German Elections & Politics

[Polkergeist]

I have a question about overhang seats.

I understand that if a party wins more first vote constituency seats than their second vote entitlement of seats in any state/lander, then there will be extra compensatory seats for all other parties awarded to their lander list.

If that is so, doesn't that mean if a lander has an accidental overhang then that lander will get more seats then they are entitled to.

Or do I have this wrong?

[Polkergeist]

No. It's quite complicated....

Thank you for the explanation. It is much appreciated.

[Polkergeist]

Thanks when I think of MMP, I always think of how New Zealand uses it given I am more familiar with their system. NZ is a unitary state and they just let overhangs.... just hang there.

On your other point, does the FDP not run for constituency seats at all?

No. It's quite complicated....

Thank you for the explanation. It is much appreciated.

There are two more things to be added, in case you haven't known them yet:
You can vote for different parties for Erststimme and Zweitstimme. That's what the FDP tried to convince their potential supporters of: Erststimme CDU/CSU, Zweitstimme FDP; for a long time quite successful, the last time they failed miserably with that strategy.
Furthermore, independent candidates can only run for a direct mandate or be a member of a party list, but they cannot run for second votes.

[Polkergeist]

If we get these vote-shares next Sunday are we heading towards an epic overhang/compensatory seat blowout?

ZDF poll for next Sunday's Bayern state election:

Only 50% of voters say they have made up their minds so far about which party to vote for, an unusually low score (which could still lead to some surprises) !

[Polkergeist]

About a week ago, election.de estimated the total seats for the Bavaria Landtag election at 217.

http://www.election.de/img/maps/by18_prognose_sitze_181008.png

This would put the ovehang/compensation expansion at 37, a 20% increase.

Have there been larger proportional increases than 20% before to compensate for overhangs?

[Polkergeist]

2.) If a direct candidate from Party X theoretically wins his constituency (= "Stimmkreis"), but his party X fails to meet the statewide 5% threshold, that candidate loses his seat and has to hand it over to the runner-up.

Have there been any famous and controversial cases where this has occurred?

Does this apply to independent candidates?

4.) Unlike in federal elections and most other state elections, the party lists aren't "closed", but "open"; i.e. you can give your second vote to a certain person on the candidates' list and therefore change the predefined order of the candidates. Only Bremen and Hamburg offer that option also.

I understand that candidates who run in constituencies and also region-wide for the second vote, they;

• are not on the regional second-vote ballot in their constituency
• when ranking the elected members from their party's second vote list, have their first constituency votes included*

* assuming the candidate did not win their constituency


Have I got this right?

[Polkergeist]

Does this apply to independent candidates?

Independent candidates are not allowed in Bavarian state elections.
Only political parties and voters' associations can take part in those election, and they have to run a direct candidate in at least one Stimmkreis in an administrative region in order to be able to run a party list in that region.

Thank you for your answers, I appreciate it!

Are the Free Voters of Bavaria a party or a voter association?

Are there any other voter associations?