Peruvian elections 2011

[RodPresident]

Nobody is seeing, but one of most interesting elections of year is in Peru. South American country has a crazy dispute, with 10 candidates, but 5 fighting for 2 places in run-off. Incumbent party, APRA (formally centre-left, but with a right-of-center government), is only in legislative election, like Peru Possible in 2006. Dispute began with former mayor of Lima, Luis Castañeda (Solidaridad Nacional, right-wing) and daddy's girl Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza 2011, populist right-wing) as front-runners, but former president Alejandro Toledo (Peru Possible, center) had a surge during late-2010. Now, Ollanta Humala (2006 pro-Chavez defeated candidate) and former Toledo's PM Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (with support of a broad centrist that includes Lourdes Flores' party) appeared in conditions to go to run-off). Nobel Prize and defeated candidate Mario Vargas Llosa said that if run-off be between Humala and Fujimori "it would be like choosing AIDS or terminal cancer".

[RodPresident]

EXIT POLLS:
IPSOS/Apoyo
Humala: 31.6%
Keiko Fujimori: 21.4%
PPK: 19.2%
Toledo: 16.1%
Castañeda: 10.2%
Others: 1.5%
CPI
Humala: 33%
Keiko Fujimori: 22%
PPK: 19%
Toledo: 15.3%
Castañeda: 9.5%
Others: 1.2%
DATUM
Humala: 33.8%
Fujimori: 21.3%
PPK: 19.5%
Toledo: 15.2%
Castañeda: 9.7%

[RodPresident]

Congressional seats:
Gana Peru (Humala): 46 seats
Fuerza 2011 (Fujimori): 38 seats
Peru Posible (Toledo): 21 seats
Alianza para el Gran Cambio (Kuczynski): 12 seats
Solidaridad Nacional (Castañeda): 9 seats
APRA: 4 seats
Humala won't have majority unless he mades a coalition. This way, he would face difficulties to make changes like Chávez or Morales.

[RodPresident]

Run-off will be nexy Sunday. Vargas Llosa endorsed Humala against daughter of his old enemy. He even split with a rightist newspaper that is endorsing Keiko Fujimori. From former candidates, Toledo will go with Humala, while PPK and Castañeda will endorse Keiko. APRA's designate-candidate, Mercedes Araóz, will vote for Keiko too. Election is a deadlock and results will be probably contested by defeated.

[RodPresident]

Many believe that a general amnesty can occurs either with Humala or Fujimori, although her political support is more weak. With this, papa Fujimori, Abimael Guzman (Sendero Luminoso) and Humala's brother (Antauro) can get out of jail. Montesinos would be kept on jail as scape goat.