Red state turning blue

[Nichlemn]

The items listed above are all states that voted Republican in each presidential election from 1992 trough to 2008.

Which of them, in your estimation, could most possibly turn "blue" in future presidential elections?

(You've only got one vote.)

With respect to you and this poll, the answer is this: for any of these to turn blue in a presidential election, we would see a Democrat elected having carried 80 percent of the states in this country. An overwhelming, national victory like what we used to get before the 1990s. (My answer is the same with the other thread's poll, touching on the same subject but asking for a scenario opposite of this one.)

This is wrong, but closer to the truth than for the other scenario. The fact you can't see why the two are different is troubling.

[Nichlemn]

I honestly don't see much of a trend in Texas, and the GOP base states are probably not going anywhere for a while. I'd go with SC, reluctantly.

Look at the Exit polls from Texas in 2008/2010. Dems won the under 30 vote in the Pres/Gov elections and the under 45 vote was split about 50/50. Texas may never be a Democratic stronghold but it is definitely moving to swing state status in the not to distant future.

That's the case in a lot of states, though. It would be like saying Kansas will become a swing state because Obama won the under 30 vote there. Maybe the effect is bigger in Texas than nationwide but you haven't shown that.

[Nichlemn]

South Carolina, Texas, Utah
In that order. First two will be close though.

Utah? Only if a Democratic Mormon ran.

Utah has insane population growth that's non-Mormon. It's pretty likely it will be like Colorado in about 20 years.

Colorado is only about 2% Mormon though. Yes, Utah non-Mormons are very Democratic, but I suspect a lot of that is oppositional voting. If Mormons were reduced to a minority and no longer dominated the states' politics, I'd guess the non-Mormons Utahns would start voting somewhat similarly to non-Mormon Coloradans, leaving the state still quite Republican.