MSNBC/Marist has Obama & Romney basically tied in CO, NV & IA (user search)
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  MSNBC/Marist has Obama & Romney basically tied in CO, NV & IA (search mode)
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Author Topic: MSNBC/Marist has Obama & Romney basically tied in CO, NV & IA  (Read 5308 times)
backtored
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« on: May 31, 2012, 10:19:01 AM »

The idea that Colorado was lost to the GOP was one of the worst ideas of the last four years.  Only slightly less egregious than Obamacare and the HHS mandate.
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backtored
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« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2012, 11:24:42 AM »

The thing to look at is where Romney is stuck at in most of these polls, which is 44-46% and some times lower and that doesn't seem to really changing.

That's something an incumbent worries about.  What these polls show is that Romney has a lot of room to grow.  People who don't want to vote for the president will either vote for the challenger or stay home, they won't change their mind and just vote for President Obama.  That's why an incumbent who can't get over 50% in polling signals big trouble for that campaign.  If Romney is at 44 percent in October, then he'll worry.  But 44% in May/June--and ties in key swing states--is hardly a bad sign.
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backtored
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« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2012, 04:13:03 PM »

The thing to look at is where Romney is stuck at in most of these polls, which is 44-46% and some times lower and that doesn't seem to really changing.

Actually the thing to look at is Obama, who performed very well in all three of these states, winning each with the largest percentage taken by the winner since 1988.. is doing so badly

Obama is down TEN in Iowa, EIGHT in Colorado and SEVEN in Nevada
Romney is up THREE in Nevada from '08, and dead on in IA and CO, and all three of those McCain performances are the floor for Repubs in those states. Romney has plenty of growing room

What particularly strikes me is a week ago, NBC/Marist released FL, Ohio, Va.. and all showed Obama ahead 4-6%..  Now Florida, Ohio, Virginia are the 'easier' states for Romney to take back, and Nevada, Iowa, Colorado are supposedly the 'harder' ones.. yet Romney has Obama tied essentially in all three.  This shows momentum in Romney's favor in just the last week

I've always thought that Colorado and maybe Iowa would be easier to win than Ohio and Virginia.  The problem is that they're also considerably smaller and, thus, less electorally robust.
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