UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[YL]

Speaking of Electoral Calculus, take a look at their current forecast for Rochdale...

[YL]

Rumours that a certain Nottinghamshire MP is joining Reform UK.

[YL]

There's no right time to call an election.

Reform is an itch that won't yet, go away and the PM risks defections from MP's likely to lose their seats anyway.

Major had eighteen months or so of relative party stability, economic growth and a recovering poll position. The Tories have nothing like that now.

Going after the locals in May just risks a bloodbath with activists just when they are needed.

But if they are heavily defeated in a May GE, they will lose shedloads of council seats anyway (don't forget when most of the seats were last contested, after all) The "Tories have to go in May because councillors" thing is heavily overplayed by some.

And they still have money, and so can pay people to deliver their stuff at the end of the day.

I bet Andy Street, for one, is not hoping for a may general election.

The main likely Tory beneficiaries in the local elections from having the General on the same day will be those in areas where the Lib Dems and Greens (and I suppose localists/residents/independents) are competitive locally but not for Westminster. I suspect on balance it would help them but I doubt it'll be a decisive factor in Sunak's decision making; the case for May is probably more a suspicion that they are likely to lose by even more in the autumn than in May.

[YL]

Boris Johnson, whatever else you might say about him, isn't as bad as a good 100 or more current Tory MPs in an ideological sense. Mostly because he doesn't have much of an ideology. 

Agreed, though that's not entirely a good thing either - it explains how he can mix so easily with the Bannon/Orban types as well.

Indeed, I think the combination of unscrupulousness and ideological flexibility can be pretty dangerous.

[YL]

Yes, one does wonder if he regrets quitting the Commons in a strop now.

He would have been recalled and there would have been a by-election anyway. I know they won the actual by-election, but with him on the ballot it would have been an election about Johnson rather than one about ULEZ and I suspect he would have lost.

[YL]

Wragg has a pastoral role as vice-chair of the 1922 committee, and is chair of a Commons select committee with oversight of the entire civil service. Doesn’t look like continuing in either of those roles is particularly tenable right now. Particularly given that two MPs ended up being compromised by the scammer, as a direct result of him handing over their numbers.

He’s also a massive grandstander, who’s been behind the drives to remove Johnson and Truss from No.10 and Lindsay Hoyle as Speaker, alleging tremendous moral failings (true for Johnson, exaggerated for Truss, very contentious in the case of Hoyle). That’s earnt him more enemies than friends - with a number of backbench calls for him to leave parliament entirely.

He’s probably toast. Just a question of how badly burnt.

He was standing down at the General Election anyway, so the question is whether this is bad enough for him to quit early. I assume he'll at least stand down from his 1922 Committee and select committee positions.

[YL]

William Wragg has resigned from both his 1922 Committee and select committee roles.

[YL]

Wragg has now resigned the Conservative whip.

[YL]

If the Greens abstain then the motion fails. But if they, Labour and the Lib Dems vote for no confidence and Regan abstains, it would pass 64-63. So how cross the Greens are could be important…

[YL]

Humza Yousaf's political credibility now lie in a single pair of hands. A pair of hands he said "was no great loss to the SNP". Ash Regan will probably cast the deciding vote - which is, objectively, the funniest outcome.

So what happens next?

Scenario 1: Regan supports Yousaf, and he hangs on, but hardly in a strong position.

Scenario 2: Regan abstains or votes against, so the VONC carries. Formally to trigger automatic resignation it's supposed to be a VONC in the Government, rather than the First Minister, but he'd surely be under much pressure to resign. No new FM is chosen within the 28 day window, triggering a snap election. The date is chosen by the Presiding Officer; are we looking at September?

Scenario 3: As scenario 2, but Yousaf is replaced as SNP leader and FM (by whom? Forbes?) and Regan falls in line, avoiding the election, but how on earth would that work with the factional battles within the SNP?

[YL]

Another Tory MP has defected to Labour.

Dan Poulter, MP for Central Suffolk & North Ipswich. Or, rather, Dr Dan Poulter, as that appears to be related to his reasoning: Observer article explaining it

[YL]

Alba are demanding the SNP stand aside in multiple Holyrood seats if they are to support Yousaf as first minister. Given Alba only have 1 incumbent by defection, and presumably don’t want no-hoper seats, this would mean the SNP surrendering constituencies they have incumbent MSPs in. I’m sure fellow posters can guess how likely the SNP are to agree to such a demand.

Indeed Alba have never had anybody elected to anything. Given that there have been STV local elections in every council in Scotland as well as an AMS Scottish Parliament election since they were formed, this is quite impressive in a way.

[YL]

New thread for the leadership election

[YL]

One of the more unexpected defections, to put it mildly.

[YL]

I wouldn’t have thought that an event to welcome a defector would be “long in the planning”, though I suppose the “special guest” could be a late addition.

The rumour mill is in overdrive, needless to say.

[YL]

- Put 2 and 2 together
- Make 5
- Tweet about it
- Watch your rumour spread like wildfire

(Only works if you have enough followers, I suppose.)