Danish General Election: 1 November 2022

[YL]

What's the most likely government if Blue Bloc gets a majority?

If the six Blue parties get a majority, the government will include Liberals + Conservatives + probably Denmark Democrats.

The Moderates shouldn't be counted in the Blue Bloc. Their whole raison d'être is building a government across the centre, and keeping out the wings. So a Blue Bloc with the Moderates, would be one without New Right, DPP and likely Denmark Democrats. Løkke today said he sees Social Democrats, Social Liberals, Liberals, Conservatives and Liberal Alliance as potential government parties.

Do you think there's any interest from Venstre or the Conservatives in such a government?  If not, what happens if the Moderates do end up holding the balance of power?

[YL]

Which of Venstre or the Conservatives do you think would be more likely to support this hypothetical "broad government", or would they only support it together?

Or do you think it's more likely, in a situation where the Moderates get the balance of power, that they effectively end up joining the "red bloc" but with Enhedslisten marginalised?

It's a little confusing for some of us that the English translation of LLR's party is the same as that used for Birgitte Nyborg's original party in Borgen; I think the Danish names are different, though.  (See also the "New Right", which in the English subtitles for Borgen was used for the party equivalent to the Conservatives.)

[YL]

For those on Independent Greens watch, it will especially be interesting to see how many immigrant votes they manage to mobilize. Below are some of the heavy-immigrant polling places, where Social Liberals did very well in 2019, and where the Independent Greens will need to dominate if they are to make a shock entrance into parliament. They are in Aarhus, Odense and Copenhagen, so it might be a bit late into the night:
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F802751025.htm
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F802751062.htm
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F601461035.htm
https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2022/F107101032.htm

I guess we'll find out soon enough now, but do you think there's any realistic chance that they will get into parliament?  They're consistently under half the threshold in the recent polls, so unless there's some systematic poor sampling of their potential electorate I'd have thought it very unlikely.  Or is their vote sufficiently unevenly distributed that they have a chance of getting in by winning a constituency seat when well short of the threshold?

[YL]

TV 2 exit poll is a bit better for the Soc Dems: 25.1%.

[YL]

Faroe Islands is 1 for each bloc while guessing Greenland is both for Red Bloc (although not counted yet) so Red Bloc needs 87 in Denmark proper to get over majority line or do exit polls include those?  If so would suggest Red Bloc falls just short but very close.

The exit polls don't include the Faroe and Greenland seats, so on the TV 2 one the Red Bloc would just be one short if they can get both Greenland MPs to support them.

[YL]

TV 2's just went to Red 86 Blue 73 Mod 16, with a seat moving from Danish People's Party to Enhedslisten.

[YL]

... and now DR's goes to Red 85 Blue 74 Mod 16.  I think SF gained from Liberal Alliance.

[YL]

Current projections (DR/TV2)

Soc Dem 49/51
Venstre 24/23
Moderates 16/16
Denmark Dems 15/15
Socialist People's 15/15
Liberal Alliance 14/14
Conservatives 10/10
Enhedslisten 9/9
Nye Borgerlige 6/6
Radikale 6/6
Alternative 6/6
Danish People's 5/4

[YL]

Radikale now up to 7 and Denmark Dems down to 14 in both models, while in TV 2's a seat moved from the Soc Dems to Danish People's.

[YL]

Finished - red bloc has reached 87 seats in DR's model - for now...

EDIT: Something is wrong in DR's model - the seat numbers add up to 176 (87+16+73). It seems that they just have forgotten subtracting a seat from Venstre, so the models line up.

They now have the Danish People’s Party on 4, so they’ve taken it off them instead.  So the results shown are still different: TV 2 gives Venstre 23 and DF 5, DR Venstre 24 and DF 4.

[YL]

Yes, largest remainder method on 175 seats gives SD 49, Venstre 24, Mod 16, SF 15, Den Dem 14, Lib All 14, Con 10, Enheds 9, Radikale 7, NB 6, Alt 6, DF 5, which is the same as the actual result except SD get one fewer and Venstre one more.  But if SD are assigned 50 and you run the largest remainder method on 125 seats Venstre only get 23, with the other parties unchanged, so they were indeed the ones who lost out.

Has this happened before?

[YL]

BTW if I use d'Hondt I get the Social Democrats deserving 50 (so no overhang) but Venstre and the Moderates each gaining one on the actual result, with Radikale and DF losing one each.

[YL]

Social Liberal leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen is resigning.

Forcing an election in which your party then lose more than half their seats is rarely a good career move.