Kerry Pulls Campaign Ads From Four States: AZ, AR, LA, MO

[CARLHAYDEN]

Your analysis is pretty good.

There were only six states which Bush carried in 2000 which Kerry had a reasonable chance to carry in 2004.

Those six states are:

Florida
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio
West Virginia

The simple math indicates that if Kerry is to win outright he must carry as least one of the following:

Florida
Missouri
Ohio

That presumes he carries New Hampshire and West Virginia AND doesn't lose a state carried by Gore in 2000.

Having written off Missouri (where his chances were dim) he must now concentrate on Florida and Ohio.

More importantly, he really cann't afford to lose a state of any significant size (or combination of small states) carried by Gore in 2000.

Right now it looks like he is in trouble in:

Iowa
Maine
Michigan
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

Kerry is like a poker player who was dealt a hand with four cards in sequence and one not in sequence, who discards the one NOT in sequence in the hopes of filling a straight (not too likely).

[CARLHAYDEN]

Do you have any polls from Vermont?  It seems like it is still Dean and Sanders country.

I know you disagree with me, but I would say that Bush has already won if he takes Washington, Michigan, New Jersey, or ME1.

I agree with your analysis of the states Kerry has a shot in (Although MO seems out now), but disagree with the Gore 2000 ones that will be close in a tied election.

Iowa
ME2
New Mexico
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Minnesota (maybe)

First to Iowa.

Not only are several reputable polls showing Bush ahead, there is also a reason for this.  In the past four presidential elections, the Democrats had an effective GOTV effort in that state while the Republicans didn't.  This year the Republicans are working Iowa, and are likely to win.

Second, Maine.

The hunters rights initiative in that state is really effective for Bush.

Also, once again, the Republican GOTV effort.

Third, Michigan.

The marriage issue on the ballot will help Bush there.

Also, once again, the GOTV drive.

Fourth, New Jersey.

The Democrats are really killing themselves there.

Again, GOTV,

BTW, several polls show it very close.

Fifth, New Mexico,

Several polls show it slipping to Bush.

Again, GOTV.

Sixth, Oregon.

Gap in registration closer than in 2000,

Measure 36 (marriage)

Several polls showing Bush slightly ahead.

Once again, Republican GOTV drive.

Seventh, Pennsylvania

Several polls show Bush with a slight lead.

This was the state where Gore had his most effective GOTV drive in 2000 (not as effective this year for Demos).

Republican GOTV drive in effect this year.

Eighth, Vermont,

Just about everyone assumes that Vermont is some left wing paradise.  The truth of the matter is that the Republicans in the Green Mountain state have for years run up the white flag before the political battle began.

They themselves were surprised when the electorate voted a number of Democrats out of office in the state legislature for their actions.

Ninth, Washington

A number of polls show it very close (some with Bush ahead, some with Kerry ahead).
The voters are irked about the abolition of the Blanket Primary.

The Boeing workers are anti-French (a la the Airbus competition).

Much of the state (even in the Puget Sound) are a little tired of the extremists in the Democrat party.

Tenth, Wisconsin,

A number of polls show Bush ahead.

GOTV.

Eleventh,

Don't see Bush carrying Minnesota (but I could be wrong).

[CARLHAYDEN]

Ok, lets look at some polls.

New Jersey (Quinnipiac poll conducted 9/16-29)

Oregon (Mason-Dixon poll conducted 0/14-16)

Washington (Moore Information poll conducted 9/29-20)

There hasn't been a poll in Michigan since the Marriage issue was put on the ballot.

With respect to Vermont, the losses the Democrats sustained were NOT simply individual races, but races decided on the gay union vote.

Finally, while the polls on the surface look reasonable for Bush in Minnesota, below the surface it doesn't look as good.

[CARLHAYDEN]

What's bad for Bush in Minnesota?

The Republican victories in Minnesota in the past few years have been as a result of obnoxious overbearing meanspirited incompetence by the Democrats.

They have had a lot of that beaten out of them.

Fundamentally, Minnesota is a left-leaning Democrat state.

The Democrats are hungry to take it back, and are avoiding making more stupid mistakes there.