Ireland by-elections, 2014

[YL]

Who of the leading two is less transfer-repellent?

[YL]

On count 2 (after the elimination of the two Independents with double figure votes) King gained 16 votes and Murphy 39.

... and on count 3, after the elimination of the Green, King gained 36 and Murphy 43.  Top two now King (SF) 7340, Murphy (AAA) 6622.

... and on count 4, after the elimination of the People Before Profit candidate, King gained 108 and Murphy 268.  Top two now King (SF) 7448, Murphy (AAA) 6890.

... and on count 5, after the elimination of Burke (Ind), King gained 132 and Murphy 189.  Top two now King (SF) 7580, Murphy (AAA) 7079.  Kearns (Lab) overtook Lahart (FF) earlier so the latter is next to go.  There are just over 9000 votes between the candidates other than the top two.

[YL]

First count, Roscommon-South Leitrim

Connaughton (FF) 7334
Fitzmaurice (Ind) 6220
Kenny (SF) 5906
Hopkins (FG) 5593
McDermott (Ind) 2944
Kelly (Lab) 2037
Corcoran (Ind) 1262
Crosby (Ind) 1030
Guckian (Ind) 902
O'Boyle (Ind) 82

[YL]

Count 6, Dublin SW

King (SF) 7828
Murphy (AAA) 7436
McMahon (Ind) 3049
Keane (FG) 2575
Kearns (Lab) 2492 - to be eliminated

So the gap has closed from 748 on the first count to 392 on the sixth.

Count 7

King (SF) 8017
Murphy (AAA) 7726
Keane (FG) 3857
McMahon (Ind) 3416

Gap now 291.  Both Keane and McMahon will now be eliminated, so the next count will be the final one.  Given the general trend for Murphy to catch up and the number of votes to be transferred I'd expect him to do it.