0%, +4.3)
Lab 115 (6.6%, -9.0)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Con

Reading; Norcot

Lab 929 (58.2%, +0.2)
Lib Dem 280 (17.5%, +11.4)
Con 209 (13.1%, -4.8)
Green 101 (6.3%, -3.6)
Ind Gulliver 49 (3.1%, -0.3)
TUSC 28 (1.8%, -0.1)
(changes from 2023)

Lab hold

Dudley; Cradley & Wollescote

Lib Dem 1321 (52.2%, +14.3 on 2023, +21.4 on 2022, +41.3 on 2021)
Lab 771 (30.5%, -8.2 on 2023, -8.3 on 2022, -8.3 on 2021)
Con 353 (14.0%, -4.9 on 2023, -16.4 on 2022, -30.0 on 2021)
Green 79 (3.1%, -0.2 on 2023, n/a on 2022 or 2021)
TUSC 5 (0.2%, -0.7 on 2023, n/a on 2022 or 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Lab

[YL]

The East Sussex result means that that council is now formally in No Overall Control, though the Tories still have exactly half the seats.

The Dudley result brings an end to a period where the Lib Dems had no councillors at all in any of the four Black Country boroughs.

[YL]

Thursday 10 August

Andrew Teale's preview

Somerset; Castle Cary

Lib Dem 1247 (54.8%, +10.4)
Con 614 (27.0%, -15.7)
Green 415 (18.2%, +5.3)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Lib Dem gain from Con; this is a two seat division and each party won one seat in 2022

Havering; Upminster

Upminster and Cranham Residents 1642 (63.2%, +0.1)
Con 421 (16.2%, -3.7)
Lab 234 (9.0%, -0.4)
Ind Durant 150 (5.8%, new)
Green 115 (4.4%, -3.1)
Lib Dem 35 (1.3%, new)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

UCRA hold

Wychavon; Evesham South

Green 319 (45.2%, -4.0)
Con 177 (25.1%, +1.2)
Ind Haines 82 (11.6%, new)
Lab 79 (11.2%, new)
Ind Snape 36 (5.1%, new)
Lib Dem 12 (1.7%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Green hold

[YL]

Thursday 17 August

Andrew Teale's preview

Middlesbrough, Ayresome

Ind Young 318 (36.1%, new)
Lab 294 (33.4%, -13.7)
Lib Dem 201 (22.8%, +14.6)
Green 32 (3.6%, new)
Con 30 (3.4%, -14.8)
Ind Rathmell 5 (0.6%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Ind Young gain from Lab

St Albans, Marshalswick East & Jersey Farm

Lib Dem 774 (46.0%, -3.9)
Con 661 (39.3%, +5.3)
Green 102 (6.1%, -2.3)
Lab 82 (4.9%, -2.8)
Ind Posner 62 (3.7%, new)
(changes from 2023)

Lib Dem hold

[YL]

Thursday 24 August

Andrew Teale's preview

Bristol; Bishopston & Ashley Down

Green 1294 (50.2%, -3.2)
Lab 981 (38.1%, +10.6)
Lib Dem 184 (7.1%, -5.5)
Con 91 (3.5%, -3.0)
TUSC 26 (1.0%, new)
(changes from 2021 "top vote")

Green hold

Dudley; St James's

Lab 860 (49.3%, -4.6 on 2023, +3.2 on 2022, +9.7 on 2021)
Con 719 (41.2%, +0.6 on 2023, -5.2 on 2022, -12.6 on 2021)
Ind Tasker 84 (4.8%, new)
Green 50 (2.9%, new)
Lib Dem 32 (1.8%, -3.7 on 2023, -5.7 on 2022, -4.7 on 2021)

Lab gain from Con

Isle of Wight; Wootton Bridge

Lib Dem 475 (47.9%, new)
Con 291 (29.3%, -2.5)
Vectis 178 (17.9%, -29.4)
Green 48 (4.8%, -8.7)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Vectis

[YL]

According to figures from the last census, the population is only about 10% students (and hence the electorate will be substantially less again.) By Bristol standards that's not that studenty and I don't think that will have had a big impact on the result.

I mean, when I was an undergrad (16-18) I lived in that ward. It was pretty studenty then. It contains 2/3 of the Gloucester Road.

Actually the NS-SEC figures in the 2021 census show it as 17.3% "Full Time Students".

Central 50.6%
Clifton Down 32.7%
Cotham 31.7%
Hotwells & Harbourside 28.4%
Clifton 28.2%
Stoke Bishop 26.6% (lots of University owned accommodation here)
Lawrence Hill 17.9%
Bishopston & Ashley Down 17.3%
Ashley 17.1%
Horfield 16.2%
Redland 14.8%
Frome Vale 14.1% (UWE I imagine)
others below this (including everything south of the river)

So unless student turnout in local elections is unusually high in that area I wouldn't think their absence would make that much difference.

[YL]

And the result not mentioned yet was widely expected to be a Tory gain - for them to actually drop slightly in vote share is a pretty dismal result in the circumstances.

The other thing about this week's results, including the Wight one, is the continued tendency for the Lib Dems to either win or get almost nothing.  That has also been noted in Parliamentary by-elections in this Parliament, and while I doubt it'll be as close to being true in a General Election it could lead to them doing unusually well at turning votes into seats for a third party in an FPTP system.

[YL]

Thursday 31 August

Andrew Teale's preview

Kirklees, Batley East

Lab 2248 (73.7%, +29.6 on 2023, +29.1 on 2022, +6.1 on 2021)
Con 413 (13.5%, -30.5 on 2023, -1.6 on 2022, -8.8 on 2021)
Lib Dem 178 (5.8%, -0.1 on 2023, +2.7 on 2022, +3.1 on 2021)
Green 145 (4.8%, -0.9 on 2023, +0.7 on 2022, -1.1 on 2021)
Yorkshire Party 42 (1.4%, new)
SDP 24 (0.8%, new)

Lab hold

Derbyshire County Council, Swadlincote South

Lab 786 (62.2%, +29.8)
Con 477 (37.8%, -21.4)
(changes from 2021)

Lab gain from Con

Caerphilly, Penmaen

Lab 457 (35.1%, -29.4)
Plaid 346 (26.6%, -8.9)
Ind Edwards 247 (19.0%, new)
Lib Dem 125 (9.6%, new)
Con 120 (9.2%, new)
Gwlad 8 (0.6%, new)
(changes from 2022 “top vote”)

Lab hold

[YL]

Tories spectacularly fall off their 2021 peak in Swadlincote.

Note that George Galloway’s outfit stood in Batley East in 2022, following his performance in the Batley & Spen by-election, and got quite close to winning; this fills in the gap in the vote share changes from that year. It does look like a substantial block of votes went for them then, the Tory in May and Labour yesterday; this sort of thing can happen in heavily Muslim wards like this one.

[YL]

Wednesday 6 September

Andrew Teale's preview

Spelthorne; Ashford Town

Con 562 (37.5%, +18.4)
Ind Enright 420 (28.0%)
Green 252 (16.8%, -1.1)
Lab 212 (14.1%, -1.0)
Reform UK 35 (2.3%)
TUSC 19 (1.3%)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Con gain from Green

I've calculated the vote share from May's election in the way I usually do for multi-member elections, but it's a bit misleading here, because there was effectively a Labour/Green slate and there were also three Independents who got substantial votes, and who I've treated separately.  One Independent, the top Conservative and the top Green were elected in May.

[YL]

Thursday 7 September

Andrew Teale's preview

Manchester; Brooklands

Lab 923 (57.7%, -8.4 on 2023, -2.5 on 2022, +0.1 on 2021)
Con 189 (11.8%, -0.3 on 2023, -11.2 on 2022, -11.7 on 2021)
Lib Dem 178 (11.1%, +6.2 on 2023, +5.6 on 2022, +7.3 on 2021)
Green 177 (11.1%, +0.9 on 2023, -0.2 on 2022, -2.0 on 2021)
Reform UK 133 (8.3%, +2.0 on 2023, didn't stand in 2021 or 2022)
(2021 was a double vacancy, so "top vote" used there)

Lab hold

Shropshire; Worfield

Lib Dem 400 (48.1%, +33.5)
Con 392 (47.1%, -27.9)
Lab 40 (4.8%)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Con

Broadland; Thorpe St Andrew North West

Con 870 (50.5%, +8.8)
Lab 757 (43.9%, -3.7)
Lib Dem 96 (5.6%, -5.2)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Con gain from Lab; ward now 2 Lab, 1 Con

Newcastle under Lyme; Audley

Lab 732 (46.1%, -2.7)
Con 438 (27.6%, -10.9)
Lib Dem 355 (22.4%, +9.7)
Ind O'Dwyer 63 (4.0%, new)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Lab hold; ward remains split 1 Lab, 2 Con

Newcastle under Lyme; Knutton

Lab 153 (49.0%, +1.1)
Con 99 (31.7%, -2.8)
Lib Dem 60 (19.2%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Lab hold

City of London; Bread Street (alderman)

Ind Russell 81
Ind Loveday 26

Ind Russell hold

[YL]

why do elections in the City of London almost always feature solely independents?

afaik it's because hardly any of the votes come from actual residents and instead come from corporations? So basically it's just independents without much agenda other than "what's good for the company who elected me"

Of course, I'm an across the pond dummy, so I don't know if I actually am correct here.

Here's what I said last time he asked the question:

why does city of London always have mostly independents running?

The City is very odd.  Its residential population is tiny -- among principal authorities only Scilly is smaller -- and unlike any other council it retains a business vote: most votes in City elections are cast by nominated employees of companies with offices there.  I think both of those things, together with its very long history, encourage a tradition that most candidates are nominally Independent.

The wards are drawn so that most residential voters are concentrated in four wards: Aldersgate and Cripplegate, which cover the Barbican development (think upmarket Brutalism) and the nearby Golden Lane estate, Portsoken, which borders Tower Hamlets, and Queenhithe, which I think is mostly riverside apartments.

Labour have stood a number of candidates in recent years, and some of them have even been elected, but they concentrate on the residential wards.  There have also been some slates of candidates who have formed their own small parties, and there are certainly party members (including Labour ones) among the Independent candidates.

(so more or less yes, and Bread Street isn't one of the residential wards)