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Political Matrix E: 8.13, S: -6.09
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« on: October 31, 2023, 12:23:58 PM » |
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Trump at over 50% in a state which, on paper, shouldn't be that favorable for him is quite strong. Ramaswamy at only 1 is pretty funny.
72% of Trump supporters report that their mind is made up, so Trump is at 38%. (That's much stronger than what we've seen from IA or NH). For other candidates the numbers are trivial, which they were not in IA; only 3% report being mind-made-up Haley supporters and everyone else is at 1% or less. (2016 is correct that most voters do not have their minds made up, as elsewhere).
Otherwise, this poll just reiterates that the top four of these people are stunningly popular, if anything more so than the Selzer poll showed for Iowa. Apparently 80% of voters "would consider supporting" Trump (slightly different wording from Selzer, who asks if you are considering supporting), 72% each for both Haley and Scott, and 68% for DeSantis -- those are insane numbers all around! People really like their final four!
(Remaining candidates are not so popular, however. Only 37% would consider supporting Ramaswamy; only 36% would consider supporting Pence; and only 25% would consider supporting Christie. The others were not asked about.)
Anyway, they did ask for second places, so here's first place plus second place: Trump 66 Haley 41 DeSantis 35 (very strong seconds; I would guess he's still the most common second choice for Trump supporters) Scott 25 Pence 8 (also oddly common second choice) Ramaswamy 6 Christie 5 Burgum/Elder/Hutchinson/Johnson 1 each (all of them have 0 first choice, 1 second)
Really bad showing for Ramaswamy. I hadn't noticed how much he'd fallen nationally, either; he peaked at rounds-to-8% from September 19-23, but now he's down to 4% and basically in free-fall. Would be funny if he doesn't end up doing any better than Yang.
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