Which State is Most Likely to "Flip" in 2016?

[Nichlemn]

The only sensible answers are Florida and North Carolina, as the closest states and the closest won by each party. Ohio, I suppose, is defensible, but I find it improbable to conceive of a race where the Rs win Ohio but not Florida, let alone have it more likely than the converse.

Your answer should basically boil down to "Do you think it's more likely than not that the 2016 Democratic nominee will outperform Obama?", with perhaps a further tilting of the scales towards the Republicans on the basis that NC was not as close as FL and Obama is perhaps a uniquely good fit for that state. (You could consider the unpopularity of state Republicans as a mitigating factor, but state politics don't tend to influence Presidential races as much as the fundamentals).

 On that basis, I vote Florida. I think the Democrats are a small favourite to win the Presidency in 2016, mostly due to Hillary, but the over/under line is not at Obama's 2012 performance.