Virginia 2009 Megathread

[CARLHAYDEN]

What is interesting is that in Virginia both major parties nominated candidates who would be good Governors while in New Jersey both major parties nominated slimebags.

Seems to say something about the political culture of the two states.

[CARLHAYDEN]

What is interesting is that in Virginia both major parties nominated candidates who would be good Governors while in New Jersey both major parties nominated slimebags.

Seems to say something about the political culture of the two states.

Actually Christie is the one that put 130 political slimebags in jail, but nice try.

Christie prosecuted small-time Democrat New Jersey slimebags, while making sure his brother did not get charged for doing the same things at the same employer which resulted in multiple convictions.

Oh, and BTW, what about that politically connected "no bid" contract Christie gave out while U.S. Attorney for New Jersey?

Nice try, but the facts get out.

[CARLHAYDEN]

So PPP, SUSA, and now WAPO have shown a Republican party ID advantage among likely voters, and you still don't believe it? Come on dude.

I don't believe GOP +7.  I'd be willing to buy GOP +2, but nothing more.

There is no doubt but that the Democrats nominated their strongest candidate, and he probably would be trailing by two points if the national Democrats weren't going absolutely nuts.  Deeds is paying for the nutty actions of the Obamanations.

[CARLHAYDEN]

WASHINGTON (CNN) — The National Rifle Association endorsed Republican Bob McDonnell in the Virginia governor's race on Monday — an about-face for the gun rights group, which backed Democrat Creigh Deeds over McDonnell when the two men last faced off in a statewide race four years ago.

Deeds, who had interviewed for the NRA endorsement along with McDonnell, quickly countered by announcing that he had earned the backing of the Virginia Firefighters Association, which represents roughly 6,500 paramedics and firefighters throughout the commonwealth.

But the NRA endorsement is likely the headline-grabber of the day, due to the state's evolving relationship with firearms and the NRA's change-of-heart about the candidate it once supported.

Deeds, a state Senator from rural Bath County and a longtime supporter of gun rights, won the NRA's backing in 2005 when the two men were running for Attorney General. McDonnell won that race by just 323 votes, the narrowest margin of victory ever in a Virginia statewide race.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Clarus Research Group:

McDonnell: 42%
Deeds: 37%

10-14 September 2009, 600 registered voters, 4% margin of error

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/va_mcdonnell_42_deeds_37_claru.php

I don't really know what to say; I can't find the sub-numbers, so I don't know the breakdown, and 21% undecided is a bit surprising.  I'll call it an outlier, maybe 48-42 McDonnell at this point, give or take.

Several points.

First, Clarus is NOT one of the better polling outfits (watch what Mason-Dixon says).

Second, its Registered NOT Likely voters. 

So, in conclusion, don't give it too much weight.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Posted: Thursday, September 17, 2009 2:28 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: 2009
From NBC's Mark Murray

McLEAN, Va. -- In today's debate here, moderator David Gregory also asked Democrat Creigh Deeds about whether race was behind some of the protests and opposition aimed at President Obama.

Deeds answered in the affirmative, saying that there is a "hint of racism that is crystal clear."

[CARLHAYDEN]

By Jim Nolan
Richmond Times-Dispatch
Published: August 12, 2009

Democratic gubernatorial candidate R. Creigh Deeds today said that if the General Assembly passed a bill to fund the state’s transportation needs that included an increase in taxes, he would sign it.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Here's what one of the former Democrat Governor's has to say about Deeds:

http://virginiatomorrow.com/2009/09/24/l-douglas-wilder-statement-on-the-2009-governors-race/

[CARLHAYDEN]

New PPP poll:

McDonnell: 48%
Deeds: 43%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_929717.pdf

And Sen. Mark Warner with a spot for Deeds:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Qm42PeCJ4o

Former Gov. Linwood Holton (R) also endorsed Deeds.

Deed is doing really well in Virginia.  He has gained in every single poll that's come out.  He was out of striking distance about a month ago and now he is within range.  I think he could definately win this one if he gets some high turnouts in favorable areas.  Of coure Mcdonnel would have to also lose some suburban counties. 

First, welcome to the forum.

Second, no, Deeds has NOT gained in every single poll that's come out.   Here's a recent one from SUSA:

In the race for Governor, Republican Bob McDonnell today defeats Democrat Creigh Deeds by 14 points, 55% to 41%. Compared to identical SurveyUSA polls released four and nine weeks ago, little has changed. McDonnell receives majorities from both men and women, young and old, rich and poor, college graduates and those who did not attend college. Deeds leads by 3:1 among African Americans, by 7:1 among Democrats and liberals, and by 14 points among moderates. McDonnell and Deeds tie in Northeastern Virginia; McDonnell leads in the rest of the state.

Third, given your moniker, are you aware that several weeks ago Deeds came out for choice, well, at least with regards to abortion?

[CARLHAYDEN]

That poll came out yesterday afternoon.  I made my comments yesterday morning before the poll came out.  At that time every poll that was in the highlighted section on real clear politics (Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, RK2000, etc) showed gains for Deeds.  Right now I don't put much weight in the new poll, but I will have to if others come out with the same results. 

Don't all Democrats usually come out for 'choice?'

First, Rasmussen is a very good survey research firm, whereas Quinnipiac is a mediocre pollster and  R2K is a lousy pollster.

Second,  timing is very important.  The latter poll I cited had time for the public to react to Deeds equivocation on increasing taxes.

Third, no, most Democrat candidates are opposed to choice, except for abortion. 

Fourth, so are you saying you will support any candidate nominated on the Democrat party line irrespective of his/her position on abortion?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Umengus,

First, Rasmussen has a proven track record.

Second, CNN retains ORC to do polls for it (it does not do its own surveys).  Admission: I worked for ORC many years ago.

Third, I adressed my point about abortion to another poster whose moniker implied he was for life but supported Deeds.

Dem4Life

PEW commissions Princeton Associates to do its polls.  Not suprisingly, many of the people at Princeton Associates are former ORC employees.

To both of you,

The key Virginia poll (other than the actual election) to watch is Mason-Dixon.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Umengus,

First, the prior Rasmussen survey you cited, which indicated a slight lead for McDonnell was probably an outlier.

Second, given the margin of error, the McDonnell lead could well have been five or more.

Third, remember that one time out of twenty the MoE will be exceeded.

Fourth, before Deeds put his foot in his mouth about taxes, there is some reason to believe that he was reducing McDonnell's lead.

Fifth, there is still more than a month until the election and unforseen events could significantly impact the race.

Finally, absent such unforseen events significantly helping Deeds, McDonnel is a likely winner.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I'd say the most telling thing right now is that McDonnell has dumped the pretense of running a positive campaign and is going 100% on Generic Republican Attack Mode: "THE DEMOCRATS WILL RAISE YOUR TAXES!!!11". If he were really up by 14 like SUSA says, he wouldn't need to be doing that.

Deeds did a Mondale by admitting that he wants increased taxes.

[CARLHAYDEN]

the notion of the margin of error doesn't existe when polls are reweighted.

It would be interessant to reweighting all polls with a gop +2 advantage. And I think that the result will be always +- the same.
[/quote]

I said absolutely NOTHING about the "weighting" of polls, but rather noted that there is a Margin of Error (based on sample size), which could well have explained the perceived close poll.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Is Bloomberg just trying to get me to vote for Thompson just to stop this crap?

Why not Christopher or Dobrian?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Stick a fork in Deeds, he's done.