No. Too many factors are against him this time. Although they're was a lot of issues in 2004 that were against Bush but he still won.
I'd give him a 60-70% chance.
Not really.
Bush, no matter what you think of him, had a very strong first term - he was riding the rally effect from 9/11. Sure, it diminshed greatly by Nov 2004, but he was still above 50% - compare this to Obama who has slipped to lows of 39% in his first term, and has struggled to hit 50%+ over the last 2 years!
And a lot of issues against Bush? No. Hardly. 2004 was mainly about national security - that was only 3 years after 9/11, and Bush/GOP were seen strong on that. The backlash of the Iraq War didn't really take proper shape until after his election (remember, it was only 1 year on at that point, and remember again it had strong bipartisan support), likewise, Katrina was a year away, too.....
Obama, NOT Bush, has more issues going against him. How one wins the election with an approval rating regarding the economy - you know, the #1 issue of the electorate - around 36% is beyond me. And how about his foreign policy? - To liberals, he has continued too many of Bush's policies, and for Republicans, he's weak, dithers, and has no leadership.
60-70% chance of re-election? While he may still eek out a very slender victory, you're going to be either sweating or going to be a very disappointed man in November.....
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