European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[YL]

Count 16

Kelly (FG) elected
Wallace (I4C) 101,725
O'Sullivan (Green) 93,123
Kelleher (FF) 92,885
Ní Riada (SF) 91,839
Clune (FG) 89,743
Byrne (FF) 80,623 eliminated

... which means I'm changing my guess to O'Sullivan getting an immediate seat and Clune getting the Brexit-conditional one.

Are they counting using a quota based on 4 because they didn't anticipate the UK still being in, and it was too hard to change it?

Order of election does not necessarily match who would be elected if they used a larger quota to begin with.

It's a 4 seater without Brexit and a 5 seater with it.  They're using a quota based on 5, and declaring that the last person elected doesn't get to take their seat yet.  It is true that the result would potentially be different if they used a quota based on 4.

Count 18 gave

Kelly (FG) elected
Kelleher (FF) elected
Wallace (I4C) 112,441
Clune (FG) 101,012
O'Sullivan (Green) 98,706
Ní Riada (SF) 98,379

In a normal 5 seat STV election that would be it: Wallace, Clune and O'Sullivan would be declared elected.  But because of this business about the last seat it isn't a normal STV election, and they will now follow what Dublin did and transfer Ní Riada's votes to see what the finishing order is.  (There's also a 17 vote Kelly surplus, but it's unlikely to be that close.)  There is some controversy around this, so expect FG to kick up a fuss if O'Sullivan overtakes Clune on Ní Riada's transfers.

Sinn Féin have asked for a recount, so it'll be some time until we actually know the final result.

It'd probably be worse for Clune if the count had been based on a 4 seat quota: Kelly wouldn't have been declared elected when he was, so would have accumulated more votes, which presumably are disproportionately the ones which went to his running mate.

[YL]

Count 16

Kelly (FG) elected
Wallace (I4C) 101,725
O'Sullivan (Green) 93,123
Kelleher (FF) 92,885
Ní Riada (SF) 91,839
Clune (FG) 89,743
Byrne (FF) 80,623 eliminated

... which means I'm changing my guess to O'Sullivan getting an immediate seat and Clune getting the Brexit-conditional one.

Are they counting using a quota based on 4 because they didn't anticipate the UK still being in, and it was too hard to change it?

Order of election does not necessarily match who would be elected if they used a larger quota to begin with.

It's a 4 seater without Brexit and a 5 seater with it.  They're using a quota based on 5, and declaring that the last person elected doesn't get to take their seat yet.  It is true that the result would potentially be different if they used a quota based on 4.

Count 18 gave

Kelly (FG) elected
Kelleher (FF) elected
Wallace (I4C) 112,441
Clune (FG) 101,012
O'Sullivan (Green) 98,706
Ní Riada (SF) 98,379

In a normal 5 seat STV election that would be it: Wallace, Clune and O'Sullivan would be declared elected.  But because of this business about the last seat it isn't a normal STV election, and they will now follow what Dublin did and transfer Ní Riada's votes to see what the finishing order is.  (There's also a 17 vote Kelly surplus, but it's unlikely to be that close.)  There is some controversy around this, so expect FG to kick up a fuss if O'Sullivan overtakes Clune on Ní Riada's transfers.

Sinn Féin have asked for a recount, so it'll be some time until we actually know the final result.

It'd probably be worse for Clune if the count had been based on a 4 seat quota: Kelly wouldn't have been declared elected when he was, so would have accumulated more votes, which presumably are disproportionately the ones which went to his running mate.

There is going to be a full recount.  Apparently this could take "up to a month".

https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/2019/0530/1052522-ireland-south/

[YL]

Count 16

Kelly (FG) elected
Wallace (I4C) 101,725
O'Sullivan (Green) 93,123
Kelleher (FF) 92,885
Ní Riada (SF) 91,839
Clune (FG) 89,743
Byrne (FF) 80,623 eliminated

... which means I'm changing my guess to O'Sullivan getting an immediate seat and Clune getting the Brexit-conditional one.

Are they counting using a quota based on 4 because they didn't anticipate the UK still being in, and it was too hard to change it?

Order of election does not necessarily match who would be elected if they used a larger quota to begin with.

It's a 4 seater without Brexit and a 5 seater with it.  They're using a quota based on 5, and declaring that the last person elected doesn't get to take their seat yet.  It is true that the result would potentially be different if they used a quota based on 4.

Count 18 gave

Kelly (FG) elected
Kelleher (FF) elected
Wallace (I4C) 112,441
Clune (FG) 101,012
O'Sullivan (Green) 98,706
Ní Riada (SF) 98,379

In a normal 5 seat STV election that would be it: Wallace, Clune and O'Sullivan would be declared elected.  But because of this business about the last seat it isn't a normal STV election, and they will now follow what Dublin did and transfer Ní Riada's votes to see what the finishing order is.  (There's also a 17 vote Kelly surplus, but it's unlikely to be that close.)  There is some controversy around this, so expect FG to kick up a fuss if O'Sullivan overtakes Clune on Ní Riada's transfers.

Sinn Féin have asked for a recount, so it'll be some time until we actually know the final result.

It'd probably be worse for Clune if the count had been based on a 4 seat quota: Kelly wouldn't have been declared elected when he was, so would have accumulated more votes, which presumably are disproportionately the ones which went to his running mate.

There is going to be a full recount.  Apparently this could take "up to a month".

https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/2019/0530/1052522-ireland-south/

It ended up quicker than that, and has now been declared.  O'Sullivan did indeed overtake Clune, so got the immediate seat and Clune the Brexit-conditional one.

So the overall Ireland results are, for the immediate seats
FG 4 (Dublin, 2 in MNW, South)
Green 2 (Dublin, South)
Ind4Change 2 (Dublin, South)
FF 1 (South)
SF 1 (MNW)
Ind (Flanagan) 1 (MNW)

The Brexit-conditional seats make it
FG 5
Green 2
Ind4Change 2
FF 2
SF 1
Ind (Flanagan) 1