Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Niemeyerite]

I got the chance to meet Lula (and Janja, Mercadante, etc) last month during his trip around Europe. I'm just so excited about 2022 and I'll do everything possible to help him win the Presidency! Lula Já!

[Niemeyerite]

I don't really see Lula taking Paraná or Mató Grosso do Sul. And in my mind, Rio Grande do Sul and Rio de Janeiro are toss-ups, with SP being only slightly leaning towards Lula. I hope I'm wrong but what I see is a huge territorial polarization but Bolsonaro still retaining some of his strongholds, even in Rio.

[Niemeyerite]

Let's not forget that the last POTUS election was close - would even Trump have contested his defeat if he had been stomped in the same fashion that the polls currently indicate for Bolsonaro?

Yes, I think Trump would have claimed fraud no matter what. But Trump will be recalled as "gracious" in defeat when we see Bolsonaro after losing in October. He and his troop of loonies will be so mad. I can't wait to start enjoying the despair of the family of milicianos and their cult followers!

[Niemeyerite]

Maybe Putin lovers who will justify everything he does just because the USA is the only imperialist power in their minds and that justifies every invasion not done by the USA may describe me as a "liberal leftist Zelensky lover".

So I will just say I didn't like what Lula said. But I'm still a hardcore PTista who will vote and campaign as hard as possible for him. There are many things Lula says or does that I dislike. But he was a great president and he's the vaccine we need to kill the fascist virus that's been destroying Brazil even before Bolsonaro was sworn in.

[Niemeyerite]

Maybe Putin lovers who will justify everything he does just because the USA is the only imperialist power in their minds and that justifies every invasion not done by the USA may describe me as a "liberal leftist Zelensky lover".

So I will just say I didn't like what Lula said. But I'm still a hardcore PTista who will vote and campaign as hard as possible for him. There are many things Lula says or does that I dislike. But he was a great president and he's the vaccine we need to kill the fascist virus that's been destroying Brazil even before Bolsonaro was sworn in.

Pretty much the response I expect from the stronger liberal sectors of the left tbh

Which means, let’s overlook it and ignore because it’s Lula. But anyone who agrees with HIS words is a Putin lover since we don’t dare calling Lula that.

It's not a big deal. Maybe if we were talking about some European country yes, it could affect my voting decision. But Brazil should simply stay away from the conflict. And Lula words are understandable once you realize he never stops talking about how he will bring the BRICS back.

[Niemeyerite]

Maybe Putin lovers who will justify everything he does just because the USA is the only imperialist power in their minds and that justifies every invasion not done by the USA may describe me as a "liberal leftist Zelensky lover".

So I will just say I didn't like what Lula said. But I'm still a hardcore PTista who will vote and campaign as hard as possible for him. There are many things Lula says or does that I dislike. But he was a great president and he's the vaccine we need to kill the fascist virus that's been destroying Brazil even before Bolsonaro was sworn in.

Pretty much the response I expect from the stronger liberal sectors of the left tbh

Which means, let’s overlook it and ignore because it’s Lula. But anyone who agrees with HIS words is a Putin lover since we don’t dare calling Lula that.

It's not a big deal. Maybe if we were talking about some European country yes, it could affect my voting decision. But Brazil should simply stay away from the conflict. And Lula words are understandable once you realize he never stops talking about how he will bring the BRICS back.

But the correlation between the leftist “Russian defender” and BRICS supporter is pretty high. In fact that is the main reason Brazilian leftists defend Russia so I don’t get why it’s only cool when Lula says it lol

I mean, if you think sanctions and a harsh response on Russia are necessary, how can you support a bloc of emergent countries that includes Russia? This is the lack of consistency that boggles my mind from some liberal leftist sectors sometimes.

I can understand people who criticize the Anti-Russia sanctions and are BRICS enthusiasts because they want a multilateral global order that isn’t defined by submission to wealthier white countries.

I can understand people who support the Russia sanctions and are against BRICS as well even if I disagree with them and their view of savage uneducated third-world people threatening us.

But I don’t understand people who defend harsh response against Russia and still love BRICS. Those are mostly liberal sectors of the left usually trying to conciliate their disapproval for the war with their disapproval for a subjugated global south just to be able to achieve some artificial moral superiority that is just impossible to conciliate in the practical real world.

You can support a multilateral global order and the idea behind BRICS and still disapprove of Russia for invading a country, killing its people and destroying its cities. I'm not against Russia per se, I'm against Putin and his war. But I think Russia should play a role in a multipolar World. But that doesn't mean invading other countries and becoming an Empire.

[Niemeyerite]

IMHO, Tebet won the debate, she was the best by far. But Lula won the post-debate by default: everyone is talking today about how agressive Bolsonaro is to both journalists and women, Ciro is being criticized by the left (and fairly!) for being too agressive towards PT and Lula and he just made things worse today by calling Lula senile in a tweet and then deleting it... while Lula sounded like the nice old man that doesn't like to get into fights.

[Niemeyerite]

Lula da Silva
97%
Ciro Gomes
94%
Simone Tebet
64%
Jair Bolsonaro
23%

And of course my vote is for Lula 😊

[Niemeyerite]

I decided my votes.

Federal Representative: Chico Alencar 5050
State Representative: Renata Souza 50007
Senator of Rio de Janeiro: Alessandro Molon 400
Governor of Rio de Janeiro: Marcelo Freixo 40
President: Lula 13

Do you think Molon has a chance? I expected him to be quite irrelevant once Freixo and Lula started campaigning alongside Feliciano. Why hasn't that happened?

[Niemeyerite]

LoL I wrote Feliciano but ofc I was meaning Cecilia no. Huge difference 😂

I can only vote for President but this is how I'd vote if I lived in Minas:

Dép. Estadual: probably Jo Morales (PCdoB), maybe just PT.
Dép. Federal: leaning Duda Salabert (PDT) but could be Patrus (PT) if Duda suddenly becomes "cirista" in the final days and attacks PT or whatever.
Senador: Alexandre Silveira (PSD) - voto útil.
Governador: Kalil (PSD) some time ago just because he was the only viable candidate but now I actually appreciate him.
Presidente: LULA (PT) 13 and it's been clear since the very moment he was released from prison.

[Niemeyerite]

🇳🇿 - Wellington

Lula 329 - 72.95%
Bolsonaro 71 - 15.74%
Ciro 23 - 5.10%


In 2018 It was:

Bolsonaro 140 - 41.06%
Ciro 89 - 26.10%
Amoedo 46 - 13.49%
Haddad 23 - 6.74%

🎉🎉🎉🎉

[Niemeyerite]

🇳🇿 - Wellington

Lula 329 - 72.95%
Bolsonaro 71 - 15.74%
Ciro 23 - 5.10%


In 2018 It was:

Bolsonaro 140 - 41.06%
Ciro 89 - 26.10%
Amoedo 46 - 13.49%
Haddad 23 - 6.74%

🎉🎉🎉🎉

I don't want to get too excited but F@CK YEAH!!!

Will there be any other closings in countries abroad (like in Australia, etc)?

Yes, as soon as it's 17h in other countries we'll get the results there too. Unfortunately for me, I vote in Madrid but I'm working in Berlin today so I won't be able to vote. But I'll go to the Brazilian embassy to follow the election as polls close.

[Niemeyerite]

🇳🇿 - Wellington

Lula 329 - 72.95%
Bolsonaro 71 - 15.74%
Ciro 23 - 5.10%


In 2018 It was:

Bolsonaro 140 - 41.06%
Ciro 89 - 26.10%
Amoedo 46 - 13.49%
Haddad 23 - 6.74%

🎉🎉🎉🎉

I don't want to get too excited but F@CK YEAH!!!

Will there be any other closings in countries abroad (like in Australia, etc)?

Yes, as soon as it's 17h in other countries we'll get the results there too. Unfortunately for me, I vote in Madrid but I'm working in Berlin today so I won't be able to vote. But I'll go to the Brazilian embassy to follow the election as polls close.

Where can we see those results?

2018 results here:

https://especiais.gazetadopovo.com.br/eleicoes/2018/resultados/municipios-exterior/barcelona-ex/presidente/

2022 ones are being shared on social media.

[Niemeyerite]

I think the anti-Bolsonaro wave is much, much bigger outside Brazil. Here in Spain if you say you're Brazilian, a good chunk of people will tell you how horrible they find Bolsonaro. So I guess part of the reason many Brazilians living abroad, even some bolsominions from 2018, are voting so much more left now is because they are ashamed of the president.

[Niemeyerite]

Brazilian polling os not very good in the 1st round but it's very, very good on 2nd rounds. So I trust this poll. My gut says Lula 54.5%, won't be that close hopefully.

[Niemeyerite]

This race seems honestly a tossup at this point. My gut feeling says Bolsonaro narrowly pulls it off.

How's it a toss up? Lula has been leading in every poll by at least a 4 point margin.

[Niemeyerite]

This race seems honestly a tossup at this point. My gut feeling says Bolsonaro narrowly pulls it off.

How's it a toss up? Lula has been leading in every poll by at least a 4 point margin.

Bolsonaro is the incumbent though, trying lots of heavy spending and dirty tactics to close the gap. I don’t think it will be enough, but analysts low-key expect race to get closer.

Those tactics were also used in the first round and yet Lula got 5% more than Bolsonsro and almost won outright. It can get closer and Bolsonaro can still win, but it's not a toss up.

[Niemeyerite]

My prediction right now is 53.5% Lula 46.5% Bolsonsro. If Lula avoids a disaster in the Globo debate, I'm sure he'll win. What I find amazing is that Ciro hasn't said anything about the election after the Roberto Jefferson terrorist attack.

[Niemeyerite]

I'm só proud of my President right now. And to think I really disliked Pedro Sánchez just some years ago...

[Niemeyerite]

My precinto in Madrid:

Lula 61.9%
Bolsonaro 38.1%

1st round was:

Lula 58.2%
Bolsonaro 33%

[Niemeyerite]

Where can I find 1st round overseas results, please? I don't find any link!

[Niemeyerite]

I can't express how delighted I am. It was closer than I had expected but today I was honestly thinking we were going to lose. But at the end Bolsonaro lost even while rigging the election in his favor. Glorious stuff! Now I can go to Brazil again after 4 years and visit my grandparents, finally!

[Niemeyerite]

Given the closeness of the election, is it fair to say in the aftermath that Lula was the only candidate that could have beaten Bolsonaro? Especially interested in takes from Brazilian posters.

I'm sure only Lula could've done this. Bolsonaro tried to buy the poorest' vote by giving them free money. Most of them voted for Lula anyway because they trust him. Wouldn't have happened to any other candidate. Bolsonaro would have managed to buy the election for him for sure, IMHO. Also, everyone has known Lula since they were born and even then Bolsonaro and his accomplics managed to make many Brazilians believe Lula was a dangerous communist that would take your home and make your family eat their dogs and cats. Lula couldn't be destroyed by a fake news campaign because they already tried to destroy him in multiple ways before, but any other would have perished. 50.8% may not look that impressive, but it is it you consider it all. You only get a Lula once in a century.

[Niemeyerite]

Lula definitely is on the high end of best Presidents of Brazilian history, 2003-2010 was an amazing period for the country. I hope he manages to do his magic this time again, I am very happy with the team of Ministers he selected. Had to make some concessions in certain areas but there are amazing people controling the most important ones. I'm so hopeful, I cannot believe yet Bolsonaro is now the FORMER PRESIDENT of Brazil.

[Niemeyerite]

Will Lula refund FUNAI?

100% yes. He wouldn't have selected Sonia Guajajara as Minister for Indigenous Affairs if he didn't want to refund FUNAI 😊