British States

[Polkergeist]

Here is a scenario for the What-If files. I read a book  titled '51st state' by a British author and without using too much imagination you can gather that the book is about the British Isles (including Ireland) becoming part of the US. From memory each of the nations of the UK and Ireland became states of the union.

So how would this play out in a presidential election ?

My automatic response would be that it would push the balance in favour of the Democrats as the UK is more liberal (in the American sense).

But upon closer thought maybe this might not be true. Britain did elect Thatcher after all and while Scotland and Wales are soildly left wing at present they are home to nationalist movement which in the above scenario could be tempted by the small federal govt / states rights argument that many conservatives hold.

As for Ulster and Ireland they may also be attracted by the Religious conservatism of GOP.

So in a question tailormade for the British and Irish members of this board. How would the hypothetical states of England, Scotland, Wales, Ulster and Ireland tend to vote in a hypotetical presdential election ?

[Polkergeist]

The Celtic parties would remain regional and naional. If Ireland and Ulster do choose major parties, they won't be the same ones.

And the state of England will have like twice the EVs of California. Now that's power!

From what I know of the Emerald Isle,  I agree with your point about Ulster and Ireland voting for different parties.

[Polkergeist]

After doing a little research......

What-if 2000 Election with British Isles

Existing 50 states as per OTL.

England : 84 ev
Gore (D): 48.5%
Bush (R): 35.2%
Nader (G): 13%

Wales: 7 ev
Gore (D): 48.9 %
Bush (R): 21 %
Jones (PC): 14.3%
Nader (G): 13.8%

Scotland: 12 ev
Gore (D): 47.2 %
Swinney (SNP): 20.1%
Bush (R): 15.6 %
Nader (G): 12.5%

Ulster: 6 ev
Bush (R): 51.2%
Adams (SF): 21.7%
Gore (D): 17.5%
Nader (G): 7%

Ireland: 8 ev
Gore (D): 46.6 %
Bush (R): 41.6 %
Nader (G): 8.7 %
Adams (SF): 7.4 %


Final result
Gore (D): 376 ev, 48.2%
Bush (R): 276 ev, 45.1%
Nader (G):    0  ev,  4.6 %

I came up with the figures by using the UK 2001 Gen election results. Essentially

GB
Dem: 75% of Lab vote + 90% of LD vote
GOP: Con vote
Grn: UK Grn vote + 25% of Lab vote + 10% of LD Vote

NI
Dem: 75 % of SDLP vote + 50% of NI Alliance vote
GOP: DUP vote + UUP vote + Con vote + UKUP vote
Grn: 25% of SDLP Vote + 50%  NI Alliance vote

And for Ireland I used the results of 2002 parliamentary election and I also changed 5% from GOP to Dem as FF was in Govt whilist GOP was not  :

Dem: Fine Gael + 66% Labour + 66% Progessive Democrats
GOP: Fianna Fáil
Grn: Irish Greens vote + 33% Labour + 33% Progressive Democrats

If anyone can comment on the Irish modle that would be appreciated.

[Polkergeist]

Thanks for the feedback:

-Nader and Labour: I figured that about 1/3 to 1/2 of Labour voters would be frustrated about US Dems not being left wing enough for their tastes. Now not all of those voters would change their votes but a large portion would hence there is where I picked the 25% amount.

Now later on this would subside as the shift in the political spectrum kicks in which what Gustaf was talking
about above.

-Nader and Lib Dems: Nader/Greens would pick up some  independant-minded left wing votes that would go to LD in OTL. But I can't see him getting more that a fraction as I always thought LD were a combination of European Liberals and Social Demorcats that thought the Labour party was too left wing. In short centrists.


-Ireland: I read that FF was a conservative Catholic nationalist party, whilist FG was more moderate although Christian Democratic party. Here is the link

http://psephos.adam-carr.net/ireland/statsireland.html

It's a little difficult to pick ireland as the parties don't seem to fall neatly onto a left-right spectrum. But I do think that GOP would do better in Ireland than GB as it is more religous and as a result historically more conservative.

[Polkergeist]

I was interested in this thread as I was looking to do a TL ala VP Harry on an expanded US taking in what is now termed the Anglosphere (UK, Canada, Ireland, Australia, NZ). Apparently an old political rumor had Harold Wilson contemplating the idea in the late 60's with LBJ. In Political reality it is a Non Sequiter. But it makes great Mills and Boon for Psephologists.

Anyway I wasn't too confident about the UK, I can do Australia and NZ would you guys want to add in for the British Isles part ?

[Polkergeist]

Thanks Al

I'll have it starting about 1968. However I'll start it in a new thread in the next few days. I'll do the story line and every election you can come in with the results from the British Isles.  Also I'll try to get some maps done, so let me know how you want the UK and Ireland split up fo this TL.

BTW if we could find a Canadian to do those results that would be super.

[Polkergeist]

Well it is a What-If. We could waive away the Vietnam war so it wouldn't be a problem.

How about this........

In 1936 King Edward VIII doesn't marry Wallis Simpson and stays on the throne. His Nazi sympathies remain and  become an irritant  but not a major threat throughout WWII to the point Churchill puts him under house arrest. But as this is the war this is all kept secret. WWII goes on schedule as in OTL

In Nov '63 JFK misses the assasisns' bullet . He gets re-elected over Goldwater by a wide margin in '64. In '65 JFK de-escalates Vietnam.

In '66 Wilson runs the UK-US union idea by  JFK after being rebuffed by De Gaulle once too rudely over EEC membership. While JFK has a fondness for Britain from back when his dad was ambassador he thinks its crazy talk and sends Harold on his way.

In '67 the news breaks that King Edward VII was a Nazi sympathiser and this discredits the royal family and thus he has to abdicate with no legitimate sucessor. A regent is appointed but this cannot last and in the 20th century royals cannot just be created.

Over the other side if the pond news breaks about JFK's infidelities. This threatens to drag him down to an ignominious end to his political career and stain his brothers as well. So in a big picture plan he invites Harold Wilson back to the White House to discuss his big plan.

British states in '68

Gentlemen start your poking!

[Polkergeist]

Did someone say Wallace-Powell in '68 ?

[Polkergeist]

Meanwhile back across the pond…….

Jan 1968

JFK is riding high in the approval ratings with his previous indiscretions fading behind this momentous uniting of the Atlantic. If only he could run for a third term but alas he is barred. However his brother RFK as Attorney General has been heavily involved in the statehood negotiations with the UK and now is negotiating in Ireland. After consulting with his inner circle they decide that the uniting of the Atlantic is a Kennedy project, which is unfinished business, they therefore urge RFK to run which he after musing over it accepts.

However the RFK campaign is in Jan 1968 is not your usual campaign, as RFK is engaged over the Atlantic in rather historic duties so rather other campaign on his behalf. Effectively he runs on the new Atlantic project and the JFK legacy. In Jan 1968 this is strong and thus scares other prominent Democrats out of the race.  VP Johnson had already decided to retire from politics at the end of this term. Hubert Humphrey had decided to not to run against RFK.  But mid-way through Jan 1968 there emerged another Democratic candidate Texas governor John Connally. He said that he was prompted to run because he believed the Democratic Party had become too liberal.   The battle for the Democratic nomination had been joined.

For the Republicans, Nixon had decided not to run in ’68 as he thought RFK would be too strong. This left the race for the Republican nomination as a battle of the ambitious state Governors Nelson Rockefeller of New York and Ronald Reagan of California. This was also a battle of the two wings of the Republican Party, the liberal/moderate wing for Rocky and the conservative/right wing for the Gipper. They had both declared their interest early and this had led to a long awaited contest in NH in late March.

RFK made his first political speech in Washington on Feb 1 after a patriotic ceremony to commemorate the unfurling of the 58 star flag. In this speech he tied in the themes of his campaign to his brother’s linking of British and Irish statehood with the New Frontier, it earned him brownie points with the press and improved his image with the public, on both counts many had seen him as a head kicker for his brother. In short the speech had given him a presidential aura.

With the admission of the British Isles to the union nations with strong historical connections and trade connection to the UK also became interested in statehood idea. JFK responded with overtures to Canada, Australia and New Zealand, negotiations began with the President sending Hubert Humphrey to Canada, Robert McNamara to Australia and Ted Kennedy to New Zealand.  

End part II

[Polkergeist]

Hey Al,

Is Ireland the entire emerald isle or split into Eire and Ulster? For this exercise it might be wise to remain divided to get four Senate seat instead of two!

It'll remain partitioned as O'Neill wouldn't want to upset his base.

From a previous post it looks as if the "former" UK and Ireland combine for 16 Senators. Canada would nearly match that if each province became a state and might exceed that number depending on how the Yukon and NWT might be considered. How would that sit with the "former" UK and Ireland and how might that play out in Electoral College reform?

Yeah I was thinking that the atlantic provinces become one state.

But for the purposes of this TL we are looking for a Canadian to cover the great white north just like what Al is doing for the British Isles and for that matter we could give different parts of the US to peoplw who are knowlegdable about those areas.

[Polkergeist]

For the new posters on this thread thanks for your tips

Al if you want to cover Canada as well then you can have Canadian license.

Hughento, you can cover Australia and New Zealand if you'd like. Whenever an election rolls around all you have to do is bring in the results.

I'll post part 4 soon.

[Polkergeist]

Part III...

February 3rd 1968

Canadian Prime Minister, Lester B. Pearson, narrowly survives an assaination attempt by Quebec seperatists as he left Parliament Hill at 5 AM.
Pearson had initially been sceptical about the "Atlantic Plan", but changes his mind at some point in hospital.

February 4th 1968

Harold Wilson endorses Robert Kennedy's Presidential bid.
An opinion poll shows over 70% of the Canadian public is now in favour of Union with the United States of the Atlantic.

February 5th 1968

In a televised speech to the House of Commons, Pearson announces that a vote on joining the United States will by held on the February 12th.
The vote has to pass the Federal Parliament aand 2/3rd's of provincial assemblies.
The bulk of the Liberal party is in favour of the Union, the Progressive Conservative party is broadly in favour, the NDP announces that it wishes it's MP's/MLA's to abstain, Social Credit is in favour.
In Quebec, the ruling Union Nationale is strongly opposed to the Union while the opposition Liberals are strongly in favour. The leader of the newly formed Parti Québécois, René Lévesque, claims that an independent Quebec is the only answer... and when pressed by journalists on the possible union with the US, he refuses to comment.

---end of part III---

It looks like Quebec may not make it into the US?

[Polkergeist]

Ideas for Part Three...

1) Does RFK win the Democrat nomination?
2) Who wins in the GOP dogfight?
3) Will Wilson be chosen as the Democrat VP? (I'm thinking yes, as if RFK wins the primary, then the general and is then shot (he's a Kennedy dammit!) I could then do Wilson's sudden resignation...)
4) When does the Wallace-Powell ticket start?
5) Could someone give me a Scottish Labour politician from the '60's/70's who can knock off Home? This is important.
6) Race riots?
7) The Troubles? Or not?

1) He is the absolute front runner, I only put in Connally to show that there was southern discontentment as in OTL with the Democrats.

2)This one I'm in two minds, Rockefeller maybe because Goldwater was a disaster in 1964 and the GOP may be tempted to switch back to the moderate wing to give themseleves a chance. But Reagan as a historical figure is just too good to miss

3)Maybe... yeah.... OK. with the new expanded US there will need to be a British face on the ticket. But is ol' Harold electable in the US? As for RFK being shot  I'll think about it after the '68 election

4) Whenever Enoch Powell gives his rivers of blood speech then the ticket will get rolling.

6) In this TL race riots are still happening in America (i.e. Watts 1965) so with now more exposure due both sides of the pond being in the same media loop the UK could experience worse race riots.

7)Well as I understand it in 1968 the catholics in NI were discriminated against with less votes (something to do with 1 vote per household?)and segregation. I was thinking that the Catholics in NI could start a US Supreme Ct case that comes down in favour of them and this starts the ball rolling in NI.

BTW I've done some numbers, are these OK with you:
British Isles electoral votes '68
Anglia 42
Wessex 11
Mercia 26
Northumberland 36
Wales 9
Scotland 15
Ulster 6
Ireland 9

[Polkergeist]

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I think a really, really close primary is needed... decided by one state perhaps?

Well when nation can't make up its mind that usually what happens. Also in 1968 there weren't too many primaries only 15 I think. So it may be decided at the convention. BTW What do you think about British primaries?

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How could a pipe-puffing avuncualar folksy (in public) Yorkshireman not be electable?
The Wilson resignation has to come in somewhere though... maybe RFK has to resign because of a scandel?[/quote]

Teddy Kennedy had that car crash into a lake in '70. Any hint of White House interference with the investigation and there will be trouble.

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How does the 3rd of June 1968 sound?[/quote]

Perfect

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O.K
Which area goes up in flames first? Brixton or Bermondsey?[/quote]

Al, you decide

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Good idea
[/quote]

It's in the can

[Polkergeist]

What about Black Panthers ?

[Polkergeist]

Thats a good sketch. However where is Powell going to give his speech as there is no UK Parliament in this TL. He could give it in a state legislature I guess

[Polkergeist]

Part three later (If someone could write this from a US perspective....)

Hughento, that could take a while as the TL is currently in 1968, so don't hold your breath. However what you have written is a good TL in its own right.

[Polkergeist]

Part 4: Nomination & Canada.

With both major parties contests for the nomination, the campaign goes into full swing in New Hampshire in anticipation of the primary in that state on March 12. Both races are keenly fought especially the Republican race as there is no clear frontrunner.

The Parliaments of Canada both Federal and Provincial undertook a historic vote on Febuary 12 on whether to acceed to the United States. After passionate debate about Canada's past, present and future, the political consensus won out that Canada's successful trading future lay with customs free access to the North Atlantic Union that was now emerging.

The federal parliament and all provincial parliaments except Quebec vote to join the US. This easily passes the 2/3rds required for the vote to succeed. Negotiations begin with US Presidnetial envoy Hubert Humphrey over transition arrangements. However Quebec's parliament  does not vote on accession to the union, but rather votes to affirm the soverignty of the proivnce of Quebec. this is widely seen by political pundits as  a desire by the Provincal government to negotiate its own terms of union with the US.

While the economic and geo-political argument on admission to the US was accepted by the Canadian public there was still much public fear that with accession to the United States would threaten Canada's distinct culture on the North American continent.


After weeks of Campagining the Primary elections took place.In New Hampshire.........

Democrat
Robert Kennedy 74%
John Connally: 21%
Uncomitted: 5%  

Republican
Nelson Rockefeller 53%
Ronald Reagan 47%

The results confirmed RFK's hold on the American public (at least the liberal side of it). However for the GOP nomination, Ronald Reagan suprised many by coming close to carrying the New England state which many considered safe territory for GOP's Eastern Liberals and made Reagan a serious contender for the presidency.

[Polkergeist]

Part 5: The antipodes and Primaries

The next set of primaries was set of Wisconsin on April 2. The media had now gotten on the 'Gipper' express as the campaign tour bus cricrossed the state. Media polls had Reagan in front by double digits. His new momentum and folksy charm gave Reagan his lead.
On the Democrat side John Connally withdrew from campaigning actively in Wisconsin to concentrate on doing well in Pennsylvania on April 23.

Meanwhile in Canada, negotiations on transition arrangements had been completed with the federal Government. Individual statehood would be granted to all provinces except for Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island which would be federated together as one state. the name of the state is currently slated as Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island however this is set ot be changed by the new state legislature when it comes into effect. Admission of the new states is set down to occur on July 1 1968.

However the government of the province of Quebec is still holding out for special negotiations with the US. President Kennedy is inclined to intervene but is warned off it by the outgoing Canadian federal government.

However the Province itself is in a state of civil disturbance as populist pro-union supporters riot. Sporadic clashes with police have continued from mid-February until March 16 when the provincial government sets a March 31 deadline for the US to start direct talks with provincial government, if talks do not start by then, Quebec will go it alone. When violence flares up again as a result of the ultimatium, the provincial government responds heavy handedly killing several rioters. With events on the streets spiraling out of control a group of UN MP's defect to BQ on March 18 causing the government to lose its majority. The Liberals and BQ form an emergency coalition and accept the statehood terms negotated in Ottawa.

Despte trailing Reagan by 12 points in Wisconsin in the aftermath of NH, Nelson Rockefeller campaigned hard through out the state in an attempt tom quickly make up the difference. Rocky played on WI history as a progressive state and conrasted Reagan's new right credentials with the state progressive roots. The stragey worked with Rockfeller barnstorming the state and making up the deficit hoever on election day the race was too close too call. When the results came in that Tuesday night:

Republican
Nelson Rockefeller 51.3 %
Ronald Reagan 48.5%
Uncommitted  0.2%

Democrat
Robert Kennedy 64%
Uncommitted 24%
John Connally 12%

The Rockefeller win had kept him in the race however his crtiics claimed that Rocky only won with the help of croos-over Progessive Democrats which had no great importance in an effective uncontested primary.

With the Quebec situation resolved negotiations in Australia and New Zealand make progress after being bogged down in Australian constitutional technicalities. Both national governments are worried about the distance between themselves and Washington. Robert MacNamara offer to give Canberra capitol status to ease such worries. The New Zealand Government informs Ted Kennedy that NZ statehood is conditional on Australia also joining the union. Negotations look likely to collapse on April 3 when Indonesia explodes its first atomic bomb.......

Part 6 later

[Polkergeist]

Hey Al,
I'm doing the maps for this TL and for the states of England I'm using the following regions as the borders of the states. Tell me if I need to make changes

Wessex: South-west
Anglia: South-east, London
Midlands: East Midlands, West Midlands, East Anglia
Northumberland: Yorkshire and humber, North west and North.

I used this map for the regions:
http://www.graphicmaps.com/webimage/countrys/europe/special/ukreg.htm

[Polkergeist]

Part 7

On April 5 Martin Luther King was assassinated by James Earl Ray in Memphis. His death caused rioting in major American cities, which lasted several days and required President Kennedy to call out the National Guard to help quell.
The event was a deep blow to the civil rights movement, however Robert Kennedy’s spontaneous eulogy for MLK whilst campaigning in Pennsylvania further entrenched him as the favourite for the upcoming presidential election and further identified him as pro-civil rights.


The explosion of Indonesia’s first Atomic Bomb on April 3 had shocked the world. The US administration had not expected the development with the rise to power of Suharto in 1965, which had friendly relations with the West and was stridently anti-communist. However Suharto was first and foremost a nationalist. With the advent the new expanded US and likelihood of Australia and NZ admission in the union, this had spurred Suharto and the Indonesian military to restart their dormant program.

The reaction among Australia’s political leaders however was mixed. PM John Gorton was more inclined to develop Australia’s own atomic weapons to counter the advent of the Indonesian nuclear weaponry. Others in his Liberal-Country party coalition were much more inclined to join the United States. As for the Labor party, Opposition leader Whitlam was initially opposed to either course but realised that one would be necessary to protect the Australian continent. While the Democratic Labor Party was supportive of Australia joining the US.

PM Gorton addressed the House of Representatives on April 10 and stated that he would do whatever it took to protect Australia’s security. This was interpreted as implying Australia would construct her own atomic weapons. This alarmed the rest of the Western World, which was working to contain nuclear proliferation. President Kennedy at this time was also concerned about nuclear proliferation and was alarmed about the situation playing out in South-East Asia. As a result he started negotiations with Suharto and organised for a summit of ANZUS leaders in Melbourne for April 26.

However events in Canberra overtook these developments. In an effort to forestall the development of Australia’s atomic weapons. Labor MP Jim Cairns moved a motion on April 11 in the House to prevent Australia to acquire atomic weapons in the short term and open negotiations with Indonesia for that nation to abandon its nuclear program.  The motion split all parties. The impassioned debate took a twist when Minister for External Affairs Paul Hasluck moved to amened the motion so as to remove the plan for Indonesian negotiations and insert to protect Australia’s security under the American nuclear umbrella.  This swung several Liberal and Country Party MHR’s who were going to vote against the original motion and also some Labor MHR’s who were going to vote for the motion. As the amended motion gained momentum, PM Gorton and Deputy PM Jack McEwen of the Country party both said they would resign if the motion were passed. However despite the threat the amended motion was passed 68-55.   PM Gorton and Deputy PM McEwen carried through with their promises to resign. Governor-General Richard Casey took the extraordinary step of appointing Hasluck as Prime Minister before a Liberal party room vote for a new leader. G-G Casey cited the need for the continuity of Government in a time of national emergency for the quick appointment. On April 15 The Liberal Party room elected Paul Hasluck as its leader 57-25 over Treasurer William McMahon confirming his position. The Country Party on the same day unanimously elected Doug Anthony as its leader. PM Hasluck soon after announced that he would attend the ANZUS summit on April 26 with an open mind to joining the expanded US.


The primaries continued with a contest in Pennsylvania on April 23. Nelson Rockefeller’s comeback win in Wisconsin on April 2 had breathed new life into a faltering campaign. Rocky’s 20-point victory in the Anglia primary on April 16 had confirmed many political analysts opinions that Reagan’s polices were to right wing for voters in the British Isles which had 134 electoral votes at stake this November. As a result of the above perceptions and the fact that PA was home turf for the eastern establishment, Rockefeller started the campaigning in PA well in front.
As for the Dems this was seen as the last chance for John Connally to be seen as a credibile national candidate against RFK. However despite his best efforts the Texas Governor could not get political traction in the primary fight up against RFK whose personal approval ratings were at 70%

The results of the PA primary

Democrat
Robert Kennedy 69%
John Connally 31%

Republican
Nelson Rockefeller 61%
Ronald Reagan 39 %


Part 8 soon…

[Polkergeist]

Part 8

On April 24 the day after the PA primary, John Connally announced that he would end his campaign citing the inability to garner support outside the south. He said that he had no interest in being a purely sectional candidate at the convention. Whilst Connally endorsed RFK he warned about the growing liberalism within the Democratic Party and how it risked losing the South forever.

Governor of Alabama George Wallace announced his intention to run for President as an independent on April 25. With both of the major party front-runners being liberals, Governor Wallace decried the rampant liberalism in American life and stressed that he would be running his campaign on the platform of domestic law and order and states rights.

 The ANZUS Summit in Melbourne on April 26 between President Kennedy, Prime Minister Hasluck of Australia and Prime Minister Keith Holyoake of New Zealand went long into the night. It was not until 1 am the next day that the 3 leaders released a joint communiqué announcing that a statehood referendum would go ahead in both nations on June 7. If the referendum were successful then the US would provide immediate nuclear protection for both nations. Both PM’s went on TV the next day to announce their support for joining the US. As with Canada, trade issues also weighed heavily on both leader’s minds fearing that they would be locked out from the British market with US tariffs, but the security issue was what had tipped the scales. However as Australia required a referendum to amend their constitution a referendum was required to join the US. Initial polls suggested that the yes vote was well in front.

The next primary was slated for Massachusetts on April 30, the primary however was a non-event with only one serious contender left in the Democratic race and Ronald Reagan preferring to skip another eastern primary and concentrate on the May 7 primaries of Indiana and Ohio.  Those states saw heavy campaigning by Reagan. A month ago he was an even chance of garnering the nomination but now was fighting to stay in the race after heavy defeats in PA and AN (Anglia). These conservative states were fertile ground for a Reagan insurgent comeback. With the latest polls showing George Wallace running between 15-20% this was attributed to public concern about law and order. Reagan jumped on board speaking about his support for tougher sentences and the death penalty.  This paid dividends on May 7:

The results of the IN primary

Republican
Ronald Reagan 58 %
Nelson Rockefeller 42%

The results of OH primary
Republican
Ronald Reagan 56 %
Nelson Rockefeller 44%

Rockefeller also carried the DC primary by 34-points. However, May 7 put Reagan back in the race as a serious contender. Polls showed that in a hypothetical match-up Reagan could take between 5 to 8 points of support off George Wallace. The next set of primaries set for May 14 saw races in NE and WV. Rockefeller refused to be drawn to a showdown in Nebraska so campaign in WV where he had a chance of winning. However events were to intervene.

Students in France had been protesting through May against the government and had come close to toppling it, this inspired American radicles to start their own protests in New York where they occupied and shut down Columbia University from May 10 for one week, this inspired other isolated riots from radical groups in NYC. Rockefeller who was Governor of NY called out the police to address the situation but the students and radical groups could not be  quelled easily. This spilled over in the law and order debate, which saw Reagan make a late dash to WV to try to cause an upset. As the results came in on May 14 it became clear……

Results
NE
Ronald Reagan 71%
Nelson Rockefeller 29%

WV
Ronald Reagan 52%
Nelson Rockefeller 48%

……that the Reagan momentum would go on.

May of 1968 saw the American public become aware of the troubles in Northern Ireland for the first time. A growing civil rights movement in Northern Ireland highlighted discrimination that was faced by Catholics. This included discrimination in public housing and gerrymandering of  political boundaries to disadvantage the Catholic community. The leaders of the civil rights movement John Hume and Austin Currie met with President Kennedy in Washington on May 16 to present him with a petition of grievances with the state government of Ulster. President Kennedy accepted the petition and expressed sympathy with their plight, but told them the leaders that they should go through the courts to rectify their grievances as present laws and constitutional safeguards were adequate for their cause.

On May 28 primaries were held in OR and FL. Rockefeller after the WV debacle need a circuit breaker to stop Reagan’s growing momentum. As FL was a southern state that Reagan would romp home in,  Rocky targeted OR. While OR was west coast and nominally Reagan territory. It was also home to a significant liberal constituency averse to the new right policies of Reagan, with the Democrat race sewn up; Rocky was eying off the significant Ind and Dem cross over votes. In the day preceding the primary, Rockefeller denounced Reagan as a zealot and extremist. These comments tipped the race in OR however they alienated the growing new right constituency that was growing in the GOP.

Results of May 28 Primary
FL
Republican
Ronald Reagan 66%
Nelson Rockefeller 34%

OR
Republican
Nelson Rockefeller 55%
Ronald Reagan 45%

Many commentators now looked to the CA primary on June 4 which looked like shoe in for Reagan but now was looking vulnerable to liberal backlash.

Part 9 later.

[Polkergeist]

Canadian EV's in 1968

AB:6
BC:7
MB:4
NB:3
NF:3
NS:4
ON:19
QB:16
SK:4

Total ev: 758  

[Polkergeist]

Part 9
June 1968

GOP Nomination
Nelson Rockefeller's fightback in OR had curtailed the Reagan momentum and spurred an unlikely contest in Reagan's home state of California. The campaigning in the week before was frantic as both candidates travelled across the state stumping for votes. Rocky kept with his winning formula of portraying Reagan as an extremist and as a person who would take the US too far to the right. However unlike in OR, Reagan fired back, he claimed that Rockefeller was too much like a Democrat and that his record as Governor of NY showed that. His tendency for large-scale programs for NY showed that he was in fact a supporter of big government, Reagan claimed.

The fight in CA was so intense that both candidates neglected other races in SD and NJ, although GOP primary voters were affected by the national media coverage of the CA primary.

When the day came Reagan's home state advantage proved decisive.

GOP Primary results of June 4:

CA
Ronald Reagan: 51.7%
Nelson Rockefeller: 48.3%

SD
Ronald Reagan: 58%
Nelson Rockefeller: 42%

NJ
Nelson Rockefeller: 63%
Ronald Reagan: 37%

The CA result was a victory of sorts for both men. Reagan had turned back the Rockefeller challenge in his home state whilist Rocky had done extrordinarily well in the home state of his opponent. The SD result confirmed Reagan's hold on conservatives but also revealed the distrust conservatives held for Rockefeller after his savage campaign against Reagan in the last 2 weeks. The NJ results was expected in an eastern GOP liberal stronghold.

Both candidates contested the final primary of the season In Illinois on June 11. It had now become clear that for the GOP presidential nomination the primaries had been inconclusive. But the depths to which this contest had been competitive between the two men meant that they both contested the IL primary to extract any small popular legitamacy that they could get for a race that would not deliver either man the nomination.

Rockefeller concentrated on Reagan's foreign policy stances which he derided as 'dangerous for their belligerence' Reagan countered by saying that  Rockefeller was 'soft on the Soviets'. In the end Rockefeller eeked out a narrow victory

IL Primary
Nelson Rockefeller 51.1%
Ronald Reagan 48.9%

Both candidates without a knockout blow now took their campaigns to the back rooms of the state party machines to secure the nomination.

Australia and New Zealand

The referendums on June 7 were sucessfull in both nations by similar margins; 58-42 in New Zealand and 60-40 in Australia with yes votes carrying all states.  The prime reason that won the day was the increased security admission to the US would bring.  The new states would be admitted on 1 August.

Part 10 later

[Polkergeist]

 Each Australian state will be admited as an American state. The ACT will become a federal district as it would become a place for suitable federal government offices. NT would become a territory.

As for British colonies they would become territories and those who wishes independence could go and those who wanted to stay. The larger colonies could become states, for example Hong Kong.