Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM (user search)

Good post but I think one thing needs to be added: PP+VOX would still be on track for government even if Podemos and Sumar were one. its only been six weeks since the spit started being polled, and the Right was still leading by more than enough back then. If anything, the split seems to have drawn previously apathetic voters to one of the two, in a classic example of the phenomenon where the whole not does not equal the sum of its parts in multiparty parliamentary system.

Now obviously things can change in the upcoming months before the vote, but I think this expectation of defeat also feeds into the infighting. Cause a truly fierce internal political rivalry only can occur when there is no pressures to set aside ones differences, even temporarily, in the name of political power.

I have to imagine even if they net some extra votes the way the D'Hondt method allocates seats with thresholds will for sure hurt them from a total net seat point of view.

I don't think the right would be on track for government in the eventuality that Podemos joins the "Sumar" broader alliance. According to a recent 40db poll, Sumar + Podemos could win 55 seats getting 18% of the vote. In case they were running in their own, Sumar could win 27 seats (10.9%) and Podemos 11 seats (6.9%). The poll says a joint ticket could win 17 seats more than two separate lists, adding a similar vote percentage (the difference for the progressive bloc is 14 seats). Moreover: a joint ticket would be placed third pushng Vox to the 4th place, what is important in the Spanish electoral system. Keep in mind that Spanish general elections are fought in 50 provincial constituencies (plus 2 aytonomous cities). The small size of most constituencies makes that many votes for the parties placed 4th and 5th are wasted. Additionally the less populated provinces are over-represented with the more populated. There is a rural bias in the allocation of seats, while the vote for the left-wing Sumar and Podemos is predominantly urban.

https://elpais.com/espana/2023-05-03/el-bloque-de-la-izquierda-perderia-14-escanos-si-podemos-y-sumar-concurren-por-separado.html

On the other hand, I don't think the reason for infighting is that they expect to be defeated. Another question is that folks in the left share the certainty that division leads to defeat. In spite of that conviction, they are still fighting each other. The reasons are hard to explain and I can only give my guess, in absence of good explanations

Can be an agreement made like NA+ where Sumar+Podemos run together in smaller constituencies?

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