Strange things are about to happen in the polls -- and few to the benefit of the GOP Presidential ticket.
lol what?
The Obama/Biden campaign will convince people that privatization of Medicare and Social Security will not only be rip-offs but also put America at risk of another Great Depression. At least that will be the pitch. The Republicans have only three months in which to convince the American public otherwise, which is far from enough time.
I don't usually predict something yet to happen in a political race that has no clear precedent in recent elections, but this is a cautious prediction in the context of a collapse of credibility of one of the nominees. Whatever credibility Mitt Romney had as a moderate is ruined through his pick of an extremist as a running mate.
Indiana is conservative but not crazy. The poll that showed Romney up 16 in the state is an interactive poll -- and hence worthless because it is so easily manipulated. North Carolina has been a virtual tie all year and it gets an added edge as an Obama win of 2008. Missouri was very close in 2008 and nothing indicates that it will slip away. Whatever gains Romney made in Arizona compared to early and reasonable expectations is shot.
South Dakota gave Romney +6 in its last two polls and gets close. Tennessee has been in the high single digits for Romney... see also South Dakota. Georgia and Montana seemed to be in reach for President Obama.
Just watch the polls. Romney and Ryan have just re-established the New Deal coalition for the other side with people who never experienced the New Deal first-hand.
Ok, I really need to nitpick this post. Sorry but I can't resist
1) I'll give you one thing: The Ryan plan can easily be demonized and will help Obama solidify his support in working class states in the midwest and among seniors in states like Florida BUT...
2) Yes, Indiana is conservative, but what is CRAZY is to assume that Obama will win it again. It could be close, but 2008 was a perfect storm and a fluke for Indiana.
3) A lot of things indicate MO is slipping away from the Democrats. Like, I don't know, the fact that Obama didn't win it under the best of circumstances, McCaskill's troubles and the polling that shows Romney up by at least 8 or 9. Obama only wins MO in a landslide
4) There is no way Obama wins Tennessee. Whatever doubts people there have about Ryan's ideas will be quickly overlooked when they remember that he is up against the Kenyan Marxist. We southerners have a tendency to cut off noses to spite our own faces. (I'm guessing you're referencing that Vanderbilt poll from almost a year ago)
5) I'd love for Georgia to be within reach, but that's at least a few cycles away if current trends continue here. Not gonna happen in 2012.
6) The new deal coalition is dead with no hope of resuscitation.
