Nichlemn
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,920
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« on: June 24, 2018, 03:16:35 AM » |
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Joseph Cao in LA-02 is another parallel. Despite his district's D+28 lean, he was actually leading in early polling, and even 538's model made him a favourite for re-election. Nonetheless, he still lost in November 2010 by a 2:1 margin.
I suspect Jones to follow a similar path - a positive approval, a lead in early polling, and then losing by ~10 in what at the time was a surprisingly large margin, but in hindsight everyone thinks "c'mon, it was Alabama, he was never going to be re-elected".
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