UK By-elections thread, 2021-

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Candidates finally being called for the provisional result in Wellingborough.

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Lab 13844 (45.9%, +19.5)
Con 7408 (24.6%, -37.6)
Reform UK 3919 (13.0%, new)
Lib Dem 1422 (4.7%, -3.1)
Turner-Hawes 1115 (3.7%, new)
Green 1020 (3.4%, -0.1)
Watts 533 (1.8%, new)
Britain First 477   (1.6%, new)
OMRLP 217 (0.7%, new)
Pyne-Bailey 172 (0.6%, new)
Love   18 (0.1%, new)

Majority 6436      
Swing 28.5%      

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This appears to be the biggest fall in the Conservative vote share in a by-election on record, at least since 1945, breaking the Christchurch 1993 record.

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Labour beating the Tories by 10%, while Reform gets 10.4%, is going to drive certain strategists up the wall.

Presumably we'll end up with another media cycle of Conservative backbenchers demanding the party ignore Tory-Lab switchers and focus on running to the right to recapture that 10%.

*sigh*, it begins.
https://twitter.com/Jane_Stevenson_/status/1758311037961707854

By, what, 77 votes? Good luck with that sort of transfer rate even if there isn’t the sort of polling on the smaller party’s voters’ preferences there is here.

And two can play at that game: there were 1450 Green votes.

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The Tories have now officially broken the 1992-1997 parliament’s post-1970 record for government losses in by-elections (ten) and there have now been twelve changes of hands overall, again the most since 1966-1970 (will of course be thirteen when Rochdale comes in in a couple of weeks time). Almost no chance of the 1966-1970 parliament’s post-war record (fifteen government seats lost and sixteen seats changing hands in total) being broken in the remaining lifetime of this parliament, but nonetheless a creditable effort.

However I think this Parliament is likely to set a record for the proportion of by-elections where the seat changes hands. The previous record seems to be exactly half, in 1992-97, and if Galloway (or anyone other than Ali, or even him if you don't count him as Labour) wins Rochdale this Parliament will be on 13/22.

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Dudley West, 1992 General Election: Con 34729, Lab 28940, Lib Dem 7446

Dudley West, Dec 1994 by-election: Lab 28400, Con 7706, Lib Dem 3154, ...

"Labour actually lost 540 votes. It's just Tory voters staying at home; they're not shifting to Labour."

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Well, here are my thoughts on each of the constituencies which have changed hands in by-elections this Parliament.

Hartlepool A lot has changed since that one. Based on current polling I'd expect a straightforward Labour regain, though I do feel that if the Tories recovered into hung parliament territory they might hold on here. There are no boundary changes.

Chesham & Amersham Boundary changes remove some relatively rural territory around Great Missenden, and add Gerrards Cross (upmarket and traditionally very Tory commuter town) and Hazlemere (a rather boring High Wycombe suburb). I suspect this harms the Lib Dems a little, mainly because it brings in people who didn't vote in the by-election, but on current polling I doubt the Tories get enough to win it back, given that it'll be very obvious who to vote for to beat them. There is a Buckinghamshire council by-election pending in Hazlemere which might be worth keeping an eye on.

North Shropshire Anecdotally Helen Morgan seems to be a popular MP, and if anything the minor boundary changes help her, as the areas removed are likely to be relatively strong for the Tories. On current polling I think she holds on, though this is not obviously a natural seat for the modern Lib Dems.

Wakefield The constituency is split in two. The parts of Wakefield proper in the seat go to Wakefield & Rothwell, which would have been low hanging fruit for Labour even without the by-election, while the rest goes to Ossett & Denby Dale, which is considerably more challenging but still winnable. Simon Lightwood has made the obvious choice, and given the split I doubt the by-election will add much to Labour's chances in O & DD, but in a landslide they're winning it anyway.

Tiverton & Honiton This is another case where the seat has been split. Some goes to Tiverton & Minehead, which I suspect will go Tory, but the bulk joins with parts of the current East Devon to form Honiton & Sidmouth, and Richard Foord is standing there. I think Honiton & Sidmouth is a bit unpredictable: there's no Lib Dem tradition in the added areas, which have been Tory since 1835, but Claire Wright's independent campaign suggests some latent non-Tory potential which the Lib Dems might be able to exploit. Still I think this is a relatively likely Tory win.

Selby & Ainsty Labour are helped by the boundary changes, which remove the "Ainsty" area and Tadcaster and add the usually Labour (at least locally) Kippax & Methley ward of Leeds, and if they're winning a majority I suspect Keir Mather holds on here.

Somerton & Frome This is another one with major boundary changes. Sarah Dyke is standing in the new Glastonbury & Somerton, which would look like a plausible Lib Dem gain even without the by-election, and I think she wins. The other seat, Frome & East Somerset, is complicated, but possibly the by-election will help Lib Dems claim that they're the challengers.

Rutherglen & Hamilton West The new Rutherglen would be one of the most obvious Labour targets in Scotland even without the by-election. Michael Shanks should hold on here.

Mid Bedfordshire The Labour winner Alistair Strathern lives in Shefford, which is being moved into the new Hitchin seat, which looked a more plausible Labour gain, and he is standing there; perhaps his incumbency will help Labour a little, though he's only the incumbent in a minority of the seat. The rump Mid Beds looks challenging for Labour even in a landslide, though the Tory performance in the by-election was so awful as to give pause for thought.

Tamworth Boundary changes are fairly minor. The Tories were on over 40% even in the by-election (the only one of their losses this is true of) and I suspect they will win this back.

Wellingborough The constituency gains Irthlingborough from Corby, and loses Wollaston and Bozeat to South Northamptonshire and rural parts of Earls Barton ward to Daventry, and is renamed as Wellingborough & Rushden. The changes are not major but help Labour, and while the swing needed from 2019 is still big you wonder how quickly the Conservatives will be able to recover from their atrocious performance in the by-election. At the moment I would guess that Gen Kitchen will hold on.

Kingswood This constituency is effectively abolished. The largest part, including Kingswood proper, goes to the revived Bristol North East; these parts are the most Labour parts of the seat, the Bristol wards included are also mostly Labour-inclined, and the new seat is estimated as having been comfortably Labour even in 2019. (Though presumably not in 1983 or 1987.)  Damien Egan had alreadby been selected as the Labour candidate there before Skidmore's resignation. The second largest part goes to North East Somerset & Hanham, where the Tory candidate will be Jacob Rees-Mogg, and I doubt the by-election will have much effect on Labour's chances of winning that. A smaller area goes to Filton & Bradley Stoke, and again I don't see the by-election changing much.

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They have, of course, suspended him.

The local Greens have endorsed Mark Coleman (the Just Stop Oil supporting Anglican priest standing as an Independent). Labour, of course, haven't endorsed anyone, though there are reports of individual Labour members supporting various candidates. I presume these two parties won't enforce their rules against campaigning against a nominated candidate, even if the actual wording of the rules (which I haven't checked in either case) suggests they should.

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Scott Benton, (Blackpool South) has lost his appeal against a 35 day Commons suspension, after a lobbying/corruption sting.

Benton only had a 3,690 majority over Labour, so there’s little suspense about what happens next.

Assuming he doesn’t resign, it takes two weeks to organise the recall petition and then it’s open for six more, so the seat won’t actually be vacant until mid April at the earliest and it’s already too late for a 2 May by-election. They might even try to leave it vacant until an autumn General Election, though I think that would go down badly.

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68375450

But it was clear from speaking to voters in the rain-lashed town centre on Tuesday evening that some Labour supporters were either not aware of him being dropped by the party or did not care.

Truly bizarre. Not so much the 'don't care' part but the 'not aware' part. The dropping of Ali was the main national news headline for a couple of days. Surely anyone who is engaged enough to be voting in a by-election (or even aware that there is a by-election on) would also at least be glancing at national news headlines, especially when your town is a major subject in them. Were there people voting in the Bermondsey by-election of 1983 with the presumption that Peter Tatchell was a heterosexual Labour moderate?

In special elections over here, many voters who are engaged enough to turn out are still only interested in choosing between Candidate (D) or Candidate (R).  They often won't even know their preferred candidate's name.  Is it not the same way over there too, to some extent?

Undoubtably, but less so in by-elections than in General Elections. There are a number of cases of candidates losing by-elections their party really should have won, which is rare in General Elections.

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What do we think the chances are of the eventual winner in Rochdale getting less than 30% of the vote?

I think it's quite possible, at least if the turnout isn't absurdly low (if it is I suspect Galloway gets over 30%), but the caveat is that I don't think those of us outside Rochdale have much idea of what's really going on.

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Scott Benton's suspension has been approved by the House. So, unless he resigns, a recall petition will open in Blackpool South in two weeks' time, with the result likely to be announced on Tuesday 23 April.

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Andrew Teale's preview of the first Leap Day by-election since 1944.

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It seems to me that for Galloway not to win either (a) the Muslim vote has to be rather weaker for him than it has been in his last two by-election outings or (b) the part of the Labour vote which doesn't go Galloway has to stick with Ali to a fairly large extent. (Or a bit of both, of course.) There's also (c) the anti-Galloway vote gets behind a single non-Ali candidate, but I haven't got the impression that that's happening.

(b) seems a bit unlikely to me. Of course some will stick with him, because they don't know or they don't care or they simply don't want Galloway to win. But I think a significant chunk of people who would otherwise have voted Labour will either stay at home or vote for someone else. (Who? Probably a mix: some Lib Dem, some Reform UK, some one of the Independents, maybe the odd one for the Loony. Even the Tory might pick up a few.)

I think (a) is hard to judge from the outside, but if I have to guess I'd say Galloway wins. If (a) does happen I assume Ali wins. In either scenario the winning vote share could be unusually low.

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I suspect no-one really has much idea what's going on. Even on turnout election day rumours tend to be rubbish.

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But in both those byelections he not just won quite a lot of white "protest" votes but actually went out and campaigned for them - not sure if that has been happening so much here.

https://twitter.com/bobfrombrockley/status/1763301794250199086

He even has "MAKE ROCHDALE GREAT AGAIN".

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LBC reporter:

https://twitter.com/HenryRiley1/status/1763328899583537530

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Riley (LBC) saying that the independent David Tully has done well. Probably means not much more than a saved deposit.

That's what I'd expected when I first saw that, but there are some rumours that he might be challenging Ali for second.

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Henry Riley is now reporting that Tully's team say he has come a "comfortable second".

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Turnout 39.7%. Not bad in the circumstances.

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And now Henry Riley has a suggestion that the Lib Dems have come third!

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Reform UK really not happy and making various allegations.

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Rochdale

Galloway (Workers Party) 12335 (39.7%, new)
Tully 6638 (21.3%, new)
Ellison (Con) 3731 (12.0%, -19.2%)
Ali (Lab*) 2402 (7.7%, -43.9%)
Donaldson (Lib Dem) 2164 (7.0%, -0.0%)
Danczuk (Reform) 1968 (6.3%, -1.8%)
W Howarth 523 (1.7%, new)
Coleman 455 (1.5%, new)
Otten (Green*) 436 1.4%, -0.7%)
M Howarth 246 (0.8%, new)
Subortna (OMRLP) 209 (0.7%, new)
         
Majority 5697
Workers Party gain from Lab   

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I wonder how many of Ali's votes were cast after he was drop-kicked? I suspect not many. It does seem to settle the question of what happens when a candidate is disendorsed in a by-election as opposed to a GE.

There were conflicting reports about when postal votes were actually sent out, but some said that they weren't until 15 February, which was after the disendorsements. I assume he picked up some votes from people who didn't know what had happened or thought he'd been hard done by, and may have got some "stop Galloway" votes; I don't know how obvious it was on the ground that the "stop Galloway" vote was Tully, but even if it was quite obvious some people won't have noticed.

One thing that Labour can take some solace in is that the other major parties, including Reform UK, completely failed to take advantage of their misfortune. I don't think the Lib Dems or Tories really tried, and their results reflect that (as well as the national problems in the Tories' case) but I suspect Reform UK regret their choice of candidate.

Given that Galloway got nearly 40% on a respectable turnout by by-election standards, I think the question has to be asked whether he would have won even without the disendorsements. I'm going for possibly, but I suspect he got a decent number of votes which would otherwise have gone Labour, and surely some Labour voters did stay at home; maybe he'd have been in the low to mid 30s, so beatable but not clear-cut?

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Can Galloway hold the seat in the general election?

His recent track record in General Elections, including Bradford West after his by-election win there, is unimpressive.