State Legislative Chambers in LA, MS, and VA

[ScottM]

Mississippi should be a good state for the GOP this year. There's a redistricting battle going on here that will most likely damage the Democrats severely. House Speaker Billy McCoy is trying to circumvent the State Constitution by refusing conference with the Senate and taking the issue to the justice department after the map proposed by the Democrats in the House failed to pass the Senate. We may wind up having legislative elections in back to back years if the issue isn't settled. But, McCoy is damaging his party with the attitude he is taking toward the process. A year or so ago, the House seemed out of reach for the GOP. Now it looks very winnable.

[ScottM]

Mississippi should be a good state for the GOP this year. There's a redistricting battle going on here that will most likely damage the Democrats severely. House Speaker Billy McCoy is trying to circumvent the State Constitution by refusing conference with the Senate and taking the issue to the justice department after the map proposed by the Democrats in the House failed to pass the Senate. We may wind up having legislative elections in back to back years if the issue isn't settled. But, McCoy is damaging his party with the attitude he is taking toward the process. A year or so ago, the House seemed out of reach for the GOP. Now it looks very winnable.

Excellent post.  

Clear, factual, and logical.

Actually, there is one other thing I should probably add. I don't know why I didn't think to put this in before. The redistricting battle may well be what determines the outcome of the House elections this year in Mississippi. If McCoy gets his way, that may be enough to hold the House for the Dems. But, if the GOP wins this battle or they run in current districts this year and run in new districts next year, that makes things considerably easier for the GOP.

Someone may find this link interesting: http://www.scribd.com/doc/50413003/Malone-Mathis-Story.  In this article, a sitting Democrat member of the House actually admits that he had the lines of his district on the new map so that he wouldn't have an opponent in the upcoming elections. There's been a lot of, shall we say, curious features about the House Democrats' map. Such as, districts in the Delta region which has lost population roughly equivalent to two House districts being stretched a bit to the east so that region wouldn't lose seats, while the Hattiesburg area, which is growing and is much more Republican-leaning, isn't gaining seats as would be expected.

Here are the current and House-propsed maps if anyone is interested:

Current: http://www.scribd.com/doc/49975345/2002-House-map
Proposed: http://www.scribd.com/doc/49975251/House-2011-proposal

Edit: BTW, a lot of information about the redistricting battle can be found here: http://majorityinms.com/. I know some will probably complain about the site being Republican-leaning, but they have been keeping close tabs on the process. If anyone has any interest in the subject, you can probably at least find some links you'll find interesting.

[ScottM]

Can't really say until the new maps come out, but Mississippi will probably be tough, since they're pushing to have at least 1/3rd of the districts in the House be majority-black. Louisiana will probably be easier to accomplish, since the Democrats are losing seats in New Orleans and the Republicans are gaining them in the Baton Rouge suburbs.

My gut says we won't have a new map in Mississippi this year. I think there's a high likelihood that we'll have legislative elections in back-to-back years. I think the current House maps give the GOP a good chance to take control of the House, due in large part to the recent actions of Speaker McCoy. But, if they can't come to an agreement this year and run in the current districts, we won't see the official new maps until next year.