Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[YL]

Apparently they are having a recheck in Kerry before the first count is announced: "at least another hour".

[YL]

Carlow-Kilkenny, 5 seater, quota 11669, count 8:

McGuinness (FF) 11903 and elected
Funchion (SF) 10970
Aylward (FF) 10030
O'Connor (FF) 9049
Phelan (FG) 8450
Deering (FG) 6940
Fitzgerald (FG) 5721
Phelan (Lab) 5596 and out

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Dublin Central count 6, 3 seater, quota 5,922

McDonald (SF) elected
Donohoe (FG) 3,945
Gannon (SD) 2,832
Fitzpatrick (FF) 2,655
Burke (Ind) 2,503
O'Sullivan (Ind) 2,377
Costello (Lab) 2,281
Perry (Ind) 1,492 to be eliminated

Count 7

Donohoe 3480
Gannon 3117
Burke 2822
Fitzpatrick 2810
O'Sullivan 2792
Costello 2345 and out

Counts 8 and 9 (McDonald's surplus)

Donohoe 4481
Gannon 3549
O'Sullivan 3214
Burke 3083
Fitzpatrick 2984 and out

Count 10, not great for the SDs:

Donohoe 5127
Gannon 3931
O'Sullivan 3923
Burke 3658 and out

[YL]

Carlow-Kilkenny, 5 seater, quota 11669, count 8:

McGuinness (FF) 11903 and elected
Funchion (SF) 10970
Aylward (FF) 10030
O'Connor (FF) 9049
Phelan (FG) 8450
Deering (FG) 6940
Fitzgerald (FG) 5721
Phelan (Lab) 5596 and out

Count 9

Funchion (SF) 11516
Aylward (FF) 10634
Phelan (FG) 10222
O'Connor (FF) 9371
Deering (FG) 7675
Fitzgerald (FG) 6588 and out

I assume Fitzgerald's transfers will get Deering ahead of O'Connor for 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF.

[YL]

Dublin Mid West, count 7, 4 seater, quota 8,621

Ó Brion (SF) elected
Fitzgerald (FG) elected
Curran (FF) 7,218
Kenny (AAA-PBP) 5,474
McNally (SD) 2,867
Gogarty (IA) 2,741
Keating (FG) 2,653
Tuffy (Lab) 2,355
Timmons (Ind) 1,318
Hennessy (WP) 613
Kivlehan (Green) 443
last two to be eliminated

Count 8 has been completed with no change in the order.  Timmons next to go.

Count 9, 2 seats left

Curran 7383
Kenny 6331
McNally 3235
Gogarty 3164
Keating 2725
Tuffy 2515 and out

Count 10, Keating overtook Gogarty

Curran 7685
Kenny 6542
McNally 3679
Keating 3640
Gogarty 3505 and out

Hard to see it not being Curran and Kenny getting the last two seats

Count 11

Curran 8287
Kenny 7498
McNally 4460
Keating 4179 and out

Fairly even spread of transfers from Gogarty, but Kenny got the most so the result is even less in doubt.

[YL]

Is there still a chance of Renua winning a seat in Offaly (for some reason)? Barry Cowen of FF has won the first seat, and Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy of FG winning the second looks very likely, but then there's less than 400 votes between three candidates tied for the third seat: Carol Nolan of SF, the second FF candidate (Eddie Fitzpatrick), and John Leahy of Renua. It'll be decided by the preferences of independent Joe Hannigan, so...what kind of voters does Hannigan have? And why was Renua so successful specifically here? It doesn't seem like Offaly was seen as a likely seat for them.

Leahy has now been eliminated on count 5:

Cowen (FF) elected
Corcoran-Kennedy (FG) 9484
Nolan (SF) 7195
Fitzpatrick (FF) 7141
Leahy (Renua) 6588 and out

I assume Fitzpatrick is favoured over Nolan at this point.

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Dublin South West, 5 seater, quota 11212, count 10

Lahart (FF) 10565
Murphy (AAA-PBP) 10366
Crowe (SF) 9502
Brophy (FG) 8213
Dermody (FG) 7337
Zappone (Ind) 5797
Kearns (Lab) 3933
Fitzpatrick (Ind) 3799
Fay (AAA-PBP) 3725
McMahon (Renua) 3548 to be eliminated

[YL]

Guess who has just been elected on the first count in Kerry 7000 votes over quota?

M. Healy-Rae (Ind) 20378
D. Healy-Rae (Ind) 9991
Griffin (FG) 9674
Ferris (SF) 9458
Brassil (FF) 8156
Deenihan (FG) 6489
Spring (Lab) 4813
Moriarty (FF) 4348
others below 1500

Quota 13,213, 5 seats

[YL]

Donegal, count 7, 5 seater, quota 12218

McConalogue (FF) elected
P. Doherty (SF) 11190
The Cope Gallagher (FF) 11160
McHugh (FG) 11016
Pringle (Ind) 7522
MacLochlainn (SF) 6032
Jackson (Ind) 4524
Shiels (Ind) 4463
G. Doherty (SF) 4456 and out

With that elimination being by 7 votes, there's going to be a recount.  Whatever happens, I'd think the remaining transfers are going to have to go better than expected for SF for them to get MacLochlainn ahead of Pringle.  SF might regret running three candidates.

[YL]

In Dublin South-Central, 1 FG, 1 SF, and 1 ind (Joan Collins, formerly of the PBP) have all been elected. At the last count, with two candidates (Catherine Ardagh of Fianna Fail and Brid Smith of PBP) remaining, the difference between them is just 5 votes -- 7841-7836. This one may see some repeated recounting.

Recounting that must be hell. STV is the wet dream of first-year political science students all around the world, but this election has once again convinced me that it is, in reality, a highly undesirable system, for numerous reasons.

Speaking of recounting that, the RTE website now has Smith ahead of Ardagh by 35 votes, though there is still no checkmark by either woman.

Re Dublin South Central, this morning the RTE website says:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[YL]

Unsurprisingly enough, Danny Healy-Rae has been elected on the second count in Kerry on his brother's transfers.

[YL]

Dublin Bay South, fifth count:

4 seats
Murphy (FG) 6873
Ryan (Grn) 6605
O'Connell (FG) 5773
Humphreys (Lab) 4992
O'Callaghan (FF) 4949
Andrews (SF) 4888
Creighton (Renua) 4820 and out
Count adjourned until 10am.

Count 6

Murphy 7860
Ryan 7560
O'Connell 6324
O'Callaghan 5969
Humphreys 5391
Andrews 5197 and out

[YL]

Dublin Bay South, fifth count:

4 seats
Murphy (FG) 6873
Ryan (Grn) 6605
O'Connell (FG) 5773
Humphreys (Lab) 4992
O'Callaghan (FF) 4949
Andrews (SF) 4888
Creighton (Renua) 4820 and out
Count adjourned until 10am.

Count 6

Murphy 7860
Ryan 7560
O'Connell 6324
O'Callaghan 5969
Humphreys 5391
Andrews 5197 and out

Count 7

Ryan (Green) 8788 and elected
Murphy (FG) 8023 and elected
O'Callaghan (FF) 6678
O'Connell (FG) 6446
Humphreys (Lab) 5973

Ryan's surplus was then distributed, taking Humphreys up to 6221, still short of the other two, and too far short for Murphy's surplus to help, so O'Callaghan and O'Connell are elected as well.

Final result 2 FG, 1 Green, 1 FF, 0 Renua

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Kerry, 5 seater, quota 13213, count 10.

M. Healy-Rae (Ind) elected
D. Healy-Rae (Ind) elected
Griffin (FG) 12545
Ferris (SF) 12184
Brassil (FF) 11955
Deenihan (FG) 7849
Spring (Lab) 6139 and out

This looks pretty hopeless for Deenihan.  So presumably 2 H-R, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF.

[YL]

Longford-Westmeath, 4 seater, quota 11056, count 11

Troy (FF) elected
Moran (Ind Alliance) 9244
Burke (FG) 7251
Hogan (SF) 6110
Penrose (Lab) 6041
Bannon (FG) 5436
Gerety-Quinn (FF) 4764
Morgan (Ind Alliance) 4339 and out

Does Penrose have a chance here?

[YL]

Dublin Bay North, 5 seater, quota 12271, count 10

Bruton (FG) elected
Haughey (FF) 9311
Ó Ríordáin (Lab) 7299
McGrath (Ind Alliance) 6828
Lyons (AAA-PBP) 6682
Broughan (Ind) 6583
Power (Ind) 6237
Mitchell (SF) 5573
O'Callaghan (SD) 4587
Heney (FF) 3943
MacDonncha (SF) 3850 and out

This seems hard to call.  Mitchell could well go from eighth to third on the next count.

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Sligo-Leitrim, 4 seater, quota 12468, count 13

Kenny (SF) 14066 and elected
MacSharry (FF) 13227 and elected
McLoughlin (FG) 10529
Reynolds (FG) 10177
Scanlon (FF) 9554

The top two both have surpluses to transfer, which might well give Scanlon the advantage.

[YL]

Longford-Westmeath, 4 seater, quota 11056, count 11

Troy (FF) elected
Moran (Ind Alliance) 9244
Burke (FG) 7251
Hogan (SF) 6110
Penrose (Lab) 6041
Bannon (FG) 5436
Gerety-Quinn (FF) 4764
Morgan (Ind Alliance) 4339 and out

Does Penrose have a chance here?

Count 12

Moran 10108
Burke 7633
Hogan 6643
Penrose 6360
Bannon 5955
Gerety-Quinn 5917 and out

Another close elimination, so possibly another recount.

[YL]

Sligo-Leitrim, 4 seater, quota 12468, count 13

Kenny (SF) 14066 and elected
MacSharry (FF) 13227 and elected
McLoughlin (FG) 10529
Reynolds (FG) 10177
Scanlon (FF) 9554

The top two both have surpluses to transfer, which might well give Scanlon the advantage.

Kenny's surplus has transferred, and Scanlon is now 131 behind, with MacSharry's surplus (759) still to transfer.  MacSharry's surplus came from the elimination of another FF candidate.

[YL]

Early morning dispatch from your Longford correspondent:

In a surprise twist, the transfers of Kevin "Boxer" Moran's surplus of 71 votes have turned a 19-vote lead for James "Bonkers" Bannon of FG into a two-vote lead for Willie Penrose of Labour.

Another full recount - requested by FG this time rather than Labour - has been ordered to begin at 10.30 tomorrow morning.

The figures on
http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/constituencies/longford-westmeath/
are still stuck on count 12, before the elimination of Gerety-Quinn.

How far are Penrose and Bannon behind Hogan?

[YL]

Early morning dispatch from your Longford correspondent:

In a surprise twist, the transfers of Kevin "Boxer" Moran's surplus of 71 votes have turned a 19-vote lead for James "Bonkers" Bannon of FG into a two-vote lead for Willie Penrose of Labour.

Another full recount - requested by FG this time rather than Labour - has been ordered to begin at 10.30 tomorrow morning.

How the heck did Bannon jump ahead of Penrose from 400 votes down (409 to be precise) on an FF exclusion anyway?

A possible answer just occurred to me.  Geographic-based voting.  Are Gerrity-Quinn and Bannon both from Longford and Penrose from Westmeath?  Still, a bit surprising to me that Gerrity-Quinn's exclusion helped Bannon so much.

Your hypothesis is correct - however it's surprising to Mr Bannon that they didn't help him enough:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/longford-westmeath-full-recount-agreed-after-request-by-fine-gael-1.2549677

I think I'm beginning to understand why Longford voters transferred to Westmeath candidates rather than to him.

[YL]

More from Longford-Westmeath:
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fg-s-james-bannon-very-hurt-by-negative-online-comments-1.2558309