2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[SvenssonRS]

Wow, Miller wasn't kidding when he mentioned in an interview that polling is always wildly inaccurate in Alaska. Almost half the precincts are in...and his lead is increasing.

It's still too close for comfort though. I'm trying not to get my hopes up too high in the event that horrible woman makes a comeback.

I'm giving Murkowski until halfway through to pull a comeback, myself. If she doesn't manage that, as far as I'm concerned, she's done.

[SvenssonRS]

You know, in hindsight, I really wish Alaska had more than one county.

[SvenssonRS]

Yesss! Murkowski is making a comeback in votes.

Not that much of one, though. She still hasn't gone past the gap they started with(550).

[SvenssonRS]

Yesss! Murkowski is making a comeback in votes.

Not that much of one, though. She still hasn't gone past the gap they started with(550).

Not on the most recent dump, which came in part from the Mat-Su Valley:

With 218/438:
Miller, Joe             32275   51.43%   Miller +2296
Murkowski, Lisa   29979   47.77%   

I'm calling it prematurely. She's done.

[SvenssonRS]

Yesss! Murkowski is making a comeback in votes.

Not that much of one, though. She still hasn't gone past the gap they started with(550).

Not on the most recent dump, which came in part from the Mat-Su Valley:

With 218/438:
Miller, Joe             32275   51.43%   Miller +2296
Murkowski, Lisa   29979   47.77%   

I'm calling it prematurely. She's done.

I'd never call a close Alaska race without significant numbers from the Bush.

First one I've ever paid attention to, so I'm learning.

[SvenssonRS]

I'm glad to see Svensson has dropped the rather comical facade and adopted the correct avatar.

...you are a pathetic individual if you dropped into this thread just to say that.

[SvenssonRS]

No it's just something I noticed while browsing the results.

So, you just now noticed that I'm anti-establishment. That took you a while, Red.

[SvenssonRS]

LOL, protest the establishment by joining the party of George W. Bush! The sad thing is that appears to be a common belief among teabaggers.

I protest the establishment by supporting candidates that aren't of the establishment. End of. Now leave me alone.

Oh, and George Bush isn't president any more. Just thought I'd put that out there, since you don't seem to know.

[SvenssonRS]

Well, I shall sit here and whistle patiently while waiting for the next vote dump.

[SvenssonRS]

New Alaska Dump (288/438):

Miller, Joe              43458   51.32%   Miller +2880
Murkowski, Lisa   40578   47.92%   

Looks like more of the Mat-Su came in since the last CARDS report, as well as some more of the Bush:

Overall                   65.75% of Precincts In

SE AK                   86.00%
Fairbanks/Interior   90.91%
Mat-Su                   94.12%
Anchorage           97.46%
Kenai/Kodiak           73.68%
Bush                          13.99%

Looks like Bush is steadily failing to change the race. I still call Murkowski done for.

And I'm probably leaving in 20 minutes, so this is going to have to wait until tomorrow for me.

[SvenssonRS]

Well, that was a thrilling night. I bid adieu to Murkowski, and bid myself to bed.

A good night, Cinyc.

[SvenssonRS]

Doesn't look like nine precincts and the absentees are going to save Murkowski. Best she can hope for is a recount, and with the gaps there's consistently been between her and Miller, I don't see that having much of an effect.

[SvenssonRS]

Unfortunately for you, yucky Murkowski cannot run as an independent, due to the fact that Alaska's independent filing deadline is long since past.

Good. That's one less Liebermanned candidacy to ruin another election.

[SvenssonRS]

Can Miller win a general election or is he crazy like Angle?

He's basically Alaska's Mike Lee. He's far to the right, but intelligent enough that you'd never be able to tell. I can tell he's nowhere near as gaffe-prone as Angle - he's just not dumb enough to keep running his mouth like a maniac.

[SvenssonRS]

Why don't the AP just call Alaska?

[SvenssonRS]

I think it would be a good move. It could help the Libertarians to break through the electoral barrier if she became the first elected Libertarian senator.

I honestly doubt we'll see much more of Murkowski if the absentees sink her. It's a bit late to be running a campaign like that, and there are very, very, VERY few moderates in Alaska anyway, so she wouldn't have much a vote base.

[SvenssonRS]

Well, look at that. Fun fact: the guy Murkowski was nearly embarrassed by in 2004 was also named Miller.

[SvenssonRS]

Believe or not, but my GREAT CRAZY friend, joao queiroz moneteiro (a crazy communist from manaus, amazonas) predicted that there would be a libertarian senator after 2010 elections, and probably from a state like vermont, alaska or utah (could bennett run as a libertarian?). I answered that it woul NEVER happen hahahahahaha...

And it still won't. Alaska voted Murkowski out fair and square; if she runs as a third party candidate, she'll just look like another Lieberman, and I can tell you the country's had enough of those.

[SvenssonRS]

And so it ends. Let the irony be known: Frank got taken down by Palin, Lisa got taken down by Palin's endorsee.

[SvenssonRS]

I'm really, really hoping that Miller pulls through.  This is IMO the second most important Senatorial primary this year for the future of our country, after Kentucky GOP.

Why do you care if a generic Republican wins?

Miller isn't a generic Republican.

Yes he is, but anyways she shouldn't concede yet when there are spoiled ballots to count still. If she does, she better do everything she can to ruin Miller's chances of winning. That might be endorsing McAdams or running a write-in campaign, but if this country is to have a future, the Tea Party needs to be destroyed.

I can just slightly understand Sink, but this is just ridiculous. Miller is the type of Tea Partyier you would encourage. You can't "Suppress" a movement like the Tea Party. You try they will consume you. The best way is to tame and incorporate them. That means accepting Lee and Miller into the party. If you can't accept them, then there will be no ground to argue that Hatch, Snowe, Collins, Lugar or Castle belong either. Big tent cuts both ways.

My advice: don't bother reasoning with Redco. His logic makes no sense whatsoever.

[SvenssonRS]

I'm really, really hoping that Miller pulls through.  This is IMO the second most important Senatorial primary this year for the future of our country, after Kentucky GOP.

Why do you care if a generic Republican wins?

Miller isn't a generic Republican.

Yes he is, but anyways she shouldn't concede yet when there are spoiled ballots to count still. If she does, she better do everything she can to ruin Miller's chances of winning. That might be endorsing McAdams or running a write-in campaign, but if this country is to have a future, the Tea Party needs to be destroyed.

I can just slightly understand Sink, but this is just ridiculous. Miller is the type of Tea Partyier you would encourage. You can't "Suppress" a movement like the Tea Party. You try they will consume you. The best way is to tame and incorporate them. That means accepting Lee and Miller into the party. If you can't accept them, then there will be no ground to argue that Hatch, Snowe, Collins, Lugar or Castle belong either. Big tent cuts both ways.

My advice: don't bother reasoning with Redco. His logic makes no sense whatsoever.

It won't sound illogical when the Republicans end up blowing their chances of winning back congress this fall because of the small group of billionaires and special interest groups that they are encouraging to fund the tea party. BTW if you are such a big fan of Miller, why aren't you singing the praises of O'Donnell who is just as much wacky and gaffey?

Sorry, when did we bring Sharron Angle into this? Miller is actually a respectable man - one of maybe two or three Tea Partiers this cycle who I can say that about. He will be a better senator than Murkowski ever was in the course of six years. She had that seat handed to her by her father and proceeded to use it to become one of the icons of everything terrible about the Republican Party - neoconservatism, whoring out to big oil, political selfishness, etc. The Murkowski family is a plague on Alaska and the Senate, and it's well done that their influence over the state is dead forever.

One candidate lost, Red. It's politics. sh**t happens.

[SvenssonRS]

I'm really, really hoping that Miller pulls through.  This is IMO the second most important Senatorial primary this year for the future of our country, after Kentucky GOP.

Why do you care if a generic Republican wins?

Miller isn't a generic Republican.

Yes he is, but anyways she shouldn't concede yet when there are spoiled ballots to count still. If she does, she better do everything she can to ruin Miller's chances of winning. That might be endorsing McAdams or running a write-in campaign, but if this country is to have a future, the Tea Party needs to be destroyed.

I can just slightly understand Sink, but this is just ridiculous. Miller is the type of Tea Partyier you would encourage. You can't "Suppress" a movement like the Tea Party. You try they will consume you. The best way is to tame and incorporate them. That means accepting Lee and Miller into the party. If you can't accept them, then there will be no ground to argue that Hatch, Snowe, Collins, Lugar or Castle belong either. Big tent cuts both ways.

My advice: don't bother reasoning with Redco. His logic makes no sense whatsoever.

It won't sound illogical when the Republicans end up blowing their chances of winning back congress this fall because of the small group of billionaires and special interest groups that they are encouraging to fund the tea party. BTW if you are such a big fan of Miller, why aren't you singing the praises of O'Donnell who is just as much wacky and gaffey?

Sorry, when did we bring Sharron Angle into this? Miller is actually a respectable man - one of maybe two or three Tea Partiers this cycle who I can say that about. He will be a better senator than Murkowski ever was in the course of six years. She had that seat handed to her by her father and proceeded to use it to become one of the icons of everything terrible about the Republican Party - neoconservatism, whoring out to big oil, political selfishness, etc. The Murkowski family is a plague on Alaska and the Senate, and it's well done that their influence over the state is dead forever.

One candidate lost, Red. It's politics. sh**t happens.

Right so America loses a valuable voice in the senate that has actually worked to solve important issues such as giving health care coverage to uninsured children and putting us on a path to energy independence, and will likely be replaced by a hyper partisan Palin clone that will be unwilling to get anything done the last two years of Obama's term. Sorry sounds like the country will be in a worse off place unless Murkowski endorses McAdams, runs a write-in, or meets with the Libertarians and agrees to make concessions to them if she is their nominee. This isn't turning out to be another 1994. In 1994 Moderates, Neo-Cons, Paleo-Cons, and Libertarian Conservatives actually worked together to accomplish a common goal of ousting Democratic control of congress. The Republicans are plagued by infighting, Alaska, Colorado, Florida, New York, etc., that is severely compromising their chances this fall.

I find the idea that the Republicans are failing a bit hard to believe, Red, I'm sorry. Have you paid attention to polling in the last three months? It's almost a straight flood of blue numbers. It's a well done thing that the Tea Party is winning only in the states where they can actually win a general election, isn't it? Where have they won this year? Utah, Kentucky, Nevada, Alaska, Colorado, some assorted house districts in which they can easily win anyway...why are you even complaining about that? The only reason they they even exist in New York is because that state's GOP has been effectively KIA for years now, and I suspect it is going to remain that way for a long time.

Honestly, I think you're seeing a different Murkowski to the one I am. She was a consistent warmonger, was pathetically weak on the disaster of an HCR bill, had terrible environmental policies...how are we losing a good voice in the Senate? Honestly, tell me how? Miller, at least, wants us out of the joke-frigging-tastic wars we're in. I'd call that one hell of an improvement.

[SvenssonRS]

I'm really, really hoping that Miller pulls through.  This is IMO the second most important Senatorial primary this year for the future of our country, after Kentucky GOP.

Why do you care if a generic Republican wins?

Miller isn't a generic Republican.

Yes he is, but anyways she shouldn't concede yet when there are spoiled ballots to count still. If she does, she better do everything she can to ruin Miller's chances of winning. That might be endorsing McAdams or running a write-in campaign, but if this country is to have a future, the Tea Party needs to be destroyed.

I can just slightly understand Sink, but this is just ridiculous. Miller is the type of Tea Partyier you would encourage. You can't "Suppress" a movement like the Tea Party. You try they will consume you. The best way is to tame and incorporate them. That means accepting Lee and Miller into the party. If you can't accept them, then there will be no ground to argue that Hatch, Snowe, Collins, Lugar or Castle belong either. Big tent cuts both ways.

My advice: don't bother reasoning with Redco. His logic makes no sense whatsoever.

It won't sound illogical when the Republicans end up blowing their chances of winning back congress this fall because of the small group of billionaires and special interest groups that they are encouraging to fund the tea party. BTW if you are such a big fan of Miller, why aren't you singing the praises of O'Donnell who is just as much wacky and gaffey?

Sorry, when did we bring Sharron Angle into this? Miller is actually a respectable man - one of maybe two or three Tea Partiers this cycle who I can say that about. He will be a better senator than Murkowski ever was in the course of six years. She had that seat handed to her by her father and proceeded to use it to become one of the icons of everything terrible about the Republican Party - neoconservatism, whoring out to big oil, political selfishness, etc. The Murkowski family is a plague on Alaska and the Senate, and it's well done that their influence over the state is dead forever.

One candidate lost, Red. It's politics. sh**t happens.

Right so America loses a valuable voice in the senate that has actually worked to solve important issues such as giving health care coverage to uninsured children and putting us on a path to energy independence, and will likely be replaced by a hyper partisan Palin clone that will be unwilling to get anything done the last two years of Obama's term. Sorry sounds like the country will be in a worse off place unless Murkowski endorses McAdams, runs a write-in, or meets with the Libertarians and agrees to make concessions to them if she is their nominee. This isn't turning out to be another 1994. In 1994 Moderates, Neo-Cons, Paleo-Cons, and Libertarian Conservatives actually worked together to accomplish a common goal of ousting Democratic control of congress. The Republicans are plagued by infighting, Alaska, Colorado, Florida, New York, etc., that is severely compromising their chances this fall.

I find the idea that the Republicans are failing a bit hard to believe, Red, I'm sorry. Have you paid attention to polling in the last three months? It's almost a straight flood of blue numbers. It's a well done thing that the Tea Party is winning only in the states where they can actually win a general election, isn't it? Where have they won this year? Utah, Kentucky, Nevada, Alaska, Colorado, some assorted house districts in which they can easily win anyway...why are you even complaining about that? The only reason they they even exist in New York is because that state's GOP has been effectively KIA for years now, and I suspect it is going to remain that way for a long time.

Honestly, I think you're seeing a different Murkowski to the one I am. She was a consistent warmonger, was pathetically weak on the disaster of an HCR bill, had terrible environmental policies...how are we losing a good voice in the Senate? Honestly, tell me how? Miller, at least, wants us out of the joke-frigging-tastic wars we're in. I'd call that one hell of an improvement.

Republicans should have been stronger on creating their own viable healthcare bill, and you didn't answer my question about O'Donnell challenging Castle.

Because it held no water in this argument. There's a difference between crazies like O'Donnell and Angle and respectable men like Miller.

Also, Red? Paul Ryan's roadmap.

[SvenssonRS]

    Now 46-35 Lamontagne. Interesting that his lead is still holding steady at 2,800 votes. In Wisconsin, Walker has opened up an 8% lead on Neumann.

Can Lamontagne win the general?  I don't see him as a crazy (at least, not significantly more than Ayotte)

I think he has a pretty good chance, what with not being a frigging crazy.

[SvenssonRS]

PPP are looking like pimps after this one. It must be said.

That is true. PPP has another in the bag.

If you can admit that PPP nailed this one, why can't you admit that O'Donnell is going to be defeated in November? It would take a literal miracle for her to turn those Favorable numbers around.

Get back to me with what the polls look like in mid to late October.

I agree that Coons Casey would win today, but all I'm saying is we can't get complacent about this one. The polls have changed really fast this year - usually in favor of tea party nutters the glorious Rick Santorum king of last minute comebacks.

Beet's 1st law of campaigns: When the numbers say A and the energy says B, A will move towards B.

All I'm saying is that Coons Casey needs some actual energy behind him and not just 'oh, he's a shoo-in, let's laugh it up' to get the win that admittedly he probably can get.

Yeah, sure, laugh. Treat Coons as a shoo-in. Know who else did that? Massachusetts Democrats with Martha Coakley.

The arrogance of people like you will be what gets that crazy bitch elected. We'll see who's laughing then - I guarantee America won't.