Romney definitely won't be announcing his choice during the Olympics (27 July to 12 August 2012) unless it's an an outside-the-box choice who happens to be a former Olympian.
In that case, it will probably be before the Olympics or just after. But I don't think the Olympics will be an issue if he picks someone relatively boring like Portman who won't get much of a bounce.
The real key issue is fundraising. If he get get maximum dollars for 4 weeks in August, then he should announce Portman earlier.
Kerry made a mistake in timing (July 6) and in selection (edwards) so that hurt him. It was a desperate move in both instances. If he chose gephardt, he wouldn't feel the need to announce so early to drum up excitement. The announcement early also allowed Bush more time to attack both of them for perceived weakness on national security.
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