How will America be in 2050 (user search)
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  How will America be in 2050 (search mode)
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Author Topic: How will America be in 2050  (Read 55643 times)
Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,214
United States


« on: March 29, 2011, 07:58:30 PM »

Posting a map is fairly useless but here are some general predictions.  Comments are very appreciated.

NO ELECTORAL COLLEGE.  By 2050, the inherent fallacies in the EC will have come up again, possibly several times.  This piece of electoral reform will open the way for a multi-party system.  Most likely you would see two strong parties, an emerging moderately powerful third party, and three-ish "fourth parties" all about as influential as America's current third parties.

REPUBLICAN PARTY.  By 2050, our WASP leaders will all be long gone, replaced by a more dynamic crop of candidates.  Latinos will make up a good portion, if not a majority, of the social conservative base (which will be much less conservative than the current GOP).  Protestant, Catholic, and Mormon leaders work in harmony to accomplish their conservative goals.  Economic issues will be back at the forefront of political discourse; with peak long past we could see the first world squabbling over rapidly dwindling supplies of oil while efforts to transition to alternate energies are not wholly successful.  The GOP could become the party of economic protectionism and isolationism, building on their mantra of "Drill at home" to include American-mined clean coal and other homegrown alternatives.  Thus they will oppose overseas wars for oil (regardless of the cover reasons).

DEMOCRATIC PARTY.  If the teens, thirties, and forties are years of nearly unbroken Democratic control, similar to the fifties, seventies, and eighties of the 20th century, the Democratic Party could be entering another wilderness period after a long run of power.  The Democratic coalition of the present and near future could be breaking down, losing steam to the emerging third party.  In keeping with the economic scenario above, the Democrats are the likeliest candidate for social centrists, economic free traders foreign interventionists in the mold of Clinton and Obama.

LIBERAL PARTY.  A bit of a cliche, I know; hopefully the next generation will have better naming skills.  If the Democratic coalition is breaking down, following the removal of the electoral coalition (allowing third parties to become viable at the federal level) and the resurgence of the Grand Old Party, a defection of progressives seems quite likely.  The liberals would find their base in the youth vote, higher-educated voters, homosexuals (Gay Marriage will still probably be a new thing at the Federal level), and pragmatic green/libertarian voters.  Socially progressive but open to free trade assuming restrictions to countries with bad or a lack of labor laws and economic protection.

LIBERTARIAN & GREEN PARTIES.  Both of these parties continue to function only at the local level, as their supporters tend to vote Liberal on the national level to make sure their vote counts (America still has a first-past-the-post system even without the Electoral College).  Anarcho-syndicalist and eco-terrorists still find havens in these two parties.

CONSTITUTION PARTY.  Those WASP's unable to handle the new, strong, Republic base migrated here.  Thus the Constitutionalists are slightly stronger than the Libertarian and Green Parties, with at least one elected official on the state level.  They also make a big show out of fiscal austerity measures and balanced budgets, much more than the Republicans and Liberals (balancing the budget has become more of a Democratic plank).

SPACE PARTY.  This is a bit of a wildcard pick.  My thinking is that by the mid 21'st century we will have conducted several missions to Mars and maintain a base(s) on the red planet.  In addition, we might have discovered life on Europa and, by this point, we might even see asteroid mining on a limited scale.  Materials technology could have advanced to the point where space based solar power and space elevators are realistic engineering projects.  With the major parties focused on bread and circus's, a new party is needed to advocate for the deep black sea.

DEMOGRAPHICS.  The US Population will be in the low 400 millions.  A lot of this population growth be immigration, from Latin America and Asia (mostly the Arab world and Southeast Asia).  This will allow the US to avoid the Demographic crunch that the majority of the developed world will face (not, of course, to downplay the Baby Boomer crisis). 

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION:  As the major terminus of immigration from both Asia and Latin America, California will continue to see large growth.  In fact, the whole Southwest will continue to grow at a fast pace.  The Sunbelt will also continue its growth as northerners move down for the cheap housing prices and prime retirement lots, continuing the depopulation of the north.  Unless, of course, America tries to revitalize its economy and grow its production sector, meaning that the north and midwest will hold some of their population.  Another thing that could stop the southern emigration is climate; if the worst case scenario predictions turn out to be correct, frequent devestating hurricanes could make the Gulf Coast an unattractive real estate location.  That shouldn't hurt the east coast south (Virginia, the Carolinas, and Georgia) but retirees might need to find a new destination.  One outside possibility is the Pacific Northwest.  Beaches (burr, cold) but still beaches, and if things follow my political outline, the Liberal Party (with a substantial economic libertarian wing) could wind up in control of Washington in Oregon, leading to a (at least slight) decrease in housing costs do to lower property taxes.
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