2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Trump really only needs FL and PA, both of which are getting much closer. It’s your funeral, I suppose.

Is the margin in PA getting closer?

Recent PA poll, Biden +2. I’ll take that heading into the election should it hold.

Most recent PA polls.

Biden +5, +4, +7, +2.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

National polls are getting ever closer.

Practically all swing states have Trump gaining ground, and are now within margin of error.

Trump is going to win this thing. My confidence is growing ever stronger.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

National polls are getting ever closer.

Practically all swing states have Trump gaining ground, and are now within margin of error.

Trump is going to win this thing. My confidence is growing ever stronger.

Biden+9 gives you confidence?

Please. You can’t just look at numbers at face value. You need to know how to synthesize and us all the data available.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

If even Barack Obama could not unite the country after George W. Bush, does anyone really believe Joe Biden would be able to do so after Donald Trump?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

If even Barack Obama could not unite the country after George W. Bush, does anyone really believe Joe Biden would be able to do so after Donald Trump?

Yes. Obama was a black, you see, and therefore 40-45% of the country hated him.

No. Biden is an old, angry, white, cis-male, you see. Therefore 40-45% of the Democratic Party already hates him.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Rassy +1 head to head, NPV (48%-47%)

Rassy +6 approvals (52%-46%)

Along with Rassy polling good battle ground states.

Walls are closing in, Dems.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Rassy +6 approvals (52%-48%;

Math is off there, DTT. 

Fixed.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Again, Trump is still popping some good numbers.


Not consistently good numbers for Trump but a stark improvement - I’m convinced we have a proper race on - Biden isn’t winning the election with more than +5% (which would still be compelling, but not nearly a blowout that was being predicted just a couple weeks ago).

And I’m still holding strong with a Trump re-election. The battle grounds are ever closer, and a pattern with presidential elections is that on Election Day, some people do indeed ‘come home’ for the incumbent.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Al Gore, John Kerry, Mitt Romney (to a lesser extent), and Hillary Clinton were all facing a weak and/or vulnerable opposing candidate, and all were expected to win the presidency. They did not. Make of that what you will.

Over the last two decades, the literally only predictable election was McCain/Obama in 2008. Four out of the last five elections have had some sort of surprises). That’s what I call a pattern. 2020 is unpredictable for a whole host of issues - there will be surprises on election night (and beyond).

What those surprises may be, and who they may benefit, I do not know.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Al Gore, John Kerry, Mitt Romney (to a lesser extent), and Hillary Clinton were all facing a weak and/or vulnerable opposing candidate, and all were expected to win the presidency. They did not. Make of that what you will.

Over the last two decades, the literally only predictable election was McCain/Obama in 2008. Four out of the last five elections have had some sort of surprises). That’s what I call a pattern. 2020 is unpredictable for a whole host of issues - there will be surprises on election night (and beyond).

What those surprises may be, and who they may benefit, I do not know.

Gore, Kerry, and Romney were all slight underdogs?

Perhaps in hindsight, but at they time they were all slight ‘overdogs’ - Al Gore even more so.

Al Gore was running as the VP under a successful 8 years of Bill Clinton, and a still booming economy of the mid and late 1990s. He was also running against George Bush, who many couldn’t take seriously.

John Kerry was running against an incredibly vulnerable George W. Bush. Bush did well in the public view in the immediate fallout of 9/11, and even for the beginning of the Iraq War. He was able to keep enough support from that 4 years later, but in 2004, Bush was becoming rapidly unpopular - mainly due to how bungle the Iraq War became, and all the controversies of it - ‘Bush lied, people died’was the constant chant. Gitmo, Abu Ghraib, Waterboarding, and allowing Bin Laden to somehow escape from Tara Bora (in December of 2001). The whole macho talk and the Axis of Evil rhetoric didn’t help, further worsened with the image of Bush as a foolish person, all favored John Kerry.....not quite as divisive as Trump (of course), but the left vilified Bush in similar fashion - it was very ugly, and at the time the GWB presidency was believed to be the most partisan and divisive in quite some time. People were genuinely shocked Bush won re-election, in fact Kerry didn’t concede until the afternoon of the following day.

Now onto Mitt Romney - I wrote wayyy to much about GWB (I came of age under GWB, and was quite fond of him, hence the essay), so I’ll keep this one short: The 2012 election of Romney/Obama was expected to be very, very close. Back when Gallup was still reputable, their poll the day before the election had Mitt Romney leading by +1 (at 50% to 49%). Romney, went on to lose, and it wasn’t even close - RCP final averaged poll was Obama +0.7 (at 48.8% to 48.1%), of course Obama won comfortably by 3.9% (!) (final result being 51.1% to 47.2%). That, my friend, says it all.

— for what it’s worth, I was a very ardent support of Romney from 2007 through to 2016, he was the first politician that I discovered on my own, and loved him from the off, so much so that the resulting ‘breakup’ in 2016 was tough for me.

In 20 years, 2008 remains the only predictable election. Biden might win. Trump may lose. I understand the thinking behind that outcome - but regardless who wins, expect some surprises along the way.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

It’s going to be absolute bedlam tomorrow night.

I don’t use that word lightly.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Trump is now in command IMO. I told you that as Election Day approaches, the polls would shift towards Trump. I’d be very concerned if I were a Biden supporter.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Lalala...

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Not to boast.

Actually, eff it...

To boast: I told you all.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Not to boast.

Actually, eff it...

To boast: I told you all.

They're still counting...

For my predictions anc analysis....I called the entire thing. So if you’re goin to give Nate Silver grace for his dumb nonsense in 2016 (and 2020), I expect that to be extended. I’m literally the only one who got this right.

Supposedly Trump had a 10% chance of winning. I went against every prediction, and my analysis was spot on. That’s not luck, Squre.