2010 State Elections in Germany

[Insula Dei]

Its interesting that the most consistent pattern in all these German polls is that support for the FDP is down as much as 10% from the last election and support for the Greens is up by a similar amount. Do people think that there is actually a massive FDP to Green swing vote or is it more FDP voters have gone to the CDU and the CDU voters have gone Green or SPD and some SPD voters have gone Green etc...? and for that matter what would be the explanation for such a big FDP melt-down accompanied by a rise of the Greens? Do those parties actually fish from the same "pool" of voters?  

Maybe the voter transition analysis for the 2009 election gives some insight (Infratest dimap):

CDU/CSU
- Won 870,000 voters from the SPD.
- Lost 1,130,000 voters to the FDP, 60,000 voters to the Greens, and 40,000 voters to the Left Party.

FDP
- Won 1,130,000 voters from the CDU/CSU, 520,000 voters from the SPD, 20,000 voters from the Greens, and 20,000 voters from the Left Party.

SPD
- Lost 1,110,000 voters to the Left Party, 870,000 voters to the CDU/CSU, 860,000 voters to the Greens, and 520,000 voters to the FDP.

Greens
- Won 860,000 voters from the SPD and 60,000 voters from the CDU/CSU.
- Lost 130,000 voters to the Left Party and 20,000 voters to the FDP.

Left Party
- Won 1,110,000 voters from the SPD, 130,000 voters from the Greens, and 40,000 voters from the CDU/CSU.
- Lost 20,000 voters to the FDP.


The numbers for 2005:

CDU/CSU
- Won 640,000 from the SPD and 110,000 from the Greens.
- Lost 1,250,000 to the FDP and 280,000 to the Left Party.

FDP
- Won 1,250,000 from the CDU/CSU, 170,000 from the SPD, and 50,000 from the Greens.
- Lost 90,000 to the Left Party.

SPD
- Lost 960,000 to the Left Party, 640,000 to the CDU/CSU, 210,000 to the Greens, and 170,000 to the FDP.

Greens
- Won 210,000 from the SPD.
- Lost 220,000 to the Left Party, 110,000 to the CDU/CSU, and 50,000 to the FDP.

Left Party
- Won 960,000 from the SPD, 280,000 from the CDU/CSU, 220,000 from the Greens, and 90,000 from the FDP.


Sources: SPIEGEL special election issues, 2009 & 2005

* moderately amused at the existence of Die Linke-FDP swing voters.

[Insula Dei]

If this were to be repeated at a Federal Election, would the greens carry a lot of constituency seats? I seem to recall they have 1 right now (Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, or something like that?).

Also, the CDU would still outsize it's opponents, whereas the SDP faills to make any gains relative to the 2009 disaster. Would this mean a CDU-Green Cabinet could be on the table?

I'm really starting to get interested and think it's a real shame the next german election is this far away.

[Insula Dei]

Won't his CSU-membership hurt him, in that most of the CDU would prefer a CDU leader?
Or Am I completely mistaken?