Great new demographic-based Electoral College calculator by Nate Silver

[Nichlemn]

Here.

It's ostensibly about the effects of immigration reform, but I think the general racial voting patterns are more interesting. See what it takes, for instance, to make Texas a D-leaning state (going Democratic as the country goes Republican).

[Nichlemn]

A word of caution: because this calculator assumes uniform swings, the results are probably not very accurate when large swings are inputted. In states where Republicans already win very high percentages of the white vote, further national swings wouldn't get them much further. Also, I suspect the calculation of the national popular vote might get skewed by large swings.

[Nichlemn]

This is absolutely awesome. Actually, there needs to be a new word to express how great it is.

There is only one thing I don't get: how comes that, when you toy around with the "immigration reform" buttons (the one on the top, left of the maps), the outcome of the 2012 election is affected? The margin goes from 3.8 (actual margin) with no immigration reform, to 6.8 when both bars are at 100%. By definition, the reform will only be implemented after the election, so how can it change 2012 results (even if not by much)?

I assume it's based on the hypothetical scenario where it was implemented prior to the 2012 election, for comparison purposes.