UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[YL]

Under the current conditions - what’s the thinking on a hypothetical Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election, in the event that Johnson is forced out of No.10, and decides that the lecturing circuit is preferable to being hauled in front of the Privileges Committee this autumn?

I know that several polling models have put it as a possible Labour pick-up, but I’m intrigued to hear what you guys think the likelihood of a gain is, and what the margin would look like.

I feel like it’s definitely possible, but have to imagine that CCHQ would throw money at the race, rather than face the ignominy of losing a PM’s seat. Sure these things happen (look at Thatcher’s seat in 1997, Brown’s in 2015, and Blair’s in 2019), but losing it in a high-profile by-election would do some serious damage to electoral expectations. 

Today a Tory-held seat with that margin would be a goner in a by-election.  But any Uxbridge & South Ruislip by-election will presumably be held in the new PM's honeymoon period, so I suspect they'd have a chance of holding it.

The recent trends there don't suggest Johnson has much of a personal vote in his constituency, BTW.

[YL]

Mid Bedfordshire had a similar result last time to North Shropshire and Tiverton & Honiton, but I think it's a rather different sort of constituency, with more outer commuter belt characteristics, though there are obviously non-commuter aspects too.  The last two intermediate stations, Harlington and Flitwick, on the Thameslink rail service to Bedford are both in the constituency.

Its 2011 census profile reflects that: it's 49th out of 650 on "Managers, directors and senior officials", for example, and generally looks more middle class and educated than N Shrops or T & H.  However, and at the risk of mentioning coloured walls, it's not really like Chesham & Amersham either, and it's estimated as having voted narrowly Leave.  And nearly 60% of its voters at the last election voted Tory in spite of the name next to that box being "Nadine Dorries".

[YL]

Does the speculation that Boris is using this by-election to move seats have any merit? It would be hard for the party to let him do that and then for him to win a by-election. Problem is if he wants to come back as PM he needs to have a safer seat than Uxbridge, coming back in this term would be too big of an ask. He always would have been a better Leader of the Opposition than Prime Minister anyway. In any case, the easier and more comfortable career path for him is to be another media commentator sniping on the sidelines.

It's a crazy idea.  If he wants to move seat to somewhere safer then he can surely find somewhere at the General Election, whereas if he does it this way he creates another difficult by-election in his current seat and, safe as Mid Beds may be in normal circumstances, I don't think it's that safe in an unnecessary by-election; Johnson standing down from Uxbridge and losing a Mid Beds by-election to the Lib Dems while Labour take his old seat would be hilarious.

[YL]

There's also talk that Nigel Adams, MP for Selby & Ainsty, will get a peerage, causing another by-election.

Selby & Ainsty is the successor to the Selby constituency which was a Labour gain in 1997, held in 2001 and narrowly in 2005.  There's some mining history around Selby, in the late developed (1970s or so) Selby Coalfield.  That might suggest a Labour target, but the Selby constituency which Labour won was based on Selby district as it existed before the expansion of the City of York in the 1990s, so it included a considerable area of York suburbs and fringe, including the York University campus at Heslington.

In the most recently implemented review the expanded York got a second constituency, the "doughnut" York Outer, and that took on that territory from Selby.  Selby had to take on other areas to replace it, and given the awkward shape of the North Yorkshire council area the only real option was to take on areas in the south-east of Harrogate district including the Civil War battlefield of Marston Moor, creating a constituency whose shape recalls some strange bird.  "Ainsty" was added to the name, referring to a historic territory associated with the city of York and containing some of the extension to the constituency (but also some areas already in it, and also quite a chunk of York Outer).  This area has usually been very Tory, and so the new constituency was already notionally Tory in 2005, and it must be doubtful whether Labour would ever have won it on the current boundaries.

As a result of those changes the seat now looks essentially out of reach for Labour in a General Election context, and the swing needed in a by-election would be bigger than the one they achieved in Wakefield.  I think the Labour history would make it hard for the Lib Dems to establish themselves as challengers.  So I think the Tories must be favourites unless they're in complete meltdown when the by-election happens, but Labour should be at least able to give them a challenge.

Results of the North Yorkshire 2022 election in the Selby area plus the two wards from Harrogate which best approximate the extension to the constituency:

Con 11021 (42%) 7 seats
Lab 8415 (32%) 5 seats
Green 3391 (13%) 1 seat
Yorkshire Party 158 (1%)
various Independents 3371 (13%) 3 seats

(There were no Lib Dem candidates at all.  There were also no Labour candidates in the Harrogate wards, one of which was actually won by the Greens.)

[YL]

It's one of the most socially polarised constituencies in the country: the largest town is the infamous 'failed' New Town of Skelmersdale which is extremely working class in a way that few places are these days and is very Labour, and this is balanced against a large swathe of prosperous, Conservative countryside. It also includes the socially mixed and politically marginal towns of Ormskirk and Burscough and a few former mining villages near Skelmersdale that are now commuter settlements. Local politics is odd: there is an active localist party strong in and around Ormskirk and Labour can randomly win usually solidly Conservative rural wards with candidates with strong personal appeals (which does not translate into support for other Labour candidates) - both of these factors seem to reflect poor local Conservative organisation. Former MPs include Harold Wilson (1945-50: before Skelmersdale New Town but back when the constituency extended into Liverpool) and... er... Robert Kilroy-Silk (1974-83).

There is another fact that may be of relevance. Like most of Lancashire north of the great urban and industrial belt of South Lancs, this is a fracking constituency...

It's probably also relevant to the Labour strength that it is one of the most "Scouse" constituencies outside the official boundaries of Merseyside.

[YL]

Already the talk of parachutes being unfurled are spreading.

Yet to see the usual ‘will David Miliband’ return- tbf the new version of this is ‘will Andy Burnham’ run.

It could easily be his best chance but would break his pledge iirc.

Wouldn't he have to stand down as Mayor, as you can't be an MP and have the Police and Crime Commissioner powers at the same time, and the Greater Manchester Mayor has those?  (Same reason as Tracy Brabin had to stand down from Batley & Spen when she became West Yorks Mayor.)

[YL]

One of those seats which looks safe Labour if you just look at the last two elections but not at all if you look before that.  Once held by TV personality Gyles Brandreth for the Tories.

[YL]

Chester is a fairly small but historically important city, known for the black and white half timbered buildings in the city centre.  For the most part it's reasonably prosperous as British cities go, though certainly not universally so, and its constituency was Tory for most of the 20th century, falling to Labour in 1997; the Tories regained it in 2010, but Labour narrowly took it in 2015, followed by a big swing in their favour in 2017 and a comfortable hold in 2019.  Labour also hold most of the Cheshire West & Chester wards within the built up area, though there are also some more rural areas in the constituency which have Tory councillors.  It's very close to the Welsh border, to the extent that some of its suburbs (and most of its football club's ground) are actually in Wales, and in the Alyn & Deeside constituency.  It has a university which originated as an offshoot of Liverpool University, and the city is at the outer edge of the cultural influence of Liverpool; it's the terminus of one of Merseyrail's lines...

... as is Ormskirk in the West Lancashire constituency, which also has a pending by-election.  (I guess the two may end up being on the same day, though West Lancs isn't officially vacant until Rosie Cooper starts her new job at the beginning of November).  So the two have some similarlities in both having universities whose university status is recent but whose history goes back further (Edge Hill in West Lancs' case) and having some influence from Liverpool.

Here are some rankings (out of 650) for the two constituencies (except for deprivation, from the now rather out of date 2011 census):

	West Lancs	C of Chester
Managers, directors and senior officials	259	219
Professional	257	108
Associate professional and technical	473	196
Administrative and secretarial	326	523
Skilled trades	414	552
Caring, leisure and other service	163	530
Sales and customer service	437	149
Process plant and machine operatives	211	483
Elementary occupations	177	297
No qualifications	313	497
Level 4 qualifications	337	106
Full time students	139	113
Deprivation	337	381

[YL]

Under current circumstance can the by-election be assumed to be a safe labour hold or is there a chance something weird will happen ?

I think both City of Chester and West Lancashire ought to be safe Labour holds unless something dramatic changes.  Both were won reasonably comfortably in 2019, and the Tory vote fell in both, but neither is the sort of seat where the Tories are obviously so out of contention that a Lib Dem or Green challenge might get going, though Chester at least has demographics which might be susceptible.

[YL]

Writ was moved for Chester earlier this week- so likely an early December election.

Will be interesting whether Labour go for the old tried and tested local Cllr or whether they try and get someone more high profile in- the seat is at risk of getting carved up though in the review.

The council have already said it'll be Thursday 1 December.  The notice of election will be issued tomorrow and nominations will close Friday next week, 4 November.

Three possible names for the Labour nomination according to Michael Crick:
https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1584113524170960897

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1584482255111483392

[YL]

Brothers did not make the shortlist, which comprises just two people - Dixon and Adam Harrison, who is a Camden councillor (though one assumes they do have some sort of "local" connection)

Yes, he was born and grew up there.  My impression is that it will probably be Dixon, though.

The Tories have selected Liz Wardlaw, who is a councillor for Odd Rode ward on Cheshire East council, which is in the Congleton constituency.

[YL]

The Lib Dems have selected Rob Heard, who is a languages teacher who lives in Chester (but, reading between the lines, I think he teaches in St Helen's).  Can they maintain their impressive record this parliament of winning every by-election where they save their deposit?

[YL]

Nine candidates for City of Chester

Jeanie Barton (Reform UK)
Paul Bowers (Green)
Samantha Dixon (Lab)
Cain Griffiths (UKIP)
Rob Herd (Lib Dem)
Richard Hewison (Rejoin EU)
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Chris Quartermaine (Freedom Alliance)
Liz Wardlaw (Con)

No hard left, no Independents.

[YL]

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1590300668761296896
Labour won 60% of the vote, and a 13,000 vote majority in 2019, so likely to be an easy hold.

Interestingly the Labour majority and share of the vote in 2019 were both higher than in 1997.  Indeed one of the predecessor seats, Davyhulme, was held by Winston Churchill's grandson, also called Winston Churchill, for the Tories until 1997.

It contains Old Trafford cricket ground, and also another sporting venue nearby.

[YL]

Kate Green is now Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, so Stretford & Urmston is officially vacant and the by-election can be on 15 December as suggested.

We could face a rather high number of by elections this term- especially considering how few are from ill health or death.

About 4 or 5 per year seems to be typical going back some time, though it was less in the Noughties (only 6 in the 2001 Parliament), but yes the proportion of them which are due to deaths is lower than in the past.  The rate was noticeably higher before 1979, but a lot were caused by deaths, and some by succeeding to a hereditary peerage, which of course can't cause a by-election any more.

The 1983 Parliament had 31 by-elections, but 15 of those were caused by the mass Unionist resignation in protest at the Anglo-Irish Agreement.  If I've counted correctly from the list on Wikipedia, the 1959 Parliament had 62!  (Two of them in Bristol South East, for well-known reasons.)

[YL]

Kate Green is now Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, so Stretford & Urmston is officially vacant and the by-election can be on 15 December as suggested.

And indeed it will be.  Deadline for nominations is 4pm on Tuesday 22nd.

A contender for the most boring by-election of this Parliament?

[YL]

Nine candidates for Stretford & Urmston:

Emily Carter-Kandola (Con)
Anna Fryer (Lib Dem)
Hazel Gibb (Independent)
Christina Glancy (Freedom Alliance)
Dan Jerrome (Green)
Jim Newell (Rejoin EU)
Paul Swansborough (Reform UK)
Andrew Western (Lab)
Julien Yvon (SDP)

[YL]

Think Chester might be the least covered Labour by election in recent years… no beef over the selection, no handwringing about a certain demographic, no worries about a protest vote and all just very calm.

I think Stretford & Urmston might be even quieter.  There wasn't even a Labour selection there, the candidate having been selected some months ago.

I did wonder whether either might be a chance for the Green Party to put in a respectable challenge in a parliamentary by-election, but I haven't seen any evidence yet.

[YL]

What’s the lowest the Tories could realistically come?

3rd?

Even for that someone else would have to do quite well.

In other news, West Lancashire is finally vacant: Rosie Cooper was appointed Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds today.  So the by-election will presumably be some time in January.

[YL]

Lib Dems got under 7% votes last time around - swing would have to be *wild* to get the Tories (38%) into 3rd place. That being said, we’re talking Lib Dems in a by-election environment, so based on their track record in this Parliament I guess its implausible, rather than impossible.

Greens and ReformUK posted tiny numbers, so unless there’s a localist candidate, I can’t see anyone else who’d be challenging for third place.

Yes, I can see the Tories falling to the low to mid 20s just based on national polling, but from what little I've seen I don't think that would be enough to fall to third.

Labour seem very confident.  Ben Walker, of Britain Elects and the New Statesman, wrote an article for the latter about how well Labour are going to do; note that he is a prospective Labour candidate for a council ward in central Chester, so I doubt he'd be doing that if they didn't think they were going to romp it.

[YL]

So, let's say Reform UK are really on 9% as in the most recent YouGov poll.  How would we expect them to do in Chester?

It's not an obviously favourable constituency for them: fairly educated and professional and clearly Remain voting.  Even so, if they're doing that well nationally oughtn't they to be saving their deposit?

[YL]

Yes, I’m not particularly surprised Reform UK didn’t do better but it increases my scepticism about their higher polling numbers.  The same goes for the Greens, and I’d think it’s a better constituency for them than for Reform UK.

A pretty good result for Labour given the cause of the by-election.  And Lub Dems finally save their deposit in a by-election this Parliament which they don’t win.

[YL]

Of course Liverpool and its surroundings itself also have a lot of Welsh influence (including some of my family).

[YL]

Here's Andrew Teale's preview.

As with Chester, I don't think it's the best sort of seat for Reform UK -- it might have been better when the Urmston/Davyhulme area was more as it used to be when Winston Churchill (grandson) represented it -- but it's hardly Bristol West or Brighton Pavilion either, and if they're really polling high single figures nationally I think they ought to be saving their deposit.  I'm sceptical, though.

How the area has changed is perhaps the most interesting thing about this by-election.  The 1950-1983 Stretford seat, which usually voted Conservative and which was held by Churchill for its last 13 years, really had quite similar boundaries.  It was split between separate Stretford (also including bits of Manchester proper, and consistently Labour) and Davyhulme (which Churchill moved to and represented throughout its existence) constituencies in 1983, and re-united on more or less its present boundaries in 1997, and the Tories haven't got a look in since the re-unification.  The post-1997 version is slightly better for Labour (see what Andrew says about Partington) but by nowhere near enough to explain the changes.

[YL]

Labour and Greens will be moderately pleased.

Apart from that, not a lot to say - save that the low turnout may partly be explained by a significant number of postal votes not being delivered in time due to strikes. That didn't matter on this occasion, but you do have to wonder how things might play out if a marginal contest was affected in this way.

The weather may have been a factor as well.  I don't know what conditions are like in Stretford but if it's anything like where I am some people will not have wanted to risk falling on the ice on the way to the polling station.

As you presumably know there was a council by-election in Wigan yesterday with a turnout of 5.3%; Britain Elects suggests this may be a record low.