UK local by-elections, 2023

[YL]

Surely with STV you could just redo the original election count, distributing the former incumbents preferences?

But if a party did not have any further candidates then they would automatically lose a seat.

I think that's preferable to the AV system, where the by-election is majoritarian when the original election was not, TBH.  It might even encourage parties to run a few more candidates; the Scottish implementation of STV has seen parties being fairly risk-averse on how many candidates to run.

I've added the South Cambs result to the post on the previous page now.  It's quite a strong result for the Tories, presumably due to local issues (a congestion charge proposal in Cambridge, which is the sort of thing that there are always going to be complaints about in surrounding commuterland, and the Tories are the only party against it).

[YL]

Ballot Box Scotland's graph of the Dunblane & Bridge of Allan transfers:



Not a very surprising pattern: Greens going strongly to the SNP, but with respectable numbers also to Labour and the Lib Dems, Lib Dems favouring Labour over the Tories and the Tories over the SNP.  Labour transfers actually slightly widened the Con/SNP gap, though of course some of those votes had previously transferred from someone else (e.g. 1. LD 2. Lab 3. Con).

[YL]

Thursday 23 March

featuring one of our strangest councils and one of our newest

Andrew Teale's previews

North Northamptonshire; Rushden South

Con 1210 (54.6%, +5.2)
Lab 638 (28.8%, +6.7)
Lib Dem 157 (7.1%, -6.3)
Breakthrough 120 (5.4%, new)
Green 93 (4.2%, -10.8)
(changes from 2021 top vote)

Con hold

City of London; Castle Baynard

Ind Hudson 93
Ind Goodchild 47
Ind Longman 32
Ind Everett 21

City of London; Cripplegate

Ind Frampton 369
Ind Meyringer 214
Ind Mylne 46

[YL]

Hmm, strong result for the Tories in Rushden.  I guess Breakthrough will also be reasonably pleased not to come last and to get a non-embarrassing vote share for a small party.

[YL]

I’ve seen it several times, and I’m still computing that Cripplegate is an electoral ward.

Part of my brain keeps assumes that new WhatsApp messages have leaked showing a government minister making jokes about the physically disabled.

What sort of scandal do you associate with Whip-Ma-Whop-Ma-Gate (sadly not a ward name) in York?

[YL]

Thursday 30 March

Andrew Teale's previews

Barking & Dagenham; Heath

Lab 777 (62.1%, -11.7)
Con 406 (32.6%, +6.4)
Green 41 (3.3%, new)
Lib Dem 26 (2.1%, new)
(changes from 2022 top vote)

Lab hold

Gloucester; Westgate

Lib Dem 658 (43.2%, +16.5)
Con 455 (29.9%, -8.9)
Lab 351 (23.0%, +3.9)
Reform UK 37 (2.4%, new)
Monster Raving Loony 22 (1.4%, new)
(changes from 2021 top vote)

Lib Dem gain from Con

Isle of Anglesey/Ynys Môn; Aethwy

Plaid 833 (54.0%, +2.9)
Lab 291 (18.9%, -5.0)
Con 235 (15.2%, +2.5)
Lib Dem 184 (11.9%, new)
(changes from 2022 top vote)

Plaid hold

There are no local by-elections on the next two Thursdays.

[YL]

Another Reform UK performance in a local by-election which doesn't exactly support the vote shares certain pollsters have them getting.

[YL]

- You just can't extrapolate elections where the winner gets at most 800 votes. Random luck and local issues are going to have a large impact.

Especially when one of them is on Ynys Môn.

I do agree that the results in recent weeks generally look "OK" for Labour and "not great" for the Tories rather than "amazing" and "terrible" as you might think from the national polls.  (As for the other parties, the Lib Dems and Greens do well, often very well, where they try but get very little where they don't, Plaid seem to be doing fine, and the SNP results are "not great".)

We will see more in May.  At the moment I'm expecting the Tories to have a poor night but holding up well in some areas and so avoiding a 1995 redux.  Whatever, don't take whatever happens in Leicester as very informative about the national situation; you can bet some journalist somewhere will.

[YL]

Thursday 20 April

Andrew Teale's previews

Enfield; Bullsmoor

Lab 1056 (55.8%, +4.6)
Con 686 (36.2%, +6.4)
Green 81 (4.3%, -5.1)
Lib Dem 50 (2.6%, -5.0)
TUSC 20 (1.1%, -0.9)
(changes from 2022 top vote)

Lab hold

Warrington; Latchford West

Lab 662 (40.8%, -6.8)
Con 488 (30.1%, -11.4)
Lib Dem 274 (16.9%, +6.1)
Ind Bowles 199 (12.3%, "new"; see below)
(changes from 2021 top vote; NB Ind Bowles was a Conservative candidate then)

Lab hold

[YL]

Just one this week...

Thursday 27 April

Andrew Teale's preview

Swansea; Penderry

Lab 485 (53.5%, -25.7)
Lib Dem 274 (30.2%, new)
Con 71 (7.8%, -13.0)
Green 42 (4.6%, new)
Plaid Cymru 34 (3.8%, new)
(changes on 2022 top vote)

Lab hold

[YL]

There are lots of local by-elections next week alongside the scheduled elections, of course.

Yes, a few in county councils and a couple in unitaries which aren't up.  There's also the usual crop of double vacancy elections in wards in thirds councils where there's a casual vacancy.

I doubt I'll have time next Friday to post anything about them, but that shouldn't stop anyone else...

Edit: I think this is the list of by-elections in councils which don't have any other elections, based on a list in another place:

Cambridgeshire County Council; Arbury
Cambridgeshire County Council; Soham South & Haddenham
Durham; Chester-le-Street East
Essex County Council; Laindon Park & Fryerns
Gloucestershire County Council; Highnam
Hampshire County Council; Purbrook & Stakes South
Kent County Council; Sheppey
Lincolnshire County Council; Eagle & Hykeham West
Norfolk County Council; Swaffham
Nottinghamshire County Council; Kirkby South
Suffolk County Council; Felixstowe Coastal
Suffolk County Council; Priory Heath
Surrey County Council; Walton South & Oatlands
West Sussex County Council; East Grinstead Meridian
Westmorland & Furness; Old Barrow & Hindpool (this council's first ever by-election)
Worcestershire County Council; Malvern Chase

(Colour coding refers to defending party; NB the green is not the Greens, but the Ashfield Independents.)

[YL]

Back to by-elections, with an unusual Wednesday scheduling.

Wednesday 17 May

Andrew Teale's preview

Stroud; Painswick & Upton

Green 1168 (45.9%, +11.9)
Con 817 (32.1%, -10.3)
Lib Dem 381 (15.0%, new)
Lab 180 (7.1%, -16.5)
(changes from 2021 "top vote")

Green gain from Con

[YL]

I think Greens will be happy with that in a council where they provide the leadership.

The numbers probably look worse than they really are for Labour: it's not exactly an area where they would be expected to do well, and in 2021 there were two Greens and one Labour candidate for a three seat ward, so many voters will presumably have gone Green/Green/Lab then and Green now.

NB there are two sets of figures circulating on Twitter for this, but I checked the council's Tweet with the declaration, and the Tory vote is clearly 817, not 877 as in the other version.

[YL]

Yes, but *this* bit of Stroud is much more like Gloucester - if you get my drift.

Upton yes, but I think the rest of the ward fits more with Stroud and the Five Valleys.

[YL]

Another oddity, and not one that'll tell us much about UK politics in general...

Monday 22 May

Andrew Teale's preview

Isles of Scilly, St Mary's

Ind Peacock 301 (67.6%)
Ind Jones 144 (32.4%)

[YL]

Back to Thursdays, and a rebel Labour councillor standing for re-election against his old party.

Thursday 25 May

Andrew Teale's preview

North Yorkshire; Eastfield

Ind Randerson 499 (46.4%, "new")
Lib Dem 281 (26.1%, new)
Lab 169 (15.7%, -57.6)
Con 69 (6.4%, -16.0)
Ind Thorne 39 (3.6%, new)
Green 19 (1.8%, -2.5)
(changes from 2022; note that Ind Randerson was the Labour candidate then)

Ind Randerson gain from Lab

[YL]

Back to Thursdays, and a rebel Labour councillor standing for re-election against his old party.

Thursday 25 May

Andrew Teale's preview

North Yorkshire; Eastfield

Ind Randerson 499 (46.4%, "new")
Lib Dem 281 (26.1%, new)
Lab 169 (15.7%, -57.6)
Con 69 (6.4%, -16.0)
Ind Thorne 39 (3.6%, new)
Green 19 (1.8%, -2.5)
(changes from 2022; note that Ind Randerson was the Labour candidate then)

Ind Randerson gain from Lab

This is a really absurd looking result.  This by-election was caused by Randersons own resignation from the Council when he left Labour last month, and his supporters are describing him as a "Social Justice Party" candidate, but this is not a registered party.

[YL]

Thursday 1 June

Andrew Teale's preview

Camden; South Hampstead

Lab 882 (35.7%, -18.8)
Con 766 (31.0%, -0.4)
Lib Dem 531 (21.5%, +7.5)
Green 295 (11.9%, new)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Lab hold

[YL]

Thursday 8 June

Andrew Teale's preview

Wiltshire; Tisbury

Lib Dem 1028 (67.0%, +19.4)
Con 507 (33.0%, -0.8)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem hold

[YL]

Tuesday 13 June

Andrew Teale's preview

St Albans; St Peters

Green 628 (44.7%, -1.4)
Lib Dem 537 (38.2%, +4.8)
Con 156 (11.1%, +0.1)
Lab 84 (6.0%, -3.5)
(changes from 2023; see note below)

Green gain from Lib Dem

Note: St Albans had an all up election in 2022 on new ward boundaries, and this is a three member ward.  In this ward, there was a pact between the Lib Dems and Greens in that election, with two Lib Dem candidates and one Green, all of whom were elected.  (For this reason I don't think percentage changes from that election are very useful.)  The 2023 election the above changes are based on had the Green councillor defending; this by-election was a Lib Dem defence.

[YL]

As this election didn't involve their established councillor, I suspect the Greens will be happy enough with that.

A note on what's coming up tomorrow and next week: in the UK if a candidate dies during an election (even after the polls have closed but before the declaration of the result) the usual rule has been that the election is cancelled or abandoned and re-run several weeks later.  In cases involving the deaths of Independent candidates this is no longer true for Westminster elections, but it remains true in all cases for local elections.  These re-run elections are I think technically not by-elections, but they look a lot like them.  There are several of these arising from May's local elections, both tomorrow and next week.

[YL]

Thursday 15 June

Andrew Teale's preview

North Lanarkshire; Bellshill

First preferences

Lab 1416 (52.2%, +13.4)
SNP 740 (27.3%, -13.5)
Con 233 (8.6%, -5.0)
Brit Unionist 108 (4.0%, new)
Alba 103 (3.8%, +1.6)
Green 43 (1.6%, new)
Lib Dem 30 (1.1%, new)
Scottish Family Party 28 (1.0%, new)
Freedom Alliance 7 (0.3%, new)
UKIP 5 (0.2%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Lab gain from SNP

Plymouth; Efford & Lipson

Lab 1204 (58.5%, -0.4 on 2023, -2.1 on 2022, +6.4 on 2021, +4.1 on 2019)
Con 423 (20.6%, -1.0 on 2023, -4.7 on 2022, -15.6 on 2021, +2.1 on 2019)
Green 196 (9.6%, -2.1 on 2023, +2.4 on 2022, +2.3 on 2021, didn't stand in 2019)
Lib Dem 80 (3.9%, , -1.5 on 2023, -0.7 on 2022, +0.8 on 2021, -3.8 on 2019)
Ind Singh 69 (3.4%, new)
Heritage 54 (2.6%, new)
TUSC 23 (1.1%, -1.3 on 2023, -1.1% on 2022, -0.3 on 2021)

Lab hold

Sunderland; Hendon (postponed poll)

Lab 878 (43.6%, -2.1 on 2022, +8.8 on 2021, +6.6 on 2019)
Lib Dem 865 (43.0%, +4.8 on 2022, +0.8 on 2021, +36.9 on 2019)
Con 104 (5.2%, -6.6 on 2022, -10.3 on 2021)
Reform UK 87 (4.3%, new)
Green 79 (3.9%, didn't stand in 2022, -0.6 on 2021, -4.7 on 2019)

Lab hold

South Derbyshire; Hilton (postponed poll; 3 seats)

Lib Dem 636 (38.9%, did not stand in 2019, +18.4 on May 2021)
Con 633 (38.7%, -15.9 on 2019, -18.3 on May 2021)
Lib Dem 628
Con 580
Con 577
Lib Dem 562
Lab 365 (22.3%, -5.5 on 2019, +3.2 on May 2021)
Lab 361
Lab 337
("top vote" for percentages; the May 2021 by-election was for two of the three seats)

2 Lib Dem gains from Con, 1 Con hold

Surrey Heath; Frimley Green (postponed poll; 3 seats)

Lib Dem 1131 (60.5%, +11.5% on 2019, +13.1 on Oct 2021)
Lib Dem 1111
Lib Dem 1070
Con 738 (39.5%, +10.6 on 2019, -9.0 on Oct 2021)
Con 610
Con 608
("top vote", changes from 2019 "top vote" and Oct 2021 by-election)

2 Lib Dem holds, 1 Lib Dem regain seat lost to Con in Oct 2021 by-election

West Devon; Burrator (postponed poll; 2 seats)

Lib Dem 510 (48.5%)
Lib Dem 401
Con 275 (26.1%)
Con 221
Green 166 (15.8%)
Lab 101 (9.6%)
Green 76

1 Lib Dem hold, 1 Lib Dem gain from Con.  The two councillors elected in 2019 were elected unopposed, hence no percentage changes.

[YL]

The result in Plymouth is also Labour almost unchanged on last month, and the Tories down 1%.

I mention this partly because it is the very first byelection with which a 2023 comparison can be made - there are going to be a few more of them in the coming weeks as we get some vacancies caused by people who never expected to be elected then, promptly resigning.

Sorry, because I'd been entering all the ones for the postponed polls I'd forgotten that that one actually did have a 2023 election.  I've added the changes from that now.

I've also added changes from the May 2021 by-election in Hilton, South Derbyshire.

[YL]

All results now in.  Bellshill looks excellent for Labour, who would probably win three out of four in a full election on those numbers, and poor for the SNP.  The English results look good for the Lib Dem by-election machine except that they didn't quite win Hendon (which they did in 2021).

[YL]

Thursday 22 June

Andrew Teale's preview

West Devon; Tavistock North

Ind Mann 233+1 (25.5%, new) won on tie break
Lib Dem 233 (25.5%, +2.4)
Green 215 (23.5%, +5.3)
Con 176 (19.3%, +5.3)
Lab 57 (6.2%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote", which doesn't really work here!)

Ind Mann gain from Green

Bath & North East Somerset; Paulton (postponed poll; 2 seats)

Lab 703 (70.0%, +17.7)
Lab 645
Con 178 (17.7%, +6.3)
Con 122
Green 69 (6.9%, new)
Lib Dem 55 (5.5%, -1.7)
Lib Dem 52
Green 51
(changes from 2019)

2 Lab holds

Southampton; Coxford (postponed poll; 3 seats)

Lab 1022 (44.0%, -1.1 on 2022, +10.6 on 2021, +14.4 on 2019)
Lab 930
Lab 880
Con 806 (34.7%, -7.5 on 2022, -18.0 on 2021, +6.4 on 2019)
Con 774
Con 712
Lib Dem 234 (10.1%, +3.8 on 2022, +3.1 on 2021, -7.9 on 2019)
Lib Dem 228
Lib Dem 157
Reform UK 130 (5.6%, new)
Green 130 (5.6%, +0.5 on 2022, +0.6 on 2021), -1.8 on 2019
Reform UK 121
Reform UK 118
Green 111
Green 104
Ind Surridge 54 (2.3%)
TUSC 35 (1.5%, +0.2 on 2022, -0.4 on 2021, -15.4 on 2019 "Socialist Alternative")
TUSC 25
TUSC 15
(NB Southampton had new ward boundaries, but this ward was unchanged)

2 Lab holds, 1 Lab gain from Con

Stockton on Tees; Hartburn (postponed poll; 3 seats)

Con 1788 (56.5%)
Con 1773
Con 1574
Lab 771 (24.4%)
Lab 681
Green 342 (10.8%)
Reform UK 264 (8.3%)
Reform UK 169
Green 134
Green 131
(no previous results on these boundaries)

3 Con wins

West Lancashire; Rural South (postponed poll; 3 seats)

Our West Lancashire 704 (49.2%)
Our West Lancashire 674
Our West Lancashire 664
Lab 486 (34.0%)
Lab 485
Lab 479
Con 242 (16.8%)
Con 233
Con 226
(no previous results on these boundaries)

3 OWL wins

Wyre; Warren (postponed poll; 2 seats)

Lab 552 (64.0%, +35.9)
Lab 503
Con 311 (36.0%, +17.6)
Con 307
(changes from 2019)

1 Lab hold, 1 Lab gain from Con elected as UKIP