New York Siena : Biden +7

[Vosem]

Siena historically has a good record within the state of New York, right? Although I agree that their polls this year have not been very consistent.

I also agree with jaichind that this is probably not a good poll for Trump. Many national cross-tab patterns are suggestive of a situation where Republican gains are concentrated in the largest American megacities, which are mostly not found in competitive states. NYC is the most megacity of them all and it would make sense for patterns flowing from density or recent immigrant background to hit it harder than other places.

[Vosem]

Siena historically has a good record within the state of New York, right? Although I agree that their polls this year have not been very consistent.

I also agree with jaichind that this is probably not a good poll for Trump. Many national cross-tab patterns are suggestive of a situation where Republican gains are concentrated in the largest American megacities, which are mostly not found in competitive states. NYC is the most megacity of them all and it would make sense for patterns flowing from density or recent immigrant background to hit it harder than other places.

Can we trash this notion that “this poll is bad for Trump”? NY has not had an overwhelming influence on the popular vote since the 1940s. Unless Trump outright wins the state, the NY results wont swing the national vote by 1% (if even that). If we get polls with Trump within 10% in California and over 15% in Texas, then this argument can arise  

If your argument is that, “this NY poll means there is a similar swing in Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, and San Francisco too” … the issue is that NY is facing a more vicious anti-Democrat backlash because of the migrant crisis than those other cities are facing, and Zeldin’s performance gives Repubs a groundwork for a swing

I don't know about Boston or San Francisco, but I suspect there is one in Los Angeles (very much so), Chicago, Miami, and other cities which have a bad "migrant crisis". I think it is strongest in NYC, as my own post says, but I don't think it is at all limited to NYC.

California polls largely have had Trump doing 10 points better than 2020, but nobody is taking this seriously because CA polls always overestimate Republicans and also this doesn't put Republicans anywhere close to winning statewide (whereas Zeldin, who wasn't even particularly moderate, losing 47-53 in a Leans R year feels like something a different Republican in a different year could turn into an actual victory). Maybe this time around they're right, though.

[Vosem]

Urban immigrant enclaves can flip politically on a dime. What matters in Queens and Brooklyn is probably the most dissimilar to the rest of the US. I doubt the result will be this close but there’s a scenario where the diversity of NYC could often start working against Democrats instead of for them.

I think it isn't happening evenly in every metropolitan area, with the two greatest predictors being that more educated metropolitan areas (like Boston and San Francisco) and those with less recent immigrant background are lagging, but I don't think it's only NYC which is seeing a backlash. In the context of the national environment, I think Democrats did quite poorly in both the LA and Chicago areas in 2022.

(I think this is also associated with a pretty tight pattern where areas whose population is declining start trending Republican -- it's been pretty widely reported that NYC, LA, and Chicago are all losing population. I think this is not as true for the Bay Area.)

Urban immigrant enclaves certainly do not flip "on a dime", but they can have their own trends dissociated from national ones based on parochial issues they care about.