CO-4: Boebert in hot water again (1/7)

[Vosem]

If Buck has become such a moderate, why did he vote against the defense appropriate rule (along with only 4 other Republicans)?

Buck isn't "such a moderate"; he's a figure on the right half of the Freedom Caucus. It seems like he's someone who's vaguely gotten disinterested in Congress, though; he got a scare in the 2022 convention/primary from a nobody running basically just on "new blood" rather than any concrete differences and he's considering resigning to go pursue a career in media.

It's probably to avoid a primary. In time his district might be the only GOP voting district left in the state.

CO-05 is trending blue?

Yes, and actually very fast, but it also remains very red overall. It swung from Trump+28 in 2016 (60/32) to Trump+18 in 2020 (58/40).

[Vosem]

There are Republicans who legitimately, genuinely oppose the witch-hunt into Joe Biden. And there are people like Ken Buck, who are very clearly gunning for cushy jobs in the media.

No, I don't think there are? I think 'investigate the administration very thoroughly', and correlates like Hunter's career being a serious issue, is a goal held by literally everyone in the party, including the members representing the most normally-Democratic seats like D'Esposito or Duarte.

[Vosem]

Anyway, two individuals who seem to be making moves towards running here are St. Rep. Richard Holtorf and former Douglas County DA George Brauchler, who was the Republican nominee for Attorney General in 2022. Both are quite right-wing -- Brauchler primaried (well, convention-ed) out more moderate Republican incumbent Cynthia Coffman in 2018 to get the nomination -- but Brauchler is considered probably more amenable to national leadership and is more of a rising star (he lost the state Attorney General race in 2018 by 7 points, 52-45, which is really not that bad all things considered). Holtorf has been discussed here already.

In a direct race between the two of them Brauchler will have both a money advantage and a geographical advantage, but Holtorf probably can't be counted out: in particular he will probably get the convention endorsement. (That counts for less than you think, though: Buck lost the convention endorsement in 2022 to a random nobody but still won the primary fairly easily). Brauchler is a much likelier eventual-statewide candidate in a good year, or if trends shift, though.

(The name that would be field-clearing here is former Senator Cory Gardner, who represented this seat before Buck and remains really strong in the area, but he hasn't made any moves towards running and is apparently busy as one of the main guys in the Tim Scott campaign.)

[Vosem]

Anyway, two individuals who seem to be making moves towards running here are St. Rep. Richard Holtorf and former Douglas County DA George Brauchler, who was the Republican nominee for Attorney General in 2022. Both are quite right-wing -- Brauchler primaried (well, convention-ed) out more moderate Republican incumbent Cynthia Coffman in 2018 to get the nomination -- but Brauchler is considered probably more amenable to national leadership and is more of a rising star (he lost the state Attorney General race in 2018 by 7 points, 52-45, which is really not that bad all things considered). Holtorf has been discussed here already.

In a direct race between the two of them Brauchler will have both a money advantage and a geographical advantage, but Holtorf probably can't be counted out: in particular he will probably get the convention endorsement. (That counts for less than you think, though: Buck lost the convention endorsement in 2022 to a random nobody but still won the primary fairly easily). Brauchler is a much likelier eventual-statewide candidate in a good year, or if trends shift, though.

(The name that would be field-clearing here is former Senator Cory Gardner, who represented this seat before Buck and remains really strong in the area, but he hasn't made any moves towards running and is apparently busy as one of the main guys in the Tim Scott campaign.)

Do you think Heidi Ganahl might run here?

She does live in the seat (as does most of the COGOP leadership, really), so it's possible, but I haven't seen a lot of interest.